Wednesday, August 29, 2012

Like the Ten Commandments, but you shouldn't drop them


            Not sure if you’ve heard, but football season starts in exactly a week, albeit in a very teasing way, with Giants/Cowboys followed by 3 days of emptiness.  As anyone with a public forum for their opinion would do, I’ll take the upcoming time as an opportunity to bombard you with predictions about what will happen over the next 17 weeks.  This time around, it’ll be team-based, as in where will each team finish in 2012.  Next time, it will be one of those cliché “guys I have strong opinions about in fantasy” pieces, but I’ll try to figure out a way to spice it up so you don’t go crying to Matthew Berry.

            As for the here and the now, there’s really not much else to say here, except to give a little recap of how I did last year at such a prediction game.  After all, what’s the point in making predictions if you’re not held accountable for them afterward?  I’ll give each team’s predicted record this time last season, their actual record, and my prediction for 2012.  Sound good?  Of course not, this is a text medium.  Moving on.

AFC EAST





2011 Predicted
2011 Actual
Difference
2012 Predicted
Patriots
12-4
13-3
1
13-3
Jets
11-5
8-8
3
6-10
Dolphins
7-9
6-10
1
3-13
Bills
3-13
6-10
3
7-9

            OK, so I had a little more confidence in the Jets than was appropriate, but I think that a lot of people had them doing better than they ended up doing, what with their defensive reputation at the time.  The Bills started off making me look really stupid, but fell off quickly with the regression of Ryan Fitzpatrick and the injury to Fred Jackson.  Compared to a worst-case scenario of being off by 41 games (i.e. picking the Pats to go 0-16, Jets 16-0, Dolphins 16-0, Bills 16-0), missing by 8 is pretty good, no?
            As for this season, I get what the motivation is behind the Dolphins ridding themselves of malcontents Brandon Marshall and Vontae Davis, but to everyone else it just looks like they’re throwing away all of their good players.  No way they do better than 5-11.  The Jets look like the Red Sox of football, but without the big cuddly fan favorite to keep things light – Nick Mangold’s beard is gone, right? – there will be some more regression from two straight AFC Championship appearances.  And don’t even start with Tebow.  The Pats gained Brandon Lloyd but lost some guys on the offensive line, so we’ll call it a push, and the Bills improved their defense but still have the afraid-of-winter Fitzpatrick at the controls.

AFC NORTH





2011 Predicted
2011 Actual
Difference
2012 Predicted
Steelers
12-4
12-4
0
10-6
Ravens
11-5
12-4
1
12-4
Browns
6-10
4-12
2
3-13
Bengals
3-13
9-7
6
8-8

            I haven’t looked at the rest of the divisions, but the Bengals have to be one of my worst calls last year.  I cited the loss of Palmer, Ochocinco, Owens, and Johnathan Joseph as death knells, but failed to see the potential in the Red Rifle, Andy Dalton, and some guy named AJ Green.  The Steelers and Ravens were easy to predict, as they’re almost always good, and I had a little more confidence in the growth pattern of Colt McCoy (and the health of Peyton Hillis) than maybe I should have.  Out of a possible 45 games I could have been off by, 9 is still not bad.
            This year, I see the continued issues on the Steelers’ offensive line (with an injury to their top pick on the line this year already) as well as the injury to Mendenhall and Wallace’s recently-ended holdout as reason enough to downgrade them.  The Ravens have looked great so far in the preseason, but even with a downgrade to the Steelers I have concerns about their defense (read: T-Sizzle, Ball So Hard U alum, being hurt), so I can’t move them up any.  I think the Bengals snuck up on some teams last year, so I don’t think they’ll get any better absent any real upgrades offensively.  And with a rookie QB who’s struggled thus far and a rookie running back who hasn’t played yet, the Browns really can’t be expected to do much at all.

