Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Week 12's Turkeys and Tverskys

There is no mention of any social scientists in this post, unfortunately.

This is not the first time that I have written a blog post during an Eagles game, but it is certainly the least interested I've been in the outcome of the game.  The team is missing its "starting quarterback,"
 one of the top five running backs and the league, and hope.  Really, the latter is the biggest problem.  At least we're playing a Panthers team that's almost as disappointing.  What a drag for ESPN.

UPDATE: Brandon Lafell just scored a touchdown on a play where there was no defender within fifteen yards of him, then did Lesean McCoy's touchdown dance, and then Cam Newton gave the ball to a fan.  This Eagles team has absolutely no respect from its opposition.

UPDATE: Bryce Brown just broke a really impressive touchdown run that showed incredible spedd for a guy his size, and I would be more excited about it if we didn't already have a great back.  Great, an excess at one position and a mega-dearth at every other.


TRIUMPH: I started Tony Romo in the Frameshmania fantasy league this week and was rewarded for it (441 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT), but this was no impressive performance.  It took a ridiculous 62 attempts to get all those yards, he had under 60% completions for just the third time all season, and more than 1 interception for just the third time all season.  Interestingly enough, his terrible-first-half-turned-comeback-attempt looked almost exactly like the 'Bows 29-24 loss to the Giants, in which Romo went 36-for-62 for 437 yards, 1 TD, and 4 INT, but with a little better luck to boost his fantasy value.

TRAGEDY: The highly-drafted / highly-paid Cowboys secondary had produced a top-ten pass defense, allowing just 11 touchdowns in 10 games, until they were introduced to The Legend of RGIII.    They allowed about 80 yards over their season average (295-211) and four passing touchdowns.  That included two 50+ yard touchdowns in the second quarter to really blow the game open.  The good news for Dallas is that they get to match up next week against the aforementioned terrible Eagles.

TREND: Dez Bryant just may have this head-on-straight thing figured out.  In his last 8 games, he has six with at least 87 yards (four with 100+), four with at least 8 receptions, and six touchdowns.  He had one game with 8+ receptions and one with 87+ yards last season, and had one hundred-yard game in his career prior to this run.  Not only that, but his consecutive 8+ rec, 145+ yds, 1+ TD games coincide with Miles Austin's injury-of-the-week, and he could be in line for a great run.

TRAIL MIX: Pierre Garcon has two touchdown receptions that have totaled 147 yards.  Other than that, he has 14 receptions for 104 yards and no touchdowns in five games.  He has a $50 million contract.


TRIUMPH:  So, I guess Andre Johnson isn't totally defunct?  After totaling 17 receptions for 239 yards in games 2-6 of the season, he has 44 receptions for 700 yards in games 7-11!  That's going from a five-games-extrapolated-into-a-season pace of about 55 receptions for 750 yards to a FGEIASP of almost 140 receptions for 2250 yards.  And yet, he still has just three touchdowns all season.

TRAGEDY:  I'll admit, I definitely saw this shootout coming, what with the top offenses facing banged up defenses on a short week thing, but the Texans have to really be concerned at this point.  Yes, cornerback Johnathan Joseph missed an opportunity to cover Calvin Johnson, who had 140 yards and a touchdown.  But to go to overtime in consecutive games against sub-.500 teams while allowing almost 1000 total yards and 68 points, after allowing 729 yards and 28 points in the three previous games combined, is terrible.  And a road game in New England looms in two weeks.

TREND:  I was commenting on this during the game, but there really has been zero WR2 production on the Texans to complement Johnson for years.  Kevin Walter has 400 yards this season, putting him on pace for about 600.  Here are the leading wide-receivers' yardage numbers in the last three years: 512, 621, 611.  And that first number was with Johnson sidelined for most of the season! 

TRAIL MIX: Go Texans!  I'm tired, get over it.


TRIUMPH: How about Julian Edelman getting the Jack-of-All-Trades award?  In his last two games, he has four touchdowns: two receiving, one punt return, and one fumble return.  Keep in mind that the only (reasonable) way to get that combination of scores is to play offense, return offense, and either return defense or just defense.  Incidentally, he did play cornerback a bit last year, but not to this kind of success.  Considering that he had three receptions for fifteen yards in the previous three games to these two, this is quite a little run he's on.   Maybe the Gronk injury is his opening to a display that can convince Pats fans and management that Welker isn't worth paying for next season.

TRAGEDY: Just the Jets in general, man.  You get a home game on Thanksgiving against a hated division rival.  You hold said rival, who had just scored 59 points the week before, scoreless through the first quarter -- so far so good.  Then you allow five touchdowns in the second?  And three of those in under a minute?  And one of them was this?  You know your team is overly publicized when it's a national story that a single fan is putting away his fireman's helmet -- you know your team is terrible when its "biggest fan" quits on a national stage. 

TREND: The Pats do the offense thing up real nice, despite being "only" 8-3.  In 11 games, they've scored 30 or more points eight times, 40 or more four times, and 50 or more twice.  In their entire record-breaking season in 2007, those numbers were 12, 4, and 2.  Look familiar?  For reference, in 32 games in the last two seasons, they had 23 30+ games, 5 40+ games, and 0 50+ games.  

TRAIL MIX: Mark Sanchez appears to have broken ESPN Total QBR.  His 26-for-36 for 301 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT stat line looks really good when you consider A) It's Mark Sanchez, and B) The Jets lost by 30.  He also had a 94.8 Passer Rating, 20 points above his career average.  And yet, his Total QBR was 22.9, which is just barely above Brandon Weeden's season average and Brady Quinn's Week 12 13-for-25, 126 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT.

I swear, the fact that I only reviewed the Thursday games is a total coincidence.  I had no idea I was doing it at the time.

No comments:

Post a Comment