Happy New Year!

Well, well, well, would you look at this!  It appears that the Jewish New Year and the Football New Year (if you will) are coinciding this year, making for quite the holiday for most of the country.  OK, maybe 99% of those people are into it for the football).  Rosh Hashanah brings in a time for repentance, prayer, and charity.  There will be plenty of prayer this weekend and for many more upcoming thanks to football, but I'm not really sure that we're in a position for repentance, as there haven't been any games played.  But maybe I can give you guys a bit of charity in providing the set-'em-in-stone NFL season picks that we all know and love.  And I'm a man of forgiveness in this holiday season, so I'll even give you how well I did last year, and you can forgive me :D

AFC EAST
	2012 Predicted	2012 Actual	Difference	2013 Predicted
Patriots	13-3	12-4	-1	11-5
Dolphins	3-13	7-9	4	7-9
Jets	6-10	6-10	0	5-12
Bills	7-9	6-10	-1	5-12

I was pretty accurate with this division last season with the exception of my underestimating Ryan Tannehill, Reggie Bush, and the Dolphins' D.  The Patriots lost a couple offensive weapons (and that doesn't include the guns Aaron Hernandez used to have), but their defense has improved over the past couple years and there's always Brady.  The Dolphins should be passable offensively and defensively, but I don't have enough confidence in Tannehill or Lamar Miller to put them higher.  The Jets won't be as bad as you would think, especially if Chris Ivory does what I think he can do and New York's most eligible Butt-Fumbler gets back under center (yes, I do actually think he's their best option).  The Bills have some serious quarterback and defense problems, and I'm not sure they will get out of CJ Spiller what everyone thinks they will after his breakout last year.

            

AFC NORTH
	2012 Predicted	2012 Actual	Difference	2013 Predicted
Ravens	12-4	10-6	-2	9-7
Bengals	8-8	10-6	2	10-6
Steelers	10-6	8-8	-2	9-7
Browns	3-13	5-11	2	7-9

I was 2 games off on all the teams in this division last year, which meant it was much more tightly bunched than I expected.  I have adjusted expectations this time around, predicting the top 3 teams to end up within 1 game of each other.  I think the Ravens weren't really that good last year and should be worse offensively, while the Steelers are already experiencing backfield issues and no longer have James Harrison.  There seems to be a lot of optimism around the Browns this preseason, and I'm buying it to some extent.  Their second-year QB/RB/WR combo could come into their own, and their defense was underrated last season, but they are still likely to be the worst team in this division so I can't expect much from them.

            

AFC SOUTH
	2012 Predicted	2012 Actual	Difference	2012 Predicted
Texans	10-6	12-4	2	11-5
Colts	5-11	11-5	6	9-7
Titans	9-7	6-10	-3	6-10
Jaguars	5-11	2-14	-3	6-10

The Colts were (retrospectively) unsurprisingly the biggest positive surprise based on my expectations, while my optimism about the Titans' and Jaguars' progress was not rewarded.  I also expected the Texans to regress slightly, and while there were chinks in their defensive armor, the offense was as good as it's been in recent years.  I still expect Houston to be tops in the division, partially because I expect the league to catch up to the Colts a bit after their emotional run last season.  The Titans tried very hard to improve their offensive line, and that should help Jake Locker get comfortable and Chris Johnson get more room, but their defense needs to improve for them to go anywhere.  There's similar optimism about the Jags' offense as with the Browns, but I have less confidence in Blaine Gabbert and the Jags' defense for whatever reason. 

            

AFC WEST
	2012 Predicted	2012 Actual	Difference	2012 Predicted
Broncos	10-6	13-3	3	12-4
Chargers	9-7	7-9	-2	7-9
Raiders	7-9	4-12	-3	3-13
Chiefs	8-8	2-14	-6	8-8

             
The Broncos did even better than I expected last year thanks to an excellent defense and a better-than-expected Peyton Manning, while the rest of the division languished in mediocrity at best.  The Chiefs were especially disappointing despite Jamaal Charles' excellent season, and I expect them to get back on the horse this season with their new average quarterback and, odd as it is to say, Andy Reid at the helm.  The Raiders have no quarterback, no offensive line, and no defense, and should be the doormat of the AFC in the coming year.  The Chargers will be good enough to beat decent teams, but bad enough to lose to bad teams, and will just sort of be there until something happens with Philip Rivers one way or the other.  I expect the Broncos' defense to regress with Bailey and Miller out for a bit and Dumervil over in Baltimore, but their offense should be even more explosive with the additions of Wes Welker and Julius Thomas.

