Throwing down analysis like a Donovan McNabb pass

We liked the Batman and Robin thing so much, we made a sequel.  The box office numbers aren’t in yet, though.

Bills over Patriots (34-31): my belief here is the hype over Brady breaking the yards-in-a-season record is beginning to go to his head (which in turn has caused him to throw as sloppy as Joe, whoever that immortalized-by-sandwich, careless-with-meat Joe was). if this is true (STAT-JECTION: 28 of Tom Brady’s 45 passing attempts came in the final 32 minutes of the game, which started with the Pats holding a 21-7 lead), it’s interesting that there is a pressure that Brady loses poise over, considering his consistent & effective leadership with a generally humble offense (sans Moss). there is an interesting thread in the NFL right now that makes a great case for an offense being made by the Quarterback… Rodgers (sans Jennings), Brees, and Brady are all helming explosive teams without, de facto, easily, explosive weapons. the counter-example being the game that follows.

Giants over Eagles (29-16): in mythology, more often than not, birds are fierce and formidable, and giants are generally dumb, underwhelming and mostly used as props to encourage shorter people to not take the whole “bigger is better” thing too seriously. but unfortunately, to the chagrin of Second Life users, this is real life… and in real life, the Eagles offense is a mess, proving their hype a myth, and the Eagles defense even less… (STAT-JECTION: Eli Manning had an 81.2 ESPN Total QBR in this game, third in the league this week) my prediction about Vick flopping is gaining more cred each game… (STAT-JECTION: Vick posted an abysmal 24.6 Total QBR this week, 26^th in the league, and is currently ranked 23^rd in the statistic for the season) but to his benefit, Vick shouldn’t have been playing that game whatsoever. and while many are singing is praises for staying in the pocket and playing the conventional quarterback role, one must remember that he wasn’t given a 100mil dollar contract to play Polly Pocket, but rather, was hired to act like loose change and slip through his own hole. considering the Eagles’ unremitting red zone issues, who better to throw up six than Vick… yea, seriously, Andy Reid, where’s the Vick six? at 1-2 it looks like the Eagles are going to do their best Sisyphus impression for the rest of the year. the only thing in good light I will say about the Eagles is that Lesean McCoy looks as bright as a bald head used as night light when options are tight.  (STAT-JECTION: McCoy is second in the league in rushing despite being 8^th in attempts, and with Chris Johnson, Arian Foster, Frank Gore, and Jamaal Charles essentially out of the picture, is well on his way to a top-5 fantasy season)

49ers over Bengals (13-8): this game was about as interesting as spraying a wet painting with a water bottle while also attempting to watch it dry. Gore looks like his bulb is out, like your favorite gardenias during winter. (STAT-JECTION: Gore has received 2 more carries than the aforementioned McCoy, yet has rushed for less than half the yards and three fewer touchdowns)

Saints over Texans (40-33):  Schaub and Brees both fulfilling their talent obligations. Henderson, again, throwing up big yards by catching Brees’ ideally-positioned throws. (STAT-JECTION: Henderson is 7^th in the league in receiving yards on fewer receptions than any of the top 20 receivers) Mark Ingram is beginning to come out of his woodwork like the face of a craftsman’s lover all outta muses. That game wining touchdown by Ingram had all the fire of a Peterson-esque run….something like a bull in a…..bull shop.

Panthers over Jaguars (16-10): Finally, a much deserved win for Cam Newton. Perhaps a little rain-addled, but this proves that Cam’s got what it takes to obtain a win even through stagnancy: by making up for 3 wasted quarters in the last half of the fourth quarter.  The only thing notable about the Jaguars was Maurice Jones-Drew, who threw up another big game, which says to me that unless defenses begin targeting him alone (which they should be…and more effectively) he’ll finish as a top 8ish fantasy back for the year (STAT-JECTION: Jones-Drew is currently 9^th among running backs, brought down mostly by his single touchdown thus far – keep in mind that after averaging 12 touchdowns a game from 2006 to 2009, he had just 5 last year)

Lions over Vikings (26-23): the second game the Vikings gave up a win when having a 20pt lead. (STAT-JECTION: The Vikings also led their first game by 10 points at halftime) that’s like if you were still to lose in a Magic the Gathering game after you’ve already depleted your opponent’s life total to 0… can that happen? apparently with the Vikings it can. nonetheless, Adrian Peterson put up a nice game for fantasy owners… (STAT-JECTION: Peterson has 36 carries in the first half of games this year, and the Vikings have led 54-7 after those carries.  Despite his team having the lead, he has 22 carries in the second half of games, and the team has been outscored 67-6)  as did Stafford attempting to join the league’s obsession with 400+ yard games this year. he’s not quite there though… like that Little Engine That Could… but not quite yet.

team of the week: Bills – they hadn’t won a game against the Patriots in almost a decade, come on.

player of the week: not Chris Johnson - where are the feet man (STAT-JECTION: Johnson has two feet)

Week 3's Trrrials and Trrribulations

Since necessity is the mother of alliteration, I have decided to try to make this triumphs-tragedies-trends thing… well… a trend.  However, in the spirit of whimsy I will be adding another piece called Trail Mix, which is a quick random piece of information for you to munch on.  Again, I’m looking mostly at individual performances from Week 3 that are anomalous either positively or negatively, as well as events that I think are likely to continue.

RAVENS 37, RAMS 7

TRIUMPH: Ravens rookie WR Torrey Smith caught his first three receptions of his career for 133 yards and 3 touchdowns, all in the first quarter of their game against the Rams.  Keep in mind that one game does not a stud make.

