Wednesday, September 14, 2011

Fantasy Football Week 1: Triumphs, Tragedies, and Trends

In case you didn’t notice based on the previous post, throughout the NFL season, Jon-Michael and I are both going to contribute pieces reflecting our opinions about both real and fantasy football.  Seeing as Jon-Michael claimed the cleats-on-turf version, I’m going to take a shot at the fingers-on-mouse kind.

Since you have undoubtedly read the title of this post, you probably have a bit of an idea what I’m going to write here – and an idea of how much alliteration contemplation it took to get to that point.  Given what we’ve seen in the first slate of games of the season, I’ll give my two cents on which events were anomalies (triumphs / tragedies) and should not be counted on in the future and which were worth watching for upcoming games (trends).

TRIUMPH: Chad Henne throws for 400 yards and two touchdowns and rushes for 60 and a touchdown.
TRAGEDY: BenJarvus Green-Ellis (drafted 21st among running backs) gets 7 carries versus Danny Woodhead’s 14 (drafted 45th among running backs)
TREND: The Patriots allowed the third most passing yards in the league last year, and it looks like that will be the case again.  As far as fantasy is concerned, I wouldn’t mind starting almost any QB against them.

TRIUMPH: Until Monday night, Cam Newton (in his first career NFL start) and Steve Smith (whose quarterback was in his first career NFL start) were the top two scorers in standard-scoring leagues.
TRAGEDY: DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, both drafted in the top 25 among running backs, combined for 19 rushes and 56 yards. 
TREND: The Cardinals pass defense is going to have a rough time this year, especially after trading away Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie.  Guess what that means?  A lot of passing from Kevin Kolb as well.

TRIUMPH: Cedric Benson rushed 25 times for 121 yards and a touchdown, but it was 24 for 82 with no touchdowns until his last rush, a 39-yard TD which saw him run through a hole Cedric the Entertainer could have run through.
TRAGEDY: Chris Johnson and LeGarrette Blount combined for 14 rushes and 39 yards.  The Titans got dominated in time-of-possession and had an 80-yard passing touchdown to limit Johnson’s touches, and the Bucs got into passing mode after falling behind the Lions.
TREND: Ben Tate’s 24-116-1 line from Week 1 should tell you that ANYONE that gets the majority of carries on the Texans is fantasy relevant.  In just the last three years, we’ve seen Steve Slaton, Ryan Moats, Derrick Ward, Arian Foster, and Tate all have big days in this scheme.

TRIUMPH: Michael Turner not only caught 3 passes for 40 yards (he caught 23 passes total in his first three years in Atlanta), but he had a solid fantasy day without scoring a touchdown.
TRAGEDY: The Steelers and Falcons combined for 1 offensive touchdown.
TREND: The Ravens and Bears, who played the above teams, are pretty good defenses and should give you pause if considering between two players to start.

TRIUMPH: Jamaal Charles’ 10 carries more than doubled the amount of any other Chief.
TRAGEDY: Jamaal Charles had 10 carries.
TREND: Despite being 7th in the league in receiving yards last year, Dwayne Bowe had 4 games where he had fewer receiving yards than his 17 in Week 1 this year.  Business.  As.  Usual.

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