Week 10's Tramplings and Trying-to-Forgets

Before we begin, I would just like to take a moment of silence in remembrance of the 2011 Eagles.

…

And that is the last you will hear of them today.  Besides, there were plenty of interesting games played yesterday that I can discuss that involved teams with playoff aspirations, including, the Denver Broncos?

BRONCOS 17, CHIEFS 10

TRIUMPH: Dexter McCluster had 1/3 of the Chiefs' receptions in this game and led them in receiving yards, while also being second on the team with 8 carries and 45 yards (for a total of 14 touches and 93 yards).  He did his best Jamaal Charles imitation, but I have to say that this game is probably the upper bound of his productivity.

TRAGEDY: The mercurial Dwayne Bowe had yet another of his trademark "Where in the World is Dwayne Bowe?" games, grabbing just two passes for 17 yards.  While he has had quite the breakout the last two years, he has still had 6 games (out of 25 since the start of last year) with a stat line of 2 / 17 or worse, including a zero-catch game against the Broncos last year.

TREND: The Broncos have been running a college-style option offense the last two weeks, similar to many college teams, which led to Tim Tebow throwing just EIGHT passes in this game, completing two (more on that below). The Broncos have run 76% of the time the last two weeks, which is perilously close to the prototypical triple-option offenses of the Navy Midshipmen (84% run) and Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (82% run).  Although their next opponent, the Jets, have been uncharacteristically average against the run this year, the fact that this offense is so one-dimensional should make next week's game a blowout.

TRAIL MIX: Tim Tebow’s statline in this game: 2-8, 69 yards, 9 rushes, 43 yards.  Just as a point of comparison: Dan Orlovsky (of being-totally-inept fame) and Tyler Palko (whom I had never heard of, and therefore you shouldn’t have) both had more completions, and they averaged just 4 minutes of game time.  Tebow played every snap.  And while it seems like I’m piling on Tebow, you can’t argue with the fact that the Broncos are 1 game out of the division lead, Tebow has a 7/1 TD/INT ratio this season, and despite the abysmal statistics, he still tied for the 8^th best fantasy performance among quarterbacks this week.

BEARS 37, LIONS 13

TRIUMPH: Former Hammer of God Marion Barber appears to have a very similar role with the Bears that he did with the Cowboys a couple of years ago, taking goal line duties and serving as the 4^th quarter run-out-the-clock guy.  The Bears were winning 34-6 with 10 minutes left in the 3^rd quarter, so Barber’s 13 carries to Matt Forte’s 18 shouldn’t bother fantasy owners any, especially given his 2.1 yards per carry and the fact that Forte ended up getting a goal line touchdown instead of Barber.

TRAGEDY: With the Lions drafting two consensus top-five talents on the defensive line in the last two years (Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley), you’d think they’d get more than 5 sacks in two games against a Bears offensive line that allowed 56 sacks (3.5 per game) last year.

TREND: In the Bears’ last two games, Earl Bennett has 11 catches for 176 yards and a touchdown, while the rest of the Bears have 16 catches, 155 yards, and a touchdown.  People tend to overemphasize the fact that Bennett and Cutler were teammates at Vanderbilt (they were teammates for one year), but you have to respect the increased role Bennett seems to have.

TRAIL MIX: Here’s an example of numbers lying: if I told you that Jay Cutler would go 9-for-19 with no touchdowns and Matt Forte would have under 70 total yards while Matthew Stafford threw for 329 yards, you’d probably say that Stafford had a great day and the Lions won.  Oh, did I forget to tell you that Stafford acquired those yards on 63 attempts?  Or that he threw 4 interceptions, two of which were returned for touchdowns?

COWBOYS 44, BILLS 7

TRIUMPH: Tony Romo was 18-19 for 237 yards and 3 touchdowns in the first half, with all three touchdowns coming before the 12:00 mark in the second quarter.  Not only that, but Romo attempted just 7 passes in the second half, and none in the fourth quarter.  He completed 88 percent of his passes after not having 80% completions in a game since 2007.

