Thursday, August 27, 2015

Frameshmania '15 Draft Review!

Welcome back to the wonderful world of Frameshmania!  We have ourselves a nice long fantasy draft review, chock full of round-by-round recaps and team-by-team analysis.  I used an arbitrary 1-10 scoring system for each position and then arbitrarily scaled the value of each position, so you're going to really feel confident about the score I give each team.  In case you're wondering, I've been pretty passable at predicting how this league will pan out over the last couple years (last year's top three regular season finishers were picked 3rd, 2nd, and 7th, and 2013's were picked 3rd, 2nd, and 1st), so maybe this isn't such a useless exercise after all.

Anyway, onto the draft!

Round: 1
(1) J - E - T - S JETS JETS JETS - Le'Veon Bell RB 
(2) Hoosier Daddy - Eddie Lacy RB 
(3) Salt Lake City Big Tymers - Jamaal Charles RB 
(4) Sabotage The League - C.J. Anderson RB 
(5) DelCo's Side-Arm Stud - Adrian Peterson RB 
(6) Frank Bored - Marshawn Lynch RB 
(7) Hometown Mamas - Antonio Brown WR 
(8) I Don't Give an Andrew Luck - DeMarco Murray RB 

Round: 2
(9) I Don't Give an Andrew Luck - LeSean McCoy RB 
(10) Hometown Mamas - Jeremy Hill RB 
(11) Frank Bored - Matt Forte RB 
(12) DelCo's Side-Arm Stud - Calvin Johnson WR 
(13) Sabotage The League - Demaryius Thomas WR 
(14) Salt Lake City Big Tymers - Julio Jones WR 
(15) Hoosier Daddy - Dez Bryant WR 
(16) J - E - T - S JETS JETS JETS - Odell Beckham Jr. WR 

Matt was hemming and hawwing right up to the start of the draft, but eventually settled on Bell, citing the fact that everyone makes the playoffs, so having a player miss a guaranteed two weeks at the start of the season isn't so bad (those who wanted Bell to drop can thank Kyle for the inception of that idea).  He followed that up by taking OBJ, which is a fine pick considering that the elite receivers were flying off the board at that time (although I personally have him a little lower than some guys who have shown a larger body of work and don't have to depend on Eli Manning).  In fact, only Jon-Michael and Emily went RB/RB instead of some combination of RB and WR.  Phil provided the shocking pick of the first two rounds, taking CJ Anderson above at least two players that were definitely expected to be drafted higher.  He invoked his patented "butthead clause" in overlooking Peterson and Lynch, and didn't want to start his team off without a running back.  Time will tell if he looks smart or not, but it's the first time I feel like that policy has caused him to really shake up the draft.  I would also be remiss not to mention the incumbent/replacement combo that Emily put together of McCoy and Murray at the turn.

Round: 3
(17) J - E - T - S JETS JETS JETS - Aaron Rodgers QB 
(18) Hoosier Daddy - Andrew Luck QB 
(19) Salt Lake City Big Tymers - A.J. Green WR 
(20) Sabotage The League - Randall Cobb WR 
(21) DelCo's Side-Arm Stud - Alshon Jeffery WR 
(22) Frank Bored - Rob Gronkowski TE 
(23) Hometown Mamas - Alfred Morris RB 
(24) I Don't Give an Andrew Luck - T.Y. Hilton WR 

Round: 4
(25) I Don't Give an Andrew Luck - Peyton Manning QB 
(26) Hometown Mamas - Mike Evans WR 
(27) Frank Bored - Russell Wilson QB 
(28) DelCo's Side-Arm Stud - Lamar Miller RB 
(29) Sabotage The League - Jonathan Stewart RB 
(30) Salt Lake City Big Tymers - Mark Ingram RB 
(31) Hoosier Daddy - Carlos Hyde RB 
(32) J - E - T - S JETS JETS JETS - Brandin Cooks WR 

We had a little not-terribly-surprising run on QBs at the start of the third round, which is a fine way to go for the teams that went RB/WR in the first two.  We also saw all of the top-tier receivers disappear in this group, with Jon-Michael ending up the only player without a receiver at all from that crop, instead opting for the top QB/TE strategy. Emily might have jumped the gun slightly by taking Peyton at the top of the fourth round, but when you've got bunched up picks that is almost guaranteed to happen.  Laurie might have overdrafted Alfred Morris a little as well (considering she had another pick three picks later), but I don't think she would have ended up with a very different result in the end anyway.  Other than that, there's not much exciting here -- Phil did grab Cobb to really cement his Week 7 loss though.