TRAGEDY: Speaking of one game and studs, Steven Jackson had just 4 carries in the loss while Cadillac Williams had 18.  However, keep in mind that the Ravens were leading 21-0 in the first quarter, and the team wanted to make sure Jackson left the game healthy since the game was out of hand.

TREND: Sam Bradford appears to be vulnerable to a sophomore slump as much as anyone, completing just 51 percent of his passes thus far this year and already has 3 fumbles, all of which have ended in opponents’ touchdowns.

TRAIL MIX: Joe Flacco had been taking some flak for his flaccid play last year, but while he has thrown for under 200 yards in 4 of his last 6 regular-season games, he has thrown for an average of 306 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT in his team’s two wins this year, by a combined score of 72-14.

RAIDERS 34, JETS 24

TRIUMPH: Shonn Greene caught 7 passes in this game.  He already has at least half of the receptions and receiving yards that he had all of last year.  However, LaDainian Tomlinson is still the pass-catching back on this team (as shown by his team-leading 116 receiving yards in this game).

TRAGEDY: The Jets outran their opponents by 50 yards per game last year.  This year, they’re getting outrun by 50 yards per game.  However, before this game that was only 15 yards per game.  Don’t worry, Jets fans.  As much as I would like you to.

TREND: Darren McFadden is an all-out monster, showing the burst and power that he did in his career in Arkansas.  He leads the league in rushing and has four 100-yard games in his last 6.

TRAIL MIX: Two years ago in this matchup, Mark Sanchez got a lot of attention for eating a hot dog on the sideline.  Perhaps if he had put a little more mustard on some of his throws, the Jets may have won this time.

SAINTS 40, TEXANS 33

TRIUMPH: James Casey, whose position is the famed H-back (a tight-end/running back hybrid of sorts), came out of nowhere to reel in 5 catches, 126 yards, and a touchdown.  Maybe he sticks around, but there are a number of important mouths to feed before his.

TRAGEDY: The Texans defense had allowed just 10 points per game in their first two games, and then allowed 40.  It was the Saints though.

TREND: The Saints ran the ball 22 times for 100 yards, and no more than 9 and 38 went to any one player.  As far as fantasy is concerned, I’m not seeing much coming from back there.  At least when Brees spreads it around through the air there’s 30 receptions to go around.

TRAIL MIX: 9 players from this game scored in the top 55 among fantasy scorers this week.  No player in the 49ers-Bengals game made the top 60.

PACKERS 27, BEARS 17

TRIUMPH: Ryan Grant received more carries and ran for 87 more yards than James Starks in this game, which is a stark (see what I did there?) difference from what we’ve seen thus far this year and is likely to be more balanced in the future.

TRAGEDY: Matt Forte ran the ball 9 times for 2 yards.  Jay Cutler ran 3 times for 11 yards and led the team.

TREND: The Packers have allowed the second-most passing yards in the league this year, which is certainly related to losing a couple key pieces to injury.  This is not going to get too much better.  Also, it’s interesting to point out that 2011 offensive juggernauts Buffalo, Green Bay, and New England are all in the bottom 10 in pass defense.

TRAIL MIX: Jermichael Finley scored 3 touchdowns in this game.  Jon-Michael Frank is afraid of Dutch clowns with fame.

Week 2: Kinda Weak Too (if you're a Colts or Chiefs fan)

This week, Jon-Michael and I are trying something new, where he writes his rapid reactions to the games played in the previous week and I interject with information that either supports or refutes his wackily worded whims.  Best of both worlds, as far as I'm concerned.  Well, without the monkey on a unicycle.

Browns over Colts (27-19): don’t be surprised if you hear commentators talk about how lacking the Colts are without Manning as much as Joe Buck praises Michael Vick as the second coming of himself. if sports analysts were in a high school English composition class they would be graded on how well they can carry one thesis through an entire semester’s work—meaning, their thoughts on their first day are exactly the same as their last.  although with Joe Buck’s case, he’s made Vick a victim to this for two seasons now, which is like having to rewatch the only rerun of Full House that you don’t think improves life to the umpth degree (which I’m not sure actually exists, but let’s just say it does for comparison’s sake). nonetheless, I digress. right… what I’ve learned from watching this game is two things: one, for fantasy, pick up the Colts’ kicker and start him in place of your three RB/WR starters (including any and all flex spots) because Collins can’t get a ball into the end zone to save his return-from-retired life.  (STAT-JECTION: Said kicker Adam Vinatieri scored the same amount of fantasy points this week as Andre Johnson, Matt Forte, and Ray Rice) and two, just when you thought there were no deliveries from carries on Sundays, Peyton Hillis showed up (94 yds, 2 tds), proving he is still a top 15 back.

Steelers over Seahawks (24-0): zero is a useful number when you have any defense on your fantasy team that inspires the opposing team to aspire to that many points, and also when you are wondering how many missing limbs you currently have. which all Mendenhall was missing to have a huge fantasy day was that touchdown that Redman stole from him. it is also worth noting that Mike Wallace has a Mohawk and also has been hawking people to making his way as reliable WR (fantasy and reality alike). (STAT-JECTION: Wallace has two straight 8-reception, 100-yard games to start the season, and 5 straight 100-yard games overall)  I think that anomalous Steelers’ performance, or lack their of, in week one is going to fuel a redemption cause that they are going exploit for the rest of the season like a suspicious wife on Sunday with a remote control watch.