TRAGEDY: Seriously, how did the Cowboys have the best run defense in the league three weeks ago?  Fred Jackson had 114 yards on just 13 carries, which actually hurts the fact that the Cowboys have allowed 179 yards per game the last three weeks after allowing 70 yards per game in the six games prior.

TREND: Ryan Fitzpatrick’s NFL quarterback rating each month has declined from 103.5 to 92.4 to 48.9 from September to November, and this degradation runs parallel to the Bills team falling out of playoff contention.  This trend doesn’t come as a surprise, as Fitzpatrick’s quarterback rating declined monotonically from 92.4 to 71.7 from September to December last year.  It seems like Fitzpatrick doesn’t much like the cold, which doesn’t seem like a great trait for the quarterback of a team from Buffalo, NY.

TRAIL MIX: The Cowboys’ offense is bottom-five in the league in red zone touchdown percentage (under 40 percent).  Not only does that mean that this game could have been even more out of hand, but it also means that their kicker, Dan Bailey, is a fantasy stud.  Aside from the game in which the Eagles simply dominated the ‘Boys, Bailey has kicked at least two field goals in each of the last 8 games, with at least three in five of them.  He has more fantasy points than top-ten receivers AJ Green and Dwayne Bowe!

Seder Slate, Week 10

After what I will inappropriately call a one-week hiatus, the Seder Slate makes its triumphant return (I mean, could you really say something took a break when it barely even existed to begin with?).  If you’ve forgotten the rules (or didn’t know them to begin with – let’s be honest, my readership isn’t exactly legendary), take a look back at the first one.  Three games, all the important questions answered.  Unless you’re looking for a winner, then the Man Upstairs might be of more use.

What? Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals

Why? Because we all want to know if the Bengals “are who we thought they were”.  Though they are tied for the division lead in arguably the best division in the NFL, the Bungles’ 6 wins have come against teams who are a combined 16-27 without those losses included.  They haven’t played either the Steelers or Ravens until this week either.

Who? You have to be watching Bengals rookie QB Andy Dalton, who’s my pick for Offensive Rookie of the Year.  He’s completing over 60% of his passes and has a 12/7 TD/INT ratio (both better than hypemonger Cam Newton), but faces the famed Steel Blinds (not as reliable as a curtain, but can still do the job) for the first time.  I feel like there’s a Red Rifle / Steel Curtain communism joke here somewhere…

How? Check this game out while you’re off the coast of Cuba waiting for the end of days.  (There it is.)

What? Washington Redskins at Miami Dolphins

Why? If the Redskins hadn’t sold whatever they could of Rex Grossman’s soul to the devil to get to 3-1 to start the season, we could have been talking about two of the frontrunners in the famed Suck For Luck sweepstakes.  Alas, the ‘Skins have managed to screw up their draft earlier than they normally do, while the Dolphins managed to keep it respectable by simply dominating the Chiefs last week (remember when the Chiefs lost their first two games by a total of 89-10?  They’re 4-4 now).  Now it’s just a crappy game.

Who? Redskins QB John Beck returns to the site of his greatest accomplishment: losing five games for the 1-15 Dolphins as a rookie in 2007.  At least we’re seeing signs of improvement from him 4 years later; he threw one total touchdown in those five games, and has thrown two this year.  Also of note: he came into the league as a 25-year old (oh BYU, you crazy Mormons), and has now reached 30 years of age with as many touchdown passes as Cam Newton threw last week.

How? Watch it with another game on.  On the same TV.  No, you don’t have picture-in-picture.  Or DVR.  Now you get it.

What? New England Patriots at New York Jets

Why? Um, because Tom Brady and Mark Sanchez are like super stud-muffins!  No, that's not it.  Oh, you want to judge Nick Mangold as a candidate to be the replacement for the current Vikings mascot!  Really, that wasn't it?  Duh, that's because you saw my cousin Dave Dameshek's list of the best names in football and want to pay your respects to D'Brickashaw Ferguson!  There we go.