Round: 5
(33) J - E - T - S JETS JETS JETS - Frank Gore RB 
(34) Hoosier Daddy - Jordan Matthews WR 
(35) Salt Lake City Big Tymers - Emmanuel Sanders WR 
(36) Sabotage The League - Melvin Gordon RB 
(37) DelCo's Side-Arm Stud - Justin Forsett RB 
(38) Frank Bored - DeAndre Hopkins WR 
(39) Hometown Mamas - Jimmy Graham TE 
(40) I Don't Give an Andrew Luck - Julian Edelman WR 

Round: 6
(41) I Don't Give an Andrew Luck - Todd Gurley RB 
(42) Hometown Mamas - Drew Brees QB 
(43) Frank Bored - Latavius Murray RB 
(44) DelCo's Side-Arm Stud - Keenan Allen WR 
(45) Sabotage The League - Andre Ellington RB 
(46) Salt Lake City Big Tymers - Joseph Randle RB 
(47) Hoosier Daddy - Amari Cooper WR 
(48) J - E - T - S JETS JETS JETS - Vincent Jackson WR 

This is the point in the draft where the players you're really confident in have disappeared, and where there's a little less chalk coming off the board.  Jesse messed up the plans of at least my mom and myself in taking Matthews early in the fifth, and Laurie responded by grabbing her own QB/TE combination in the former teammates Brees and Graham.  I really liked Kyle's picks in these rounds as upside plays, because there are plenty of doubts about both Forsett and Allen but both could very easily end up top-15 players at their positions.  Jon-Michael finally took his first receiver in Hopkins, and followed it up with a further solidification of his running backs with Murray.  Phil loaded up on running backs, getting some nice upside himself in Gordon and Ellington.  Matt's picks were probably the least intriguing because of the age of the players, but if Gore can have a Bradshaw-esque impact and Jameis Winston is any good, he could have some nice stability coming out of this round.

Round: 7
(49) J - E - T - S JETS JETS JETS - T.J. Yeldon RB 
(50) Hoosier Daddy - C.J. Spiller RB 
(51) Salt Lake City Big Tymers - Greg Olsen TE 
(52) Sabotage The League - Tom Brady QB 
(53) DelCo's Side-Arm Stud - Matt Ryan QB 
(54) Frank Bored - Andre Johnson WR 
(55) Hometown Mamas - Sammy Watkins WR 
(56) I Don't Give an Andrew Luck - Martellus Bennett TE 

Round: 8
(57) I Don't Give an Andrew Luck - Tony Romo QB 
(58) Hometown Mamas - Joique Bell RB 
(59) Frank Bored - Brandon Marshall WR 
(60) DelCo's Side-Arm Stud - Golden Tate WR 
(61) Sabotage The League - Travis Kelce TE 
(62) Salt Lake City Big Tymers - Ben Roethlisberger QB 
(63) Hoosier Daddy - Mike Wallace WR 
(64) J - E - T - S JETS JETS JETS - Davante Adams WR 

The most obviously interesting pick in this group was Phil's selection of Tom Brady ahead of Ryan, Romo, Roethlisberger, and Newton.  I just think that he absolutely could have waited on Brady, and barring some kind of F-you season like 2007, I just don't think the upside is there.  The selections of Brady and Ryan in the 7th left me as the only team without a quarterback, but once Emily backed Peyton up with Romo, I had to pull the trigger on Roethlisberger before people started freaking out about backup quarterbacks.  We also saw three tight ends go off the board, and I think Phil did the best in terms of value, considering most experts' positive outlook on Kelce.  As a result of the QB/TE runs, we only saw three running backs go off the board here, and they have some serious injury/workload/Jaguars questions.  I think Matt got a steal in Adams, who I might have taken a round and half earlier if it wouldn't have messed up my bye weeks.  Jon-Michael filled out his receiving corps with some old guys on new teams that should be just fine if not spectacular.