Saints over Bears (30-13): akin to my previous metaphors, I think Brees is incited to prove himself on par with Rodgers and Brady to redeem his premier quarterback status. with a receiver like Henderson committing himself to monster plays it shant be that hard. (STAT-JECTION: Despite Henderson’s reputation as a big-play guy, he had just four 50+ yard receptions the past two seasons, as compared to twelve from 2006-2008)  honestly, watching that play was better than seeing Leonardo Dicaprio drown in the Titantic. and I’m still not buying Forte, especially one of those crappy cars Kia makes.

Packers over Panthers (30-23): Fig Newtons are delicious; Cam Newton is vicious.  (STAT-JECTION: Fig Newtons are a good source of fiber, with 5% DV per cookie) 

Lions over Chiefs (48-3): chiefly, the Chiefs, now chief-less (Jamaal Charles) couldn’t even cheat to compete with any team. and let’s not get too excited about the Lions… they have yet to play a formidable opponent, winning week one on of the worst defenses in the league, the Buccaneers.  (STAT-JECTION: The Bucs were top-10 against the pass and in scoring defense last season, but were bottom-5 against the run.  Think of them what you will)

Buccaneers over Vikings (24-20): the Buccaneers, after turning in after a miserable first half came back and ushered LaGarrette Blount in for two TDs. which, proved that he can do other things than punch people in the face to show his dismay over a loss. Peterson also stepped up to prove his top 10 running back obligation in having a 120 yd day and gaining 6000 career yards. which is pretty impressive considering I spent a good part of my childhood being told to exit most people’s yards.   

Player of the Week:

Tony Romo – punctures his lung, takes a breather, but breathes life back into the ‘Boys at the end of the game, so their fans can exhale.  Even if he can’t.

Team of the Week:

Bills – Yes, they only beat the Chiefs and Raiders, but they lead the league in scoring and rushing yards with a quarterback from Harvard and a running back from Coe College.

Fantasy Football Week 1: Triumphs, Tragedies, and Trends

In case you didn’t notice based on the previous post, throughout the NFL season, Jon-Michael and I are both going to contribute pieces reflecting our opinions about both real and fantasy football.  Seeing as Jon-Michael claimed the cleats-on-turf version, I’m going to take a shot at the fingers-on-mouse kind.

Since you have undoubtedly read the title of this post, you probably have a bit of an idea what I’m going to write here – and an idea of how much alliteration contemplation it took to get to that point.  Given what we’ve seen in the first slate of games of the season, I’ll give my two cents on which events were anomalies (triumphs / tragedies) and should not be counted on in the future and which were worth watching for upcoming games (trends).

TRIUMPH: Chad Henne throws for 400 yards and two touchdowns and rushes for 60 and a touchdown.

TRAGEDY: BenJarvus Green-Ellis (drafted 21^st among running backs) gets 7 carries versus Danny Woodhead’s 14 (drafted 45^th among running backs)

TREND: The Patriots allowed the third most passing yards in the league last year, and it looks like that will be the case again.  As far as fantasy is concerned, I wouldn’t mind starting almost any QB against them.

TRIUMPH: Until Monday night, Cam Newton (in his first career NFL start) and Steve Smith (whose quarterback was in his first career NFL start) were the top two scorers in standard-scoring leagues.

TRAGEDY: DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, both drafted in the top 25 among running backs, combined for 19 rushes and 56 yards. 

TREND: The Cardinals pass defense is going to have a rough time this year, especially after trading away Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie.  Guess what that means?  A lot of passing from Kevin Kolb as well.

TRIUMPH: Cedric Benson rushed 25 times for 121 yards and a touchdown, but it was 24 for 82 with no touchdowns until his last rush, a 39-yard TD which saw him run through a hole Cedric the Entertainer could have run through.

TRAGEDY: Chris Johnson and LeGarrette Blount combined for 14 rushes and 39 yards.  The Titans got dominated in time-of-possession and had an 80-yard passing touchdown to limit Johnson’s touches, and the Bucs got into passing mode after falling behind the Lions.

TREND: Ben Tate’s 24-116-1 line from Week 1 should tell you that ANYONE that gets the majority of carries on the Texans is fantasy relevant.  In just the last three years, we’ve seen Steve Slaton, Ryan Moats, Derrick Ward, Arian Foster, and Tate all have big days in this scheme.

TRIUMPH: Michael Turner not only caught 3 passes for 40 yards (he caught 23 passes total in his first three years in Atlanta), but he had a solid fantasy day without scoring a touchdown.

TRAGEDY: The Steelers and Falcons combined for 1 offensive touchdown.

TREND: The Ravens and Bears, who played the above teams, are pretty good defenses and should give you pause if considering between two players to start.

TRIUMPH: Jamaal Charles’ 10 carries more than doubled the amount of any other Chief.

TRAGEDY: Jamaal Charles had 10 carries.

TREND: Despite being 7^th in the league in receiving yards last year, Dwayne Bowe had 4 games where he had fewer receiving yards than his 17 in Week 1 this year.  Business.  As.  Usual.