Who? Tom Terrific.  I want to find out if the Brady prior to and including his Week 5 matchup with the Jets (averaging 68% completions, 375 yards, and 9.4 yards per attempt) still exists, or did the Jets game take something out of him? (averaging 63% completions, 276 yards, and 6.6 ypa since)

How? Grab your camcorder, iPhone, or easel and spy on the Jets – I mean, watch the game with better clarity.  Besides, you won’t be able to see any of the signals behind Rex Ryan’s stomach.  Or ego.  Take your pick.

Week 9's Tight Games and Tight Divisions

While I still lie in wait for the results of the Eagles’ Game of the Year Part III, there was plenty of action last week.  This includes not one, not two, but three games (Giants/Patriots, Cardinals/Rams, Ravens/Steelers) that were decided in the final minute of play.  Since I was sickened for multiple reasons by the results of all three of these, I will discuss none of them.

Let’s get to the shenanigans.

PACKERS 45, CHARGERS 38

TRIUMPH: Yes, Philip Rivers threw for 385 yards and four touchdowns, which I’m sure will make people think he’s back in the saddle.  However, the Packers appeared to totally disregard Vincent Jackson (7 receptions, 141 yards, 3 TD), and the Packers’ pass defense is right at the bottom of the barrel with fellow preseason Super Bowl favorites, the New England Patriots.  Not to mention that Rivers threw 3 interceptions, with two being returned for touchdowns and the third being returned inside the 10.

TRAGEDY: Even after this game, the Chargers still rank as a top-five pass defense.  The Packers can throw on anyone, and frankly, they still held Aaron Rodgers to his lowest passing yardage total of the year.  This is a pretty solid defense that was made to look bad by its offense.

TREND: Yes, Aaron Rodgers threw for under 250 yards, but in his last two games he has completed 80 percent of his passes, thrown 7 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, and has a quarterback rating of right around 145 (and an ESPN Total QBR of 90.5 out of 100).  Through 8 games, he is on pace to break the NFL records for passing yardage, quarterback rating, and completion percentage.  Super Bowl Hangover fail.

TRAIL MIX: Jordy Nelson and James Jones appear to be mutually exclusive commodities, producing consistently in the aggregate but being wildly inconsistent individually.  In their last five games, Nelson and Jones have averaged 74 and 61 yards per game, respectively, with massive standard deviations of 38 and 47.  However, in that time they have combined for between 115 and 157 yards (a standard deviation of just 16).  It’s almost like they’re combining forces to become Calvin Johnson….

BRONCOS 38, RAIDERS 24

TRIUMPH: After netting 11 receptions for 114 yards in his first five games of the season, Jacoby Ford has five receptions for 105 yards and a touchdown in this game.  Now, with Carson Palmer recently installed as the starting quarterback, this may be a harbinger of future performances if Palmer just likes Ford more than other guys, but it still looks kind of random to me.

TRAGEDY: On the other side of that coin, Darrius Heyward-Bey was thrown to once and had zero receptions, coming on the heels of a four-game stretch where he averaged more than 5 receptions and 95 yards per game.  Again, we’ll have to see what having Palmer at quarterback does for the Raiders’ passing game (aside from having three interceptions per game).

TREND: Darren McFadden is a stud.  However, if he weren’t around, people would feel similarly about Michael Bush.  In the 9 games in which he has had at least 16 carries, he has averaged 109 yards, and was only held under 90 yards once (in a game against the stingy 49ers run defense). 

TRAIL MIX: Yes, we know Tim Tebow has divine powers, and I think only divine intervention could have produced these ridiculously similar rate stat lines in his two victories: 48.1% vs. 47.6% completions, 5.96 vs. 5.91 yards per attempt, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions in both games.  Even in the game he lost, the only real deviation from that pattern was Tebow throwing a pick-six and fumbling a bunch.

COWBOYS 23, SEAHAWKS 13

TRIUMPH: Marshawn Lynch, where did you come from?  Although he has scored in each of his last three games played, he had rushed for exactly 24 yards in two of them.  It was the 135 yards on 23 carries that was surprising, especially against the apparently-not-what-we-thought-they-were Cowboys run defense, who just allowed 160 yards rushing to a bottom-three rushing team.