Round: 9
(65) J - E - T - S JETS JETS JETS - LeGarrette Blount RB 
(66) Hoosier Daddy - Ryan Mathews RB 
(67) Salt Lake City Big Tymers - Chris Ivory RB 
(68) Sabotage The League - Cam Newton QB 
(69) DelCo's Side-Arm Stud - Arian Foster RB 
(70) Frank Bored - Giovani Bernard RB 
(71) Hometown Mamas - Nelson Agholor WR 
(72) I Don't Give an Andrew Luck - Anquan Boldin WR 

Round: 10
(73) I Don't Give an Andrew Luck - Rashad Jennings RB 
(74) Hometown Mamas - Isaiah Crowell RB 
(75) Frank Bored - Torrey Smith WR 
(76) DelCo's Side-Arm Stud - Jason Witten TE 
(77) Sabotage The League - Doug Martin RB 
(78) Salt Lake City Big Tymers - DeSean Jackson WR 
(79) Hoosier Daddy - Martavis Bryant WR 
(80) J - E - T - S JETS JETS JETS - Allen Robinson WR 

The watershed pick in these rounds is clearly Arian Foster to Kyle, who is all about preparing for the playoff run, and can immediately throw him in the IR slot and pick up some depth.  We also finally got a resolution on how far Desean Jackson would fall (34 slots by the ESPN rankings), while some buzzy young receivers also started finding homes.  There were still some lead backs available, so I liked Phil's pick of Martin at the late end of that range.  I don't know if Jesse took Mathews a little bit too early, but it definitely hurts Emily not to have that tandem in case one of them gets hurt (which is a fairly common scenario).  I think she also missed an opportunity to get a little more razzle-dazzle out of her receivers by taking Boldin over some of the more boom-or-bust guys, but who knows who pans out.  Phil also found his early-season starter in Cam, who could have easily been a team's starter had the draft (or Kelvin Benjamin) fallen differently.

Round: 11
(81) J - E - T - S JETS JETS JETS - Jarvis Landry WR 
(82) Hoosier Daddy - Jeremy Maclin WR 
(83) Salt Lake City Big Tymers - Ameer Abdullah RB 
(84) Sabotage The League - Bishop Sankey RB 
(85) DelCo's Side-Arm Stud - Ryan Tannehill QB 
(86) Frank Bored - Seahawks D/ST D/ST 
(87) Hometown Mamas - Alfred Blue RB 
(88) I Don't Give an Andrew Luck - Steven Hauschka K 

Round: 12
(89) I Don't Give an Andrew Luck - Browns D/ST D/ST 
(90) Hometown Mamas - Teddy Bridgewater QB 
(91) Frank Bored - Tevin Coleman RB 
(92) DelCo's Side-Arm Stud - Julius Thomas TE 
(93) Sabotage The League - Larry Fitzgerald WR 
(94) Salt Lake City Big Tymers - Charles Johnson WR 
(95) Hoosier Daddy - Jordan Cameron TE 
(96) J - E - T - S JETS JETS JETS - Shane Vereen RB 

It's Defense and Kicker Time!  Jon-Michael took the plunge with the Seahawks, and then Emily followed that up with a kicker-defense tandem pick (selecting the Browns just because they play the Jets Week 1 -- sorry Matt).  Kyle took a backup tight end and a backup QB, and Laurie took a solid early-week option in Blue and what I view as an excellent backup QB in Bridgewater.  At this point there's not much to debate because you can mostly take who you want, so that's about it.  I will say that Jesse getting Maclin in the 11th round is probably going to work out awesomely.

Round: 13
(97) J - E - T - S JETS JETS JETS - Devonta Freeman RB 
(98) Hoosier Daddy - Roddy White WR 
(99) Salt Lake City Big Tymers - Texans D/ST D/ST 
(100) Sabotage The League - Rams D/ST D/ST 
(101) DelCo's Side-Arm Stud - Tre Mason RB 
(102) Frank Bored - Robert Griffin QB 
(103) Hometown Mamas - Eagles D/ST D/ST 
(104) I Don't Give an Andrew Luck - Victor Cruz WR 