Weak One…I mean…Week One: What A Beat One

Eagles over Rams (31 – 13): So where’s the run defense? No seriously, Birds, where’s the run defense? Which is basically the same problem I had whenever I asked the neighborhood kids if they wanted to go in the woods and lick glue with me: I never had any further incentives to make them stay. But the Eagles D did get the incentive… Asomugha, Rodger-Cromartie, Jenkins etc. One wonders whether newly added Castillo is gonna run the Defense as wiry and whimsically as Reid does his offense. Or one doesn’t, but instead takes to pondering the time it would take to create a perfect circle with a group of meandering elephants. Which, when it comes to play-starts, can be attributed to the Eagles offensive line... time management, wasn’t that a problem of last season, too? Can’t blame a rookie center for everything. As per usual, the Eagles O won the game. Which is to be expected from the only team to have TWO top 10 fantasy picks this year. Although, like I’ve said before, I think Vick is gonna choke as the season goes on like a collapsing esophagus in a canary that’s in a clogged coal mine. I will also say that I’m not hating on Bradford as much as the next guy: (Unless the next guy is me, which doesn’t make sense, but if it did, I’d not only ask him for dating advice but also how this scenario complicates Descartes, “I think therefore I am” idiom.) The Rams’ offense of line was terrible, their receiver hands were terrible, and I think the Eagles’ passing D, while they do not make up for their lack of on-legs D, is most definitely benefited from those aforementioned incentive additions. So let off on Bradford…. a little bit, like your gas pedal while driving through residential neighborhoods filled with Cowboys fans.

Jets over Cowboys (27-24): Speaking of the Cowboys, they lost.

Bears over Falcons (30-12): Let’s not get too excited. Cutler still has the ability to shoot himself in the foot and have the hole appear in someone else’s foot. Also, Forte fantasy owners… just look at his stats last year. What’s really changed since?

Redskins over Giants (28-14): Okay, I wasn’t expecting this. Grossman, where’s the INTs? Eli, where’s the… oh wait, Eli, if Dakota Fanning played fantasy football, I think it’d be pretty sweet if her team name was Dakota Manning. But that’s just a dream; like Bradshaw being a reliable fantasy starting back while Brandon Jacob keeps taking carries like a train threatened to retire that won’t let off its track.


San Francisco over Seahawks (33-17): Gore, 59 yards in 22 carries? Your average yards per carry is around point sux.

Jaguars over Titans (16-14): It was amazing to watch Chris Johnson stand as idle as a fire-eater during a burn ban when he wasn’t given the ball. Honestly… do something.

Texans over Colts (34-7): What game better follows the word, “sux?” The Colts offense proved the prediction true, that without Manning, they are as useless as a bomb shelter during the Cold War. Sorry, Arian Foster owners… but to Arian Foster’s owners’ haters, Tate looked pretty notable & performance-y…. with 116 yds and 1 td on 24 carries that’s less shabby than shabby can sometimes be. To think about: how’s this impact Foster? I’mma say it does, like bad moonlight during a nocturnal food fight...., I think, I think, it might.

Other notable things: Ben Affleck has now pulled another Gigli by doing Madden commercials with his awfully propped Boston accent. Come on, man, didn’t you write and star in an Academy Award winning film? Man, even your lesser-known brother takes on better jobs to pay the bills. Also worth noting is that John Fahey is turning in his grave knowing that his song is being used in a… ehem… Dodge commercial. Really…? Another point for the let’s-expose-a-legend-through-another- philistine-conglomerate’s-cliche-of-a-commercial committee.

Team of the week: Baltimore Ravens. 7 turnovers on a Super Bowl contender? yes, Team of the Week, please.

Player of the week: Ted Ginn. Um, ‘cause one phrase, “BACK TO BACK.” And because those plays will compromise future views of laughing babies all around youtube.

Jon-Michael

2011 NFL Season Predictions. Write 'em down, son.

Since there’s just over a week until the start of the 2011 NFL season and I’m moving back into college tomorrow and will have less time to write such things, I’m going to make my season projections now instead of later.  Yes, yes, there is still a full slate of preseason games tonight that I’m not taking into account.  Here’s my counterargument: the only players who are likely to be on the first team this season that are playing in these games are not in very good shape (see the Washington Redskins’ quarterbacks). 

Therefore, I will proceed with my season predictions for the 2011 season, one division at a time, making sure to adhere to the partial predictions I made earlier in a post.  OK, I lied; I just couldn’t come up with a good enough rationale to bump 5 teams from the playoffs, so my claim is that THE STREAK STOPS IN 2011.  That’s right, I said it. 

I would insert a report on how my predictions fared last year, except that I didn’t have this blog last year at this time. 

Oh.

AFC EAST

Patriots              12-4 (-2 wins)

Jets                    11-5 (even)

Dolphins            7-9 (even)

Bills                   3-13 (-1 win)

Starting at the bottom, I don’t think that the mini-breakouts of Bills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (Ivy League shoutout) and WR Stevie Johnson will continue, especially with the loss of WR Lee Evans as a player defenses need to account for.  The Dolphins added some youth and talent at running back and had a good defense last year, but they didn’t pull the trigger on the trade for Kyle Orton that would have made them improve in my eyes.  Yes, the Jets are good, but I haven’t seen enough from Mark Sanchez to make me think they can overtake the Patriots.  I think that the Pats’ loss to the Jets in the AFC playoffs and their beatdown against the Lions in their previous preseason game could really motivate them, but I don’t see Tom Brady improving on a 36 TD / 4 INT year, and they should regress slightly.

AFC NORTH

Steelers            12-4 (even)

Ravens             11-5 (-1 win)

Browns            6-10 (+1 win)

Bengals            3-13 (-1 win)

OK, so the Bengals went 4-12 last year and lost their top two receivers, a top-flight cornerback, and their franchise quarterback.  Now tell me they’re going to improve.  Come on, don’t be shy, speak up!  Everyone likes Colt McCoy’s improvement over the past year, but a less-than-inspiring group of skill players around him and the loss of their defensive coordinator (Rob Ryan) and a starting cornerback (Eric Wright) should lower their ceiling for this season.  I predicted that the Ravens would miss the playoffs a few weeks ago, but I couldn’t pick a team to beat them for the Wild Card spot, so I’m wimping out a little bit.  As the class of the AFC, the Steelers have an unbelievable amount of speed and talent at wide receiver and a quarterback that can chuck it (who, by the way, missed 4 games last year), and sometimes it’s just that simple.  Oh, and they have that defense thing.