TRAGEDY: Like I did last week as well, this is more of an actual tragedy than a disappointing performance.  Miles Austin started off the year with 14 receptions, 233 yards, and 4 touchdowns through 2 games, but a hamstring injury sidelined him for a month.  He came back into the lineup, but was not as effective, with 14 receptions, 170 yards, and no touchdowns in his next four games.  Now he has re-injured his hamstring, and this could be a major hindrance for him completing the season healthy.  And for two of my fantasy teams.

TREND: Evidently, DeMarco Murray is the second coming of Adrian Peterson.  Both players were injury concerns coming out of college, but Peterson put those fears to rest by having two 200-yard games in his rookie season, and being a consistent monster in the fantasy world.  Through three starts, Murray has 55 carries for 466 yards, good for an average of 8.5 yards per carry!  While the first two games were against the Rams and Eagles, two awful run defenses, the Seahawks were allowing just 3.2 yards per carry this season.  Dude’s legit.

TRAIL MIX: This really isn’t that related to this game, but both teams are involved, so we’ll go with it.  The NFC East, NFC West, AFC East, AFC North, and AFC West each have three teams that are within 1 game of each other, with the clumping in the AFC divisions being among the leaders and the NFC clumping being among the bottom teams (behind the Giants and 49ers, respectively).   Also, the AFC West happens to have all four teams within one game of each other.

Oops, the Seder Slate got passed over

Yes, I know, just last week I said I was going to start a new weekly column (remember, the Seder Slate?  No?  Hm.), but seeing as it’s as close to the middle of the NFL season as it’s going to get – stupid odd number of games – I have to join in the fun of assigning end-of-season accolades entirely too early.  I’m sure anyone who has watched ESPN or NFL Network in the last week has seen their fair share of these things, but here’s my pitch:  I have no credibility, so I can make all sorts of claims without my reputation being at stake! 

For instance, I hereby predict that the first coach fired at the end of the season will not be Dolphins coach Tony Sparano.  I have a couple thoughts as to who it will be (Lovie Smith, Steve Spagnuolo, Jack Del Rio, and Gary Kubiak or Norv Turner if their teams miss the playoffs), but it would be a pretty big upset if Sparano wasn’t fired first since the Dolphins made a strong play to hire Jim Harbaugh last offseason with Sparano still under contract.

Here are my picks for the playoff spots, compared to my picks before the season (in parentheses):

NFC

1. Green Bay Packers (7-0)     (Packers)

2. San Francisco 49ers (6-1)    (Falcons)

3. New Orleans Saints (5-3)    (Eagles)

4. New York Giants (5-2)       (Rams)

5. Detroit Lions (6-2)              (Cowboys)

6. Philadelphia Eagles (3-4)    (Saints)

AFC

1. New England Patriots (5-2)(Steelers)

2. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2)     (Patriots)

3. Houston Texans (5-3)         (Chargers)

4. San Diego Chargers (4-3)   (Texans)

5. Baltimore Ravens (5-2)       (Jets)

6. Cincinnati Bengals (5-2)     (Ravens)

Postseason awards?  I got your postseason awards right here!

Coach of the Year: After a 6-10 season (starting 0-5) and pretty much no change in the roster, 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh has turned his team around and has the Fighting Frank Gores in position to be the 2-seed in the NFC.  How’d he do it?  Alex Smith is 25^th in the league in pass attempts, 14 behind both Tarvaris Jackson and Sam Bradford, both of whom have missed significant time with injuries.

Fantasy Bust of the Year:  Chris Johnson, who has fewer rushing yards than Reggie Bush and as many as Jackie Battle, who had 13 carries for 37 yards through four weeks.

Rookie of the Year:  I know, everyone wants on the Cam Newton bandwagon, but I’m hitching my wagon to the Red Rifle, Andy Dalton.  Keep in mind that the Bengals shipped off T.O. and Ochocinco, had no legitimate quarterback that was willing to play for the team, and have Cedric Benson.  Dalton has started 5-2 for a team that started 2-11 last year and had basically no established offensive weapons at his disposal (Newton has Steve Smith, Greg Olsen, and the Williams/Stewart tandem at running back).