AFC SOUTH





2011 Predicted
2011 Actual
Difference
2012 Predicted
Texans
10-6
10-6
0
10-6
Colts
9-7
2-14
7
5-11
Jaguars
5-11
5-11
0
5-11
Titans
5-11
9-7
4
9-7

            Well it didn’t take long to find a prediction worse than the Bengals, huh.  Granted, at the time there was still a strong chance Peyton Manning would play, so you really can’t fault me here.  Frankly, it should have been worse, because the Texans lost two quarterbacks and Andre Johnson for several weeks, and the Jaguars somehow managed to win 5 games with Blaine Gabbert starting most games.  Missed 11 out of a possible 44 here – moving the wrong direction.
            With Andrew Luck in the fold, the Colts should be better, but an entirely revamped offense and defense (did I hear that their 90-man roster had 40+ rookies on it?) limit the team’s upside.  The Texans did have some major injuries last year, but the division wasn’t very good for the most part and their defense was much better than expected, so I’m seeing a bit of a downturn.  The Titans have a theoretically rebounding Chris Johnson and might get some Kenny Britt this year, but who knows what their defense or Jake Locker will do over the course of a season.  The Jaguars will be blacked out, so who really cares.

AFC WEST





2011 Predicted
2011 Actual
Difference
2012 Predicted
Chargers
11-5
8-8
3
9-7
Chiefs
7-9
7-9
0
8-8
Raiders
7-9
8-8
1
7-9
Broncos
5-11
8-8
3
10-6
             The tightest division I’ve ever seen, it was hard for anyone to make really terrible predictions about these teams.  Frankly, the Chiefs’ record should have been better had Jamaal Charles, Tony Moeaki, Matt Cassel, and Eric Berry not gotten hurt, and who knows what would have happened to the Broncos if God hadn’t intervened.  While getting 7 wrong seems good, being out of a possible 33 makes it my second-worst thus far.
            The Chargers (especially Philip Rivers) disappointed last year, and after losing Vincent Jackson and having questions about whether Ryan Mathews can shoulder the load in the backfield (get it?), I don’t see them improving much.  The Broncos gained Peyton Manning, but I have serious concerns about how consistent he can be, and the rest of the division is still pretty good, so I’ll give them a good-not-great record.  The Chiefs get all of the aforementioned players back and add Peyton Hillis, so they should be pretty formidable, but Matt Cassel is still Matt Cassel.  As for the Raiders, it would be really exciting to see a top-flight quarterback run their offense with their skill position players.  What’s that, Carson Palmer?  Oh, I thought you said something.

NFC EAST





2011 Predicted
2011 Actual
Difference
2012 Predicted
Eagles
11-5
8-8
3
10-6
Cowboys
11-5
8-8
3
7-9
Giants
9-7
9-7
0
8-8
Redskins
4-12
5-11
1
6-10

            Let’s just glaze over the Eagles’ season, hm?  How bout them Cowboys?  They once again disappointed, fading down the stretch and missing the playoffs.  I had the Giants pegged perfectly, although I would have had them missing the playoffs instead of winning the Super Bowl.  Blech.  The ‘Skins were slightly more competent than I predicted with Sexy Rexy at the controls, but still weren’t very good.  Missed 7 out of a possible 36, which is one of my better prediction jobs.  Perhaps familiarity helped?
            Assuming Michael Vick plays a decent enough amount of games and the Eagles’ defense improves slightly, 10-6 is a very doable record.  The Cowboys have serious concerns on their offensive line and with their pass-catchers (Austin has a hamstring, Witten has a spleen, and Bryant has a babysitter), so even with all that talent, they’ll be hard pressed to get big production out of them.  Yes, the G-Men won the Super Bowl, but keep in mind that this is the second time that they’ve done that after being mediocre for most of the season.  Don’t overrate them.  The ‘Skins make a major upgrade at quarterback, even with RGIII being a rookie, and add a half-decent top receiver in Pierre Garcon, so they should be more competitive.