AFC SOUTH

Texans               10-6 (+4 wins)

Colts                   9-7 (-1 win)

Jaguars               5-11 (-3 wins)

Titans                 5-11 (-1 win)

While the Titans did just sign Chris Johnson to end his holdout, their questionable quarterback situation and uninspiring defense put them in the cellar in this division.  Speaking of questionable quarterbacks and uninspiring defenses, the Jaguars have both, but they were 8-8 last year with a largely similar team, so I will give them the credit they deserve and at least put them third in the division.  I called the Colts missing the playoffs, and Peyton Manning’s neck situation makes me feel much better about it.  I still think that Manning plays enough games and well enough to make a run at a playoff spot but miss out.  Lastly, the Texans added some good pieces to their defense that was awful against the pass last year, and still have my boys Andre Johnson, Matt Schaub, Owen Daniels, and that Foster fellow.

AFC WEST

Chargers           11-5 (+2 wins)

Chiefs               7-9 (-3 wins)

Raiders             7-9 (-1 win)

Broncos            5-11 (+1 win)

The Broncos had an exceptional season from Kyle Orton and Brandon Lloyd and a similarly poor season from their defense last year, and I think that both of those situations fall back into balance a little more this year.  However, there is still a lot of work to be done.  I think the Raiders still have perfectly average quarterback play and a good enough defense and running game to compete, but the injuries and inconsistency at wide receiver, as well as their failure to repeat a 6-0 division record from last year, will hurt them.  The Chiefs are, in my opinion, the most likely team to miss the playoffs after making it last year, mostly because they had unbelievable years from Matt Cassel and Dwayne Bowe, and we saw in the playoffs what happened when that team played a good defense (they played the whole NFC West last year, keep in mind).  While the Chargers didn’t have as good of a team as their #1 Offense / #1 Defense distinction would indicate (their special teams were awful, causing short drives for the opponent and long ones for them), they have a lot of talent and a great passing game that should help push them to victory over their division rivals.

NFC EAST

Eagles                 11-5 (+1 win)

Cowboys            11-5 (+5 wins)

Giants                 9-7 (-1 win)

Redskins             4-12 (-2 wins)

The Redskins get to choose between Rex Grossman and John Beck as their quarterback.  Get psyched, Washington.  Better hope you do worse than I predict and you get the first pick of the draft.  The Giants have a lot of injuries and losses defensively, but they also suffer from Elimanningsucksitis.  Tough to beat that ailment.  The Cowboys have a bevy of talent on offense and a new defensive coordinator to kick them into shape after they basically quit last year, and should greatly improve (and make the playoffs, per my prediction).  And whatever you think of the whole Eagles “Dream Team” thing, you have to agree they have better personnel than last year, and face the NFC West this year.

NFC NORTH

Packers            12-4 (+2 wins)

Bears                8-8 (-3 wins)

Lions                8-8 (+2 wins)

Vikings            7-9 (+1 win)

This division, in my opinion, is clearly the best in the league this year, pending a surprisingly good year from the Redskins.  I’m of the opinion that Donovan McNabb will undergo a mini-revival with Adrian Peterson lining up behind him, and I think they will be competitive.  Everyone seems to be on the Lions’ bandwagon, but I want to see Matthew Stafford make it through a season first, and would feel better about them if key rookies Nick Fairley and Mikel Leshoure weren’t out for the year.  The Bears surprised many by winning 11 games last year; they won’t surprise anyone by dropping back to earth.  Their offensive line is terrible.  And last but not least, my pick for the Super Bowl Champions, the Packers.  They get Ryan Grant and Jermichael Finley back on offense, and had one of the best defenses in the league last year.  I think Aaron Rodgers is in for a monster year – like 4500 yards and 40 touchdowns.

NFC SOUTH

Falcons             12-4 (-1 win)

Saints                11-5 (even)

Buccaneers       10-6 (even)

Panthers            3-13 (+1 win)

The Panthers spent a lot of money in free agency, but they spent most of it resigning their own players.  Didn’t they just lose 14 games?  Shouldn’t the players be responsible for some of that?  I think the Bucs are an up-and-coming team, but Josh Freeman’s TD/INT ratio was too good to be true as far as I’m concerned, so his progression as a quarterback will probably coincide with regression with regards to his luck or the play of successful rookies Mike Williams and LeGarrette Blount.  I considered making the Saints miss the playoffs, but I think that Drew Brees made an inordinate amount of mistakes that cost them games last year, and the addition of Mark Ingram should help keep their balance offensively.  Lastly, I think that the Falcons are definitely the second-best team in the NFC and will look excellent offensively, but I think that there has been a lot of improvement in the NFC that will keep their record down.

NFC WEST

Rams                  8-8 (+1 win)

Cardinals            8-8 (+3 wins)

49ers                  6-10 (even)

Seahawks           4-12 (-3 wins)

The Seahawks are my last pick to miss the playoffs, and they do it in dramatic fashion.  They signed Tarvaris Jackson, Sidney Rice, and Zach Miller, but that first guy makes the second two guys a bit less valuable.  Not to mention that the rest of the division appears to have gotten better.  Not included in that improvement are the 49ers, who have the same inconsistent quarterback and not much added.  The Cardinals made the big quarterback splash by trading for Kevin Kolb, and whatever you think of Kolb, he’s way better than what they had at quarterback last year (John Skelton?  Who?).  Lastly, the coronation of Sam Bradford continues, as he takes a ho-hum group of receivers to just enough wins to win a very winnable division.