Team to lose the most consecutive games:  Going out of the box here, but I think that the Redskins have a legitimate shot at going 3-13 the hard way after starting 3-1.  I know, I know, the Colts have a legitimate shot at 0-16, but if they win a game in the next couple weeks I think that the ‘Skins are in the catbirds seat for a strong finish.

Team to win the most consecutive games whose fans don’t smell of gouda:  I’m seeing this year ending in a very similar fashion to last season for the Patriots.  They ripped off eight straight wins after losing embarrassingly to the Browns in Week 9, and I see the Steelers game this past week as a similar motivator.  The bigger advantage for the Pats is that while they played the Steelers, (last year’s) Colts, Jets, Bears, and Packers over the home stretch last year, this year they play nine teams with a combined record of 26-38.

Defensive Player of the Year:  The Man, the Myth, the Legend, Tim Tebow.  His completion percentage is below Rex Grossman, he’s been sacked 13 times and fumbled four times in two starts, and was directly responsible for two Lions touchdowns last week.  Some quarterbacks have done worse, but not with the small sample that Tebow has.

Fantasy MVP: If you look at total fantasy points against a replacement-level player of the same position, while also taking into account draft position, this is where Cam Newton comes into play.  Fred Jackson gets a strong Honorable Mention here, but Newton leads quarterbacks in fantasy scoring for the year after being essentially disregarded prior to the year.

Most Valuable Player:  Peyton Manning, and it’s not even close.  The Colts were 10-6 last year, and their skill position players (Clark, Collie, Addai) couldn’t stay healthy.  Now those guys are (for the most part) healthy, and a Curtis-Painter-led team is now 0-8 and a virtual lock to win 2 or fewer games.  That’s at least an 8-game swing by losing one player.  Keep in mind that the Patriots went 11-5 without Tom Brady in 2008 and you can’t say that the Packers would finish 2-7 if Rodgers was lost for the year after they almost beat the Patriots last year with Matt Flynn at quarterback.

Week 8's Trouncings and Tebowings

Normally, I try to stay away from discussing Eagles games in this forum to keep homer-ism at bay.  However, there’s only so many times that a team scores on its first six drives against a team that was highly touted defensively and coming off a 34-7 victory themselves.  Without further ado, the WD-4T for Week 8, starting with the Drubbing of Dallas.

EAGLES 34, COWBOYS 7

TRIUMPH: Tony Romo attempted 8 passes in the first half, and while Jason Witten was the main target of those throws, three of them targeted… Laurent Robinson?  He ended up with five catches on 8 targets for 103 yards, including a 70-yard TD.  Miles Austin and Dez Bryant combined for 6 catches on 8 targets for 55 yards.  I’d call this more of a statement about the Eagles’ secondary doing its job on the other guys than Robinson doing something special.

TRAGEDY: The Cowboys’ defense was ranked the best against the run in the league, averaging 70 rushing yards allowed per game.  Lesean McCoy had more than that in the first quarter of this game, eventually rushing for 185 of the team’s 239 yards in the contest.  The Eagles are running on everybody, and they have a lot of unconventional stretch and cutback running plays that Dallas is not likely to face much of against other teams.  I think their defense (at least against the run) is better than it showed last night.

TREND: Yes, there’s all the talk about Desean Jackson needing a new contract and how he makes this team explosive offensively, but as far as consistent offensive production goes, it’s really Jeremy Maclin that I feel is the more important receiver in this offense.  Maclin has 13 more receptions, 56 more yards, and 2 more touchdowns than Jackson this year (including the first game of the season, in which he was still recovering from a serious illness), and had 23 more receptions and 4 more touchdowns last year.  Most importantly, though, is that Maclin netted 8 more first downs than Jackson last year and is on pace for the same advantage this year.  Team consistency from week to week depends on consistent individual production, and that’s what Maclin has brought to the table the past few years.  Just make sure you leave some room on the payroll for him.