NFC NORTH





2011 Predicted
2011 Actual
Difference
2012 Predicted
Packers
12-4
15-1
3
13-3
Bears
8-8
8-8
0
9-7
Lions
8-8
10-6
2
9-7
Vikings
7-9
3-13
4
3-13

            Raise your hand if you had the Packers going 15-1 before the season started last year.  I talked about Rodgers throwing for 4500 yards and 40 TD’s (he had 4600 and 45), but that’s a lot to project.  I was wary on the Lions, but they outperformed many people’s expectations, and until Matt Forte and Jay Cutler got hurt, the Bears were doing similarly.  The Donovan McNabb experiment was terrible for the Vikes, and it’s not like Christian Ponder did much more for them.  Missed 9 out of a possible 46, though, which is actually my best prediction thus far.
            The Pack had the worst defense in the league and a mechanistic offense last year, and I think both sort of come back to the pack (pun INTENDED) this year.  The Bears look good on paper, but I can’t really throw my trust behind Cutler and an Ur-lacking defense (I’M ON FIRE, BABY!).  The Lions’ defense was inconsistent last year, and someone other than Calvin Johnson really needs to step up on that offense for their success to continue.  The Vikings will probably not win a game in their division, so they’re going to struggle to win even 5 games with Peterson recovering from an ACL/MCL tear.

NFC SOUTH





2011 Predicted
2011 Actual
Difference
2012 Predicted
Falcons
12-4
10-6
2
12-4
Saints
11-5
13-3
2
10-6
Buccaneers
10-6
4-12
6
7-9
Panthers
3-13
6-10
3
7-9

            OK, so sue me for underestimating His Breesness.  And overreacting to an explosive preseason for the Falcons (DO YOU SEE WHAT’S HAPPENING HERE?  THEY DID THIS LAST YEAR TOO!).  Obviously I was quite wrong about the capabilities of Josh Freeman and Cam Newton, but a lot of pundits had Tampa as a young up-and-coming team, but they just fell apart after a certain point in the season.  By far my worst set of picks, I missed a whopping 13 out of 45.
            I already made my all-caps pitch about the Falcons, so we’ll move along.  The Saints lost a lot of players / coaches and may lose more than that with Hurricane Isaac coming, and while they should overcome to some extent, that along with a change in defensive philosophy tempers my expectations.  The Bucs added Vincent Jackson and rookie Doug Martin for the offense, so they should be a little better, but in this division it’s not their year.  Cam Newton needs to get more consistent and to find another passing target for me to move them higher, simple as that.

NFC WEST





2011 Predicted
2011 Actual
Difference
2012 Predicted
Rams
8-8
2-14
6
6-10
Cardinals
8-8
8-8
0
7-9
49ers
6-10
13-3
7
10-6
Seahawks
4-12
7-9
3
7-9

            This is the division that most prognosticators bombed, as the Rams flopped after a promising rookie year from Sam Bradford and the 49ers vaulted to the top of the NFC race.  The Cardinals ended up with a better record than most people would guess given that their quarterback situation was brutal (and, in fact, has not changed this season).  The ‘Hawks were one of the teams I thought were actually trying to throw the season to get Andrew Luck, so they obviously outperformed my expectations.  Saving the worst for last, clearly, as I was 16 games off out of a possible 44, more than 40% incorrect.
            There’s simply no way that an Alex-Smith-led team goes better than 11-5 in two straight seasons.  On a similar vein, I have enough faith in Sam Bradford’s talent to give him a few wins back this season.  The Seahawks have an exciting new quarterback in Russell Wilson, but he is a rookie, and I don’t think Marshawn Lynch does quite what he did last year in a contract year.  If you have two quarterbacks, you have none, so we’ll leave the Cardinals analysis at that.


So what did we end up with?  Here’s what my playoff teams look like (arbitrarily breaking ties):

AFC
NFC
Patriots
Packers
Ravens
Falcons
Texans
Eagles
Broncos
49ers
Steelers
Saints
Chargers
Bears

I’m pretty satisfied here, although only 3 teams are different from last year, and if you read last year’s posts, you know that there have been at least 5 teams turned over each of the last several years.  Oh well.  In case you want two teams for that, let’s go with the Steelers and 49ers getting replaced by the Titans and Seahawks.  That better?