Friday, October 29, 2010

Frameshmania Week 8 Preview!

In a 17-week season, we're like sorta halfway through with the season already!  And worse than that, since the fantasy season is only 13 weeks long, we're more than halfway done!  That makes me sad.  You know the deal by now.

6-1 Sabotage the League 
5-2 Salt Lake City Big Tymers 
4-3 J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets

4-2-1 Gym Tan Laundry
2-4-1 Delco's Side-arm Stud
2-5 Ease it In, Don't Forsett 
2-5 CodyRansom's Crew
2-5 Hometown Mamas

Sidearm Stud and Ease it In continue to freefall, each losing at least their last three games.  The bottom of the standings are getting crowded, while the cream is rising to the top.  And by "the cream" I mean this guy *gestures to himself*.

This past week was an emotional rollercoaster, as I thought I was going to win big thanks to Michael Turner finally showing up with a 26-point day and double-digit performances from four other players on Sunday.  With a ten-point lead, Tony Romo, and Ahmad Bradshaw against Hakeem Nicks going into the Monday Night game, I figured that at least a 20-point victory was in store.  Well, Nicks scored twice in the first half and Romo got injured (and will be out for the year for fantasy purposes), so I had to sweat out the remainder of the game, but eventually came out of it with a 101-97 victory.

This week begins the second round of matchups with teams, so I'm back to playing my mom.  She beat up on me really badly the last couple years, but this year she's having trouble starting the right guys, and Drew Brees, her usual stalwart, has been underperforming.  She has a whopping SEVEN out of sixteen players on bye right now, so she will really have to work the waiver wire to fill her roster.  Fortunately for her, most of the guys on bye are of the backup WR/TE/DEF/K variety.

Last week's roster:

QB1 Tony Romo
RB1 Michael Turner
RB7 Ahmad Bradshaw
RB3 Jamaal Charles
WR2 Greg Jennings
WR6 Brandon Lloyd
TE2 Zach Miller

D/ST Chiefs
K Mason Crosby

WR5 Malcom Floyd
WR7 Pierre Garcon
TE4 Owen Daniels
RB2 Cedric Benson
WR1 Andre Johnson
WR4 Mike Wallace
RB6 Arian Foster
Bye week players this week:
Turner, Bradshaw

Roster Moves:
Dropped Chiefs D for Rams D
Dropped Floyd for Ryan Fitzpatrick
Dropped Romo for Michael Vick
Dropped Crosby for Dan Carpenter (he's the Dolphins kicker)

With Romo out, I knew my top priority was to scour the free agency pool for possible fill-ins.  Ryan Fitzpatrick perfectly fits the bill, having been the NUMBER ONE fantasy quarterback for the last four weeks.  Since I don't expect him to keep that up, I also picked up Michael Vick, who was dropped after getting hurt several weeks ago.  I figure that after his bye week this week he will be back to close-to-full health and will be a solid weekly start for me in relieft.  The Rams play the worst-against-fantasy-defenses Panthers this week, and I believe this will be the third or fourth time I'm playing a team against this offense this year.  Matt Moore is back for the Panthers, and he looked good enough last week that I'm a little concerned, but aside from the fluky Lions game the Rams D has actually been pretty good.  Crosby's got a bye in a couple weeks and is playing the Jets, so I figured I'd make the switch at kicker now just to keep things fresh.

 Lineup changes:
Fitzpatrick (v. Chiefs) in for Romo (injury)Johnson (v. Colts) in for Lloyd (v. 49ers)

Carpenter (v. Bengals) in for Crosby (v. Jets)
Foster (v. Colts) in for Bradshaw (BYE)
Benson (v. Dolphins) in for Turner (BYE)
Garcon (v. Texans) in for Jennings (v. Jets)
Rams D (v. Panthers) in for Chiefs D (v. Bills)

Foster and Johnson were on byes last week and have been solid for me, so they're automatic starts.  Not to mention, Foster got 41 points for me the last time he played the Colts.  Fitzpatrick has a reasonable matchup and Vick's on a bye, so...  Benson is getting a lot of touches, at least.  He really isn't very good, but the Bengals seem to be committed to him to some degree.  With injuries to Dallas Clark and Austin Collie and a matchup against the worst pass defense in the league, Garcon seems like a great start, although I'm a little worried that he appeared on the injury report this week.  Not only that, Darelle Revis says he's 100% healthy after the bye, and surely Jennings will draw his attention this week.  The Bills, despite not winning a game, actually have been putting up points (thanks to Fitzpatrick), so I don't want to risk the Chiefs this week. 

With my mom having so many players on a bye, I have a pretty good shot at taking this one down, provided I get what I expect from my big names.  Let's take a look at this week's matchup (at least as much as I can guess):

Fitzpatrick (v. Chiefs) vs. Drew Brees (v. Steelers) -- Fitzpatrick +2
Benson (v. Dolphins) vs. Steven Jackson (v. Panthers) -- Jackson +5
Foster (v. Colts) vs. Thomas Jones (v. Bills) -- Jones +4
Charles (v. Bills) vs. Bye week fill-in (v. opponent) -- Charles +3
Johnson (v. Colts) vs. Brandon Marshall (v. Bengals) -- Marshall +4
Garcon (v. Texans) vs. S. Holmes/M. Williams (v. GB/ARI) -- Garcon +5
Miller (v. Seahawks) vs. Bye week fill-in (v. opponent) -- Miller +4
Rams D (v. Panthers) vs. Titans D (v. Chargers) -- Push
Carpenter (v. Bengals) vs. Bye week fill-in (v. opponent)-- push

Verdict: I win by a hair (one point), which is surprising since she has so many people out.  I think this whole matchup is going to hinge on the Texans/Colts and Bills/Chiefs games, since I have five players in those two games alone.

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