As a recap, here are my playoff teams:

NFC

1. Green Bay Packers

2. Atlanta Falcons

3. Philadelphia Eagles

4. St. Louis Rams

5. Dallas Cowboys

6. New Orleans Saints

AFC

1. Pittsburgh Steelers

2. New England Patriots

3. San Diego Chargers

4. Houston Texans

5. New York Jets

6. Baltimore Ravens

Frameshmania Year 4 Draft Review

Just an hour ago, the draft for the fourth season of the Frameshmania fantasy football league was held.  As the resident fantasy-obsessed member of the league (and the only person in it with a sports-based blog), I figured it was appropriate to do a little recap and analysis of the 16-round affair.  I’ll go round by round and point out what I think were the best picks and worst picks of each, and maybe throwing in a little extra if I deem it appropriate.  I’ll only go in-depth for the first eight rounds, though, since it gets sort of crazy in the later rounds, and I will then look at the best and worst picks team-by-team in the final 8 rounds.  At the end, since it’s my blog, I’ll display my team as a whole to show everyone how transcendent my drafting talent is.

I should note that the draft order is entirely random, with the apparent exception of the fact that Matt Vogel has gotten the first overall pick each of the last three years.  Here is a guide to the team names:

J - E - T - S JETS JETS JETS -- Matt Vogel (the champ's friend)

Salt Lake City Big Tymers -- Alex Vigderman (the champ)

Grenade Whistle -- Jesse Cooperman (the champ's cousin)

Hometown Mamas -- Laurie Dameshek (the champ's mother)

The McGibblets -- Bill Madway (the champ's step-brother's friend's father)

Gym Tan Laundry -- Jon-Michael Frank (the champ's step-brother)

Sabotage the League -- Philip Frank (the champ's step-father)

DelCo's Side-Arm Stud -- Kyle Reynolds (the champ's step-brother's friend -- a different friend)

Round: 1

(1) J - E - T - S JETS JETS JETS - Arian Foster RB

(2) Salt Lake City Big Tymers - Adrian Peterson RB

(3) Grenade Whistle - Michael Vick QB

(4) Hometown Mamas - Jamaal Charles RB

(5) The McGibblets - Ray Rice RB

(6) Gym Tan  Laundry  - Chris Johnson RB

(7) Sabotage The League - LeSean McCoy RB

(8) DelCo's Side-Arm Stud - Maurice Jones-Drew RB

BEST: I think that Ray Rice at 5 is a very safe and possibly productive pick by Bill.  I would have taken him at 2 if Peterson was not available, as he has a defined 3-down role on a very good team.  Also, there have been a lot of reports about Rice getting more work around the goal line, meaning his touchdown total should see a spike.

WORST: Not that I can really quibble with a guy who scored 81 more points than the guy I took at Pick 2, but Arian Foster going 1^st overall is a bit shaky for me.  He’s only done it one year, his backup (Ben Tate) is actually healthy and looking good in the preseason, and he has had hamstring issues the last few weeks.

Overall, I’m glad that there weren’t any dramatic surprises in the first round to really shake up the draft, as have happened in past years.  The Michael Vick Experience apparently intrigued Philly enthusiast Jesse (he also drafted DeSean Jackson and the Eagles’ defense), and with the possibility that he could set the world on fire again, I can’t argue with him that early.

Round: 2

(9) DelCo's Side-Arm Stud - Rashard Mendenhall RB

(10) Sabotage The League - Andre Johnson WR

(11) Gym Tan  Laundry  - Frank Gore RB

(12) The McGibblets - Aaron Rodgers QB

(13) Hometown Mamas - Roddy White WR

(14) Grenade Whistle - Michael Turner RB

(15) Salt Lake City Big Tymers - Calvin Johnson WR

(16) J - E - T - S JETS JETS JETS - Drew Brees QB

BEST: Aaron Rodgers has been a very strong fantasy quarterback the last two years, and with Vick off the board getting him in the middle of the second round is a solid value, considering Bill could have taken him at 5 as well.

WORST: To be honest, I’m pretty satisfied with the picks for the second round.  Again, nobody really shook things up with a strange pick, so I have no gripes.  Maybe I’ll double up in the next round….

Round: 3

(17) J - E - T - S JETS JETS JETS - Greg Jennings WR

(18) Salt Lake City Big Tymers - Darren McFadden RB

(19) Grenade Whistle - Steven Jackson RB

(20) Hometown Mamas - Tom Brady QB

(21) The McGibblets - Hakeem Nicks WR

(22) Gym Tan  Laundry  - Larry Fitzgerald WR

(23) Sabotage The League - Ahmad Bradshaw RB

(24) DelCo's Side-Arm Stud - Philip Rivers QB

BEST: I liked Jon-Michael getting Larry Fitzgerald as the fifth receiver off the board.  If this preseason is any indication, he’s going to make a lot of big plays with Kool Kevin Kolb as his quarterback.  I probably would have taken him ahead of Hakeem Nicks and certainly ahead of Greg Jennings.  More on that below.

WORST: I’m going to double up here since I skipped last round’s.  I am very down on Matt’s pick of Greg Jennings, for this reason: in the four games last year that both Jennings and TE Jermichael Finley played, Jennings averaged 8 fantasy points.  Jennings made his hay last year in the other 12 games of the season, averaging 13.4 fantasy points.  Finley is healthy again.  I also was not a big fan of Phil’s pick of Ahmad Bradshaw, mostly because Bradshaw is an injury risk (he played through multiple injuries last year, and I’m not sure he can do it again) and I liked Matt Forte more at that spot because of his more expansive role on his team and lack of health issues.