TRAIL MIX: Assorted nibblins’ for your consumption pleasure:

After running 25 times for 253 yards last week, DeMarco Murray did not disappoint, yielding 74 yards on just 8 carries against the Eagles.  Had the Eagles not given Cowboys defensive coordinator Rob Ryan something to chew on other than another cheeseburger, Murray was well on his way to a 150+ yard day.

Here’s a gold nugget:  The last time the Eagles scored 30 points in a game without having a pass play of more than 25 yards was Week 1 – of the 2009 season.  Brian Westbrook led the team in rushing, and McNabb and Kolb combined for just 82 yards passing, as Jake Delhomme threw 4 INTs and was replaced by Matt Moore and later Josh McCown.  Also note how none of those players are on those teams anymore, and that was just two years ago.

Lastly, the Eagles held the ball for over 42 of the 60 minutes of the game.  Domination.  Although, in 2009 I recall a game in which the Dolphins held the ball for over 45 minutes and still lost to the Colts.  Curtis Painter, you fail.

LIONS 45, BRONCOS 10

TRIUMPH: Despite being replaced by Willis McGahee thus far this season and being down big for most of the game, Knowshon Moreno had a solid day, running 14 times for 69 yards.  Actually, as a team the Broncos managed almost 200 yards rushing on 30 attempts.  Unfortunately, their success was more related to the fact that the Lions have a bottom-five run defense, although they have only allowed 3 rushing touchdowns.

TRAGEDY: Although I don’t consider this to be much of an anomaly, there’s really nothing in this game that came as close to a tragedy as Tim Tebow did.  Everyone talked this week about how bad he was for the first three quarters last week, and here he was this week with this future-MVP line: 7-21, 80 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT.  Even after more than doubling his passing yardage and completing over 60 percent of his passes in the fourth quarter, he finished with an ESPN Total QBR of 3.4 out of 100, the lowest for any quarterback with a sufficient amount of plays in any game since 2008.  Unfortunately for Tebow, Rex Grossman’s 2006 season was not in the sample.

TREND: Calvin Johnson has had between 5 and 7 receptions for between 113 and 130 yards and either 0 or 1 touchdown in each of his last four games.  This comes after he scored two touchdowns per game in the first four games of the season.  One word for the opposition: hitman. 

TRAIL MIX: I heard this one on TV today and thought it was compelling:  Tebow’s average yards-per-attempt rushing yesterday (6.3), while above his career average, was not anything special when it comes to running quarterbacks.  However, what is special is that his yards-per-attempt passing in this game was less than that (4.4).  For comparison, Matthew Stafford’s YPA was 8.9 on a solid but not spectacular day throwing the ball.

RAMS 31, SAINTS 21

TRIUMPH: Let’s be honest here:  the clear anomalous success is the fact that the Rams won this game.  I mean, they had just been beaten 34-7 by (as we saw emphasized yesterday) an average Cowboys team, and the Saints had just absolutely destroyed the Colts 62-7.  The Rams were missing Sam Bradford for a second straight week, and hadn’t won a game all year.  And then this?

TRAGEDY: A rookie set the Cowboys single-game rushing record against the Rams last week, and the Saints come marching in and run for… 56 yards on 20 carries?  I know, they were down a lot, but they weren’t down more than 10 points until the very end of the first half.  The Rams were the worst run defense in the league, and the Saints failed to take advantage.

TREND: Drew Brees is a little bit of a gunslinger, no?  He’s had 4 games of at least 2 interceptions this year already, and is coming off a career-high 22 INT’s in 2010.  In 3 of the Saints’ 8 losses since 2010, Brees has had 3 or more INT’s, and that recklessness has caused them to lose inexplicably to the Cardinals, Browns, and Rams in that span.

TRAIL MIX: This game reminded me a whole lot of the Patriots losing to the Browns 34-14 in Cleveland last year when the Pats were 6-1 and the Browns were 2-5.  Uncharacteristically poor play by an elite quarterback?  Check.  Failing to run the ball effectively when you didn’t trail by more than 10 for almost half the game?  Check.  Allowing more rushing yards than passing yards?  Check.