Or the Super Bowl. Whatever.
As you probably all know, the culmination of the NFL season will occur this Sunday at 6:30 Eastern time in the new Cowboys stadium (of giant 60-yard scoreboard fame) between the Green Bay Packers (13-6) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (14-4). People kind of care about this game. So, as any good sports fan should do, I will do my best to handicap the game and predict a score and winner. The best way I see to do this is to compare the teams' run and pass defense and offense as well as their special teams and team discipline (i.e. penalty and turnover frequency), and see who comes out on top in each circumstance.
Running the Ball
Green Bay: 100.4 yards per game (118 in playoffs)
Pittsburgh D: 62.8 yards per game (52.5 in playoffs)
Pittsburgh: 120.3 yards per game (118.5 in playoffs)
Green Bay D: 114.9 yards per game (69.7 in playoffs)
The Steelers clearly should have the edge running the ball in this game, with 1200-yard rusher Rashard Mendenhall toting the majority of the workload and the Packers' run defense being slightly more beatable. However, the late-season addition of rookie James Starks to the Green Bay backfield has at least given them some fresh legs, which has shown itself in their 20% improvement in rushing output during the playoffs. Although I like what I've seen from the Packers' run defense in their first three playoff games (shutting down two top-third rushing offenses), I can't rely on the young pup to get it done in a big game against the league's top-ranked rush defense.
Steelers win, 65-35
Passing the Ball
GB (Rodgers): 248.6 ypg (251 in playoffs)
PIT D: 214.1 ypg (179 in playoffs)
PIT (Roethlisberger): 248.3 ypg (156.5 in playoffs)
GB D: 194.2 ypg (237 in playoffs)
Don't be fooled by Roethlisberger's sad-looking numbers in the Steelers' two playoff games; the Ravens had a down year defensively but always play their division rivals tough, and the Jets had a top-10 pass defense. On the flip side, everybody's getting on the Rodgers bandwagon after strong performances against the Eagles and Falcons, but their pass defenses were both below-average. As far as receiving corps are concerned, they're pretty similar and deep, with the Packers' receiver depth being offset by its weakness at tight end and the Steelers' inexperience at receiver being offset by Heath Miller at TE and Mendenhall's receiving ability. Both quarterbacks have very good scrambling ability, so a big pass downfield on a broken play to Mike Wallace or Greg Jennings could make the game. In the end, though, the Packers' offense runs through Rodgers much more than the Steelers' runs through Roethlisberger, and the Pack's receivers are just more explosive than Pittsburgh's.
Packers win, 60-40.
Special Teams
Really not much to go on here, as the teams combined for 1 kickoff or punt return touchdown this year. Basically, it comes down to me trusting Mason Crosby more than I trust Shaun Suisham, and we know how kickers can impact Super Bowls (see Vinatieri, Adam).
Packers win, 60-40.
Discipline
GB: 38.8 penalty ypg, +11 turnover margin
PIT: 56.7 penalty ypg, +14 turnover margin
The possibility of Pittsburgh center Maurkice Pouncey missing the game means that there may be some issues along the offensive line, causing some possible false start/holding issues and increasing the difference in penalty efficiency between the teams. Additionally, the gunslinger/never-go-down mentality of Roethlisberger could create some turnovers for the Packers.
Packers win, 60-40.
So here's a recap:
Run game-- Steelers, 65-35
Pass game-- Packers, 60-40
Special teams-- Packers, 60-40
Discipline-- Packers, 60-40
Oh, and we'll throw in a coaching/experience factor, which will obviously go to the Steelers since they were in the Super Bowl a couple years ago under Mike Tomlin. Let's throw some arbitrary math in too:
Final score = Run*0.3 + Pass*0.3 + Special*0.1 + Discipline*0.15 + Experience*0.15
Steelers = 65*0.3 + 40*0.3 + 40*0.1 + 40*0.15 + 65*0.15 = 51.25
Packers = 35*0.3 + 60*0.3 + 60*0.1 + 60*0.15 + 35*0.15 = 48.75
All right, so I have the Steelers winning by about 6%. I think we can assume a fairly average-scoring game despite the defensive quality (after all, these teams combined for 66 points the last time they met), so if I set the total score to about the current over-under (somewhere around 44.5), that means that I should be expecting a 24-21 Steelers final.
Despite all that, go Pack go! The Steelers just won. Come on, share the wealth.
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