Round: 4

(25) DelCo's Side-Arm Stud - Matt Forte RB

(26) Sabotage The League - Antonio Gates TE

(27) Gym Tan  Laundry  - Vincent Jackson WR

(28) The McGibblets - Mike Wallace WR

(29) Hometown Mamas - Peyton Hillis RB

(30) Grenade Whistle - DeSean Jackson WR

(31) Salt Lake City Big Tymers - Dez Bryant WR

(32) J - E - T - S JETS JETS JETS - Miles Austin WR

BEST: None that I really loved here, but I definitely am a fan of Mike Wallace as the 8^th receiver off the board for Bill.  He tied for 5^th among receivers last year with Ben Roethlisberger missing four games, and the fact that he’s been working on his route running bodes well for his advancement this year.  I think he had as much number-one-receiver upside of anyone left at that point.

WORST: Yes, Antonio Gates is a beast.  But he’s battled a lot of injuries the last couple years, and should be hurt a little bit by the fact that Vincent Jackson isn’t suspended this year and should take some catches away from Gates.  More than that, though, is that top-10 receivers like said Jackson and Mike Wallace were still on the board, and Phil ended up on the wrong side of a wide receiver run after his pick (8 of the 12 picks until his 5^th pick were receivers).

Round: 5

(33) J - E - T - S JETS JETS JETS - Reggie Wayne WR

(34) Salt Lake City Big Tymers - Tony Romo QB

(35) Grenade Whistle - Dwayne Bowe WR

(36) Hometown Mamas - Jeremy Maclin WR

(37) The McGibblets - DeAngelo Williams RB

(38) Gym Tan  Laundry  - LeGarrette Blount RB

(39) Sabotage The League - Peyton Manning QB

(40) DelCo's Side-Arm Stud - Dallas Clark TE

BEST: With no reliable top running backs left on the board, Jon-Michael’s pick of Blount as the 17^th running back off makes me very jealous of his third RB slot.  I certainly would prefer him to injury-risk/committee-member DeAngelo Williams, and probably more than Peyton Hillis, who went in the previous round.

WORST: I’m not sure which I dislike more of Bowe or Maclin as the 13^th and 14^th receivers off the board, but I think that there are some real concerns here.  Bowe had a ridiculously productive 7-week span last year, but was largely mediocre for the other 9 weeks.  Maclin is just now recovering from an illness that caused him to lose weight and practice time in the offseason and may take some time to get into shape.  They could both end up being fine, but they’re risky at that spot in my opinion.

Round: 6

(41) DelCo's Side-Arm Stud - Marques Colston WR

(42) Sabotage The League - Knowshon Moreno RB

(43) Gym Tan  Laundry  - Matt Schaub QB

(44) The McGibblets - Jermichael Finley TE

(45) Hometown Mamas - Mike Williams WR

(46) Grenade Whistle - Jason Witten TE

(47) Salt Lake City Big Tymers - Felix Jones RB

(48) J - E - T - S JETS JETS JETS - Beanie Wells RB

BEST: Mike Williams (of Tampa Bay, in case you weren’t sure) was the 12^th best receiver last year as a rookie with a second-year quarterback.  I don’t see any reason why he can’t repeat that, and getting him as the 16^th receiver makes me feel better about Laurie’s questionable pick of Maclin in the previous round.

WORST: I think I’m going to take another opportunity to build up some bad-pick credit for later rounds, as there was a good bit of uncertainty at running-back that prevents me from saying that Moreno, Jones, or Wells are good or bad picks.

Round: 7

(49) J - E - T - S JETS JETS JETS - Jahvid Best RB

(50) Salt Lake City Big Tymers - Brandon Lloyd WR

(51) Grenade Whistle - Percy Harvin WR

(52) Hometown Mamas - BenJarvus Green-Ellis RB

(53) The McGibblets - Steelers D/ST D/ST

(54) Gym Tan  Laundry  - Kenny Britt WR

(55) Sabotage The League - Steve Johnson WR

(56) DelCo's Side-Arm Stud - Ryan Mathews RB

BEST: Nothing really stands out here, but I think that the upside of Kenny Britt is certainly high enough to merit commendation.  He had the one huge 200-yard game against the Eagles, but also had some very nice games at the end of the year to show that he had some consistency in him as well. 

WORST: It’s gotta be the Steelers’ defense.  Most fantasy analysts preach not taking a defense until at least the 10^th round of 10-team drafts, and that’s about 40 picks later than where Bill took the Steel Curtain.  I agree with the Steelers going first among defenses, but they really should have gone several rounds later with there still being top-20 receivers available that he could have put in his RB/WR slot.

Round: 8

(57) DelCo's Side-Arm Stud - Brandon Marshall WR

(58) Sabotage The League - Daniel Thomas RB

(59) Gym Tan  Laundry  - Marcedes Lewis TE

(60) The McGibblets - Santonio Holmes WR

(61) Hometown Mamas - Anquan Boldin WR

(62) Grenade Whistle - Josh Freeman QB

(63) Salt Lake City Big Tymers - Mario Manningham WR

(64) J - E - T - S JETS JETS JETS - Vernon Davis TE

BEST: I’m torn between Marshall, Holmes, and Boldin, as all have the ability and opportunity to easily have top-15 seasons and have the track record that some receivers taken above them (Lloyd, Harvin, Britt, Steve Johnson) don’t have.  I think that Marshall, despite being taken first among them, has the best shot at a big year because of his ridiculous size/speed combination and the fact that there’s really not much else in Miami.