Round: 14
(105) I Don't Give an Andrew Luck - Duke Johnson RB 
(106) Hometown Mamas - Michael Floyd WR 
(107) Frank Bored - Stephen Gostkowski K 
(108) DelCo's Side-Arm Stud - Sam Bradford QB 
(109) Sabotage The League - Brian Quick WR 
(110) Salt Lake City Big Tymers - Justin Tucker K 
(111) Hoosier Daddy - Bills D/ST D/ST 
(112) J - E - T - S JETS JETS JETS - Jets D/ST D/ST 

For the 13th and 14th round, this section had a lot of intrigue.  I violated my usual tenets by taking both a defense and a kicker, because I was confident that I would get the players I wanted in the last two rounds.  My hopes were dashed when Kyle took Sam Bradford as his third quarterback (after which I yelled "NOOOOOOO!" for about 12 seconds).  Laurie might have been a little aggressive in taking the Eagles' D that high, but I do think they'll be better fantasy-wise than in real life because of their special teams.  It's just that Jesse getting the Bills at the end of the 14th is a better value.  Some really interesting fliers come up in these rounds as well, with Emily taking Victor Cruz and Phil going with Brian Quick (he is the #1 receiver and flashed for a couple weeks last year).  Jon-Michael is going to cry for RGIIIna one more year, it appears.

Round: 15
(113) J - E - T - S JETS JETS JETS - Adam Vinatieri K 
(114) Hoosier Daddy - Matt Prater K 
(115) Salt Lake City Big Tymers - Matthew Stafford QB 
(116) Sabotage The League - Connor Barth K 
(117) DelCo's Side-Arm Stud - Cody Parkey K 
(118) Frank Bored - Pierre Garcon WR 
(119) Hometown Mamas - Delanie Walker TE 
(120) I Don't Give an Andrew Luck - Antonio Gates TE 

Round: 16
(121) I Don't Give an Andrew Luck - Eric Decker WR 
(122) Hometown Mamas - Dan Bailey K 
(123) Frank Bored - Danny Woodhead RB 
(124) DelCo's Side-Arm Stud - Dolphins D/ST D/ST 
(125) Sabotage The League - Jonas Gray RB 
(126) Salt Lake City Big Tymers - Knile Davis RB 
(127) Hoosier Daddy - Brandon LaFell WR 
(128) J - E - T - S JETS JETS JETS - Zach Ertz TE

Props to Matt for waiting until his last pick to take a tight end.  There's some serious potential value there.  We also saw some really potentially productive receivers go off the board in Garcon, Decker, and LaFell.  Emily got a nice stash in Gates, although I'm not sure if she will be able to place him in the IR slot if he's suspended.  I picked up my backup QB and handcuff RB, which is basically what I planned on doing.  I love Kyle's defense pick, because a team whose first six games are Redskins-Jaguars-Bills-Jets-Titans-Texans is a lock to be in the top 5 by the end of that stretch.

And now, for the team reviews!


I was the last team to take a quarterback, but considering I would have had Big Ben fifth among QBs I'm totally fine with that.  I balance that out with a studly trio of starting receivers and an average-at-worst tight end situation.  The running back group leaves something to be desired, but getting a handcuff to Charles and a few guys who are likely to have the lion's share of the workload should be OK to fill the second running back slot (after all, the flex will almost always be a receiver).

QB: 4
RB: 3
WR: 9
TE: 6
D/K: 8

Total: [(20*4) + (30*3) + (30*9) + (10*6) + (5*8)] / 95 = 5.68

I will say that the first thing Phil said after scanning the rosters post-draft was that he liked Emily's team.  I'm not sure how much I agree given some of the odd picks she made throughout the draft, but the final roster looks fine..  She's got some very intriguing running backs behind the horses in Murray and McCoy, but there are serious questions about how much those two will perform this year.  The receiver group is very deep and unlikely to flame out, but doesn't have the high-end studs that some other teams do.  Bennett is another one of those just-fine options at tight end that shouldn't be a problem to just slot in week-to-week, and having Gates as a fallback is intriguing.

QB: 8
RB: 8
WR: 3
TE: 5
D/K: 5

Total: [(20*8) + (30*8) + (30*3) + (10*5) + (5*5)] / 95 = 5.95

This roster is really intriguing, featuring four popular first-and-second-year sleepers in Hyde, Cooper, Matthews, and Bryant (and the latter celebrated by getting himself suspended).  The problem is that that construction brings with it a fair amount of risk, which may force him into some uncomfortable situations.  I  like Mathews as a bench option that could easily end up a viable flex play even without an injury to DeMarco, but unless that happens there is a serious lack of depth at RB.  Having Luck and therefore forgoing a backup QB should allow Jesse to work around some of those issues should they come up.