WORST: Jon-Michael reached 34 picks (according to ESPN ranks) for his tight end Marcedes Lewis, the 4^th off the board at his position.  In a down year for tight ends, he finished 4^th last year due to his 10 touchdown receptions.  However, touchdowns are incredibly hard to get consistently as a pass-catcher, and Lewis does not have the history of strong seasons that the next two tight ends drafted do (Vernon Davis, Owen Daniels).

THE REST OF THE DRAFT

MATT’S PICKS:

BEST: (96) Julio Jones WR – yes, he’s a rookie receiver who is hurt by not having as much preparation time due to the lockout.  However, he’s a physical freak on a team that was the top seed in the NFC without him and wants to throw more this year.  A very high upside pick that I love as a 4^th receiver.

WORST: (80) Matt Ryan QB – when you draft Drew Brees, it’s sort of assumed that he’s starting every week.  Why draft a borderline top-10 quarterback to play one game that is 10 weeks in the future?  You’re forgoing drafting a running back or receiver with upside that could end up giving you a lot more value.

ALEX’S PICKS:

BEST: (82) Joseph Addai RB – a starting running back for a good offense with a history of scoring a good amount of touchdowns in the 11^th round?  Sign me up.

WORST: (111) Ben Tate RB – why draft the backup to Arian Foster when you don’t have Arian Foster?  Not sure.

JESSE’S PICKS:

BEST: (110) Mike Thomas WR – he was 31^st among receivers last year, and that was with Mike Sims-Walker as the nominal top receiver.  I figure he’s got top-20 upside without Sims-Walker there, and you’re getting him at a very cheap price.

WORST: (67) Mark Ingram RB – a rookie running back on a team that likes to spread its rushing attempts around and has two other guys (Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles) to go to doesn’t stack up to known 15+ touch guys like Fred Jackson, Marshawn Lynch, Joseph Addai, and Shonn Greene.

LAURIE’S PICKS:

BEST: (116) Jerome Harrison RB – with Lions starter Jahvid Best already concussed and an injury waiting to happen, Harrison could get a lot of reps as a starter on a team that should have an explosive offense.  He could have a couple very good weeks like he did two years ago for the Browns.

WORST: (100) Ravens D/ST – I already talked about taking defenses high, and while this wasn’t that high, taking the Ravens fourth among defenses when some of their key pieces are getting older doesn’t seem that great to me.  Granted, it was the 13^th round, so I’m not so bothered by it.

BILL’S PICKS:

BEST: (124) Reggie Bush RB – he hasn’t performed to his expectations out of college, but he has been put on the top of the Dolphins’ depth chart and should put up decent total yards from week to week.  Considering that the guy behind him on the roster (Daniel Thomas) was taken 66 picks earlier, I call Bush a steal.  Finally.

WORST: (76) CJ Spiller RB – I understand his upside as a quick multidimensional talent, but he shouldn’t be drafted ahead of the guy ahead of him on the depth chart or starting running backs like Marshawn Lynch and Joseph Addai.

JON-MICHAEL’S PICKS:

BEST: (75) Santana Moss WR – a top-20 receiver last year, Moss is the top target on a Redskins team that should be throwing a lot, especially with the teams they’re competing with in the NFC East.  A great value as a fourth wide receiver.

WORST: (102) LaDainian Tomlinson RB – I really don’t dislike this pick much, but considering that he didn’t rush for more than 50 yards after Week 10 or score double-digit fantasy points after Week 11, I’d rather take a guy whose career arc is moving up at that position.

PHIL’S PICKS:

BEST: (71) Tim Hightower RB and (87) Sidney Rice WR – both of these guys figure to be involved prominently in their offenses, and while neither the Redskins nor the Seahawks should light up the scoreboard, they certainly have top-15 upside at their positions that is not outlandish to attain.

WORST: (122) Brian Westbrook RB – I know he took him because he always takes him, but Phil probably could have taken a player that’s on a team.  Just saying.

KYLE’S PICKS:

BEST: (72) Shonn Greene RB – he was often drafted in the top 20 overall last year, and I bet his role is expanded this year with LT aging.  I think he could have a year that he was thought to be prepared for last year, but at a much cheaper draft price.

WORST: (88) Eli Manning QB – Again, with Philip Rivers as your starter it seems silly to roster another quarterback when there are still useful commodities on the board at other positions.

And finally,

THE SALT LAKE CITY BIG TYMERS

QB Tony Romo

RB Adrian Peterson

RB Darren McFadden

RB/WR Felix Jones

WR Calvin Johnson

WR Dez Bryant

TE Owen Daniels

D/ST Lions

K Mason Crosby

WR3 Brandon Lloyd

WR4 Mario Manningham

RB4 James Starks

RB5 Joseph Addai

RB6 Michael Bush

WR5 Plaxico Burress

RB7 Ben Tate

While the fact that I rostered 3 Cowboys is a concern, I think their offense is in for a big year and am not bothered by it at all.  I am also concerned that my starting wide receivers, though they have tremendous upside, have a great deal of injury risk for both themselves and their quarterbacks (at least in Johnson’s case).  My backup running backs (Starks, Bush, and Tate) are on my team just in case something bad happens to the other guy, especially in Bush’s case as I own McFadden.  I think I built a team with massive upside but a great deal of risk, and I feel that I could burn out quickly or show myself to be a dominant team, like last year.  Despite the dominance that my team showed last year (9 players ranked in the top 46 overall this year), I only drafted one player from that championship roster this year, and that reflects my desire for variety from year to year.  That being said, I think my team has as much a shot as anyone to take down the trophy again.