QB: 9
RB: 3
WR: 7
TE: 3
D/K: 8

Total: [(20*9) + (30*3) + (30*7) + (10*3) + (5*8)] / 95 = 5.79

Jon-Michael definitely has an older roster on average, but he is essentially reaping the benefits of other teams' fear of older players.  I think Lynch, Forte, and Marshall all represent really strong values (I am a little hesitant on Johnson), and I think Murray and Hopkins are fine if not spectacular as an infusion of youth.  I don't love a lot of the bench choices, but Coleman is a nice sleeper pick and Garcon was very undervalued.  And at the end of the day, the only starting position that is a worry at all is WR, but there's plenty of opportunity to maneuver around that.

QB: 7
RB: 8
WR: 3
TE: 9
D/K: 10

Total: [(20*7) + (30*8) + (30*3) + (10*9) + (5*10)] / 95 = 6.42

He tends to make a few picks that zig while others zag, and the selections of Calvin Johnson (above DT, Julio, and Dez), Sam Bradford (as a third quarterback), and Arian Foster (out for a bit), but I think it's going to work out great for him.  First of all, there are reports that Foster may not even miss a month, at which point that pick is a crazy value.  He's got virtually no chance of a bust at QB, and took Tate as a handcuff to Calvin (a fact that was lost on me during the draft).  I think that Forsett is a very viable third running back, but an even better fourth once Foster returns.

QB: 6
RB: 8
WR: 6
TE: 5
D/K: 6

Total: [(20*6) + (30*8) + (30*6) + (10*5) + (5*6)] / 95 = 6.53

She didn't mean to take Brees and Graham again, I swear.  Both players come off down years, but if they can deliver at close to their previous levels, this is a viable team.  She has solid depth if not peak talent at running back, while she will rely on some relatively unproven young receivers in Evans, Watkins, and Agholor.  I think she'll need those guys to blow up to really contend if Brees and Graham don't return to glory, but maybe a repeat of the Eagles' excellent special teams year could provide a boost.

QB: 7
RB: 3
WR: 5
TE: 7
D/K: 7

Total: [(20*7) + (30*3) + (30*5) + (10*7) + (5*7)] / 95 = 5.11

After all the worrying about what to do with the first pick, I'm not sure that Matt did a great job ensuring depth for the first couple weeks behind Bell.  I think he has an awesomely deep receiving corps that will likely offer him some serious trade options, and that helps the running backs merely by basically ensuring he doesn't need one at the flex.  Rodgers is going to be a stud regardless of Nelson's injury, but maybe that and taking a tight end as the last pick of the draft makes this team a little less than stellar.  Also, he picked the Jets defense.  Props.

QB: 9
RB: 3
WR: 7
TE: 3
D/K: 5

Total: [(20*9) + (30*3) + (30*7) + (10*3) + (5*5)] / 95 = 5.63

So first off, I'm not a fan of the Brady and Anderson picks.  We've been over that.  But the receivers are good (if top-heavy), the running backs are really deep (even if he could have done without Sankey and Gray), and the tight end is a possible star.  In order for this team to really contend, Cam needs to stay upright and run enough to cover the first 5 weeks, and the top two receivers need to stay healthy, which makes me nervous.  Oh, and taking a kicker that got cut probably isn't a strong strategy, but whatever.

QB: 4
RB: 7
WR: 6
TE: 6
D/K: 5

Total: [(20*4) + (30*7) + (30*6) + (10*6) + (5*5)] / 95 = 5.84

So, what do we end up with?

1) Kyle (6.53)
2) Jon-Michael (6.42)
3) Emily (5.95)
4) Phil (5.84)
5) Jesse (5.79)
6) Alex (5.68)
7) Matt (5.63)
8) Laurie (5.11)

Considering how close all of these arbitrary scores are, I'd say there's a fair amount of uncertainty to go around.  Why don't we just throw out all of these projections and just have Matt win the regular season and Laurie win the championship, hm?

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