NFC EAST
	2012 Predicted	2012 Actual	Difference	2013 Predicted
Redskins	6-10	10-6	4	8-8
Giants	8-8	9-7	1	8-8
Cowboys	7-9	8-8	1	9-7
Eagles	10-6	4-12	-6	6-10

The Redskins joined the Colts as surprising teams thanks to their top-2 rookie QBs, while the Eagles massively disappointed after an equivalently disappointing 2012, and that caused the aforementioned Reid to be ousted.  I think Chip Kelly's offense will help things, but it's not as revolutionary as people think it will be (the Patriots are basically already using it, but they have Tom Brady), and that defense is going to be brutal.  The 'Skins are going to have to cut back on RGIII's run options, which will reduce the effectiveness of the offense even without considering that he might be limited by his injury.  The Giants are already banged up and out of sync offensively, but they always manage to be competitive.  I don't feel at all confident in this given their history and the division's, but I think the Cowboys' offense is going to really shine if they can get anything useful from the running game that was way below average last season.

            

NFC NORTH
	2012 Predicted	2012 Actual	Difference	2013 Predicted
Packers	13-3	11-5	-2	11-5
Vikings	3-13	10-6	7	6-10
Bears	9-7	10-6	1	9-7
Lions	9-7	4-12	-5	7-9

It's hard for a team not to overachieve when they have a guy rush for 2000 yards, but with P. Harv's abbreviated breakout and Christian Ponder's not-messing-it-up-too-much, the Vikings really had a surprising year.  At the same time, the Lions' offense had a lot of red zone issues and the defensive line wasn't as disruptive as Ndamukong Suh would lead you to believe, so they fell of the cliff.  The Packers regressed a bit last season thanks to their defense and lack of running game, and while they should be able to run the ball with Lacy added, they've lost some passing weapons, a left tackle, and Charles Woodson.  The Bears are going to be good enough offensively and defensively to be competitive, but I don't see them making the playoffs if their defense isn't as opportunistic as last season.

            

NFC SOUTH
	2012 Predicted	2012 Actual	Difference	2013 Predicted
Falcons	12-4	13-3	1	11-5
Saints	10-6	7-9	-3	10-6
Buccaneers	7-9	7-9	0	7-9
Panthers	7-9	7-9	0	6-10

I was really good at picking this division last year, although I didn't expect the Saints' loss of Sean Payton for the year to have as much of an impact as it did.  That said, he's back and is probably mad, so they could have an '07 Patriots kind of vindictive approach offensively that gets them right back on the horse.  The Falcons probably hit their peak last year, so I expect them to decline a bit, especially if the Saints are back in business.  The Bucs had a great start and then fell off towards the end of last year, and while I think Freeman isn't likely to improve any, the defensive backfield and offensive line are going to be better, so this 7-9 mark may be an underestimate.  The Panthers just don't seem to have enough weapons offensively to optimize Cam Newton, and their defense still leaves something to be desired, so I can't see them getting out of the cellar in this division.

            

NFC WEST
	2012 Predicted	2012 Actual	Difference	2013 Predicted
49ers	10-6	11-4-1	1.5	10-6
Seahawks	7-9	11-5	4	10-6
Rams	6-10	7-8-1	1.5	8-8
Cardinals	7-9	5-11	-2	7-9

It's hard to believe that three years ago the winner of this division was 7-9, and this year I'm picking the loser to be 7-9.  The Seahawks were the third team to really overachieve with a rookie QB, while the 49ers continued their dominance despite switching quarterbacks midseason.  I expect both quarterbacks to be figured out a bit (probably Wilson more than Kaepernick because I trust Kaep's arm more), but those defenses are solid.  Also, the Rams' new offensive weapons and the Cardinals' actually professional quarterback should make the bottom half of the division more competitive and keep the top half less dominant.  

           

So how would the playoffs look if my word were law?

AFC	NFC
Patriots	Packers
Bengals	Falcons
Texans	Cowboys
Broncos	49ers
Colts	Seahawks
Ravens	Saints

That's actually a significantly-below-average amount of turnover for playoff teams (only the Cowboys and Saints would represent new teams from last year), but I feel like the new super-special-awesome young quarterbacks have provided a stability in the upper-middle-class that wasn't there in previous years.  I think the Bengals and Colts are the most vulnerable of the remaining teams that made it last year due to competition in the division and some potential regression at the QB position, but I really don't feel at all confident in taking any of the middle-tier teams in the AFC to make a jump.  Especially not the Jets, in case you were wondering.

Frameshmania Year 6 Draft Review

OK, I’m going to apologize in advance to the ardent fans of this blog for the lack of dedication I am about to display.  Last season I did a 12-page draft review for the league for which I am commissioner, Frameshmania.  This year, I have a much busier schedule with work, so this is only going to be like 6.  And it will probably look a lot like the Mad Decent Jawnskies review I did last week, but with better teams, considering the format here: 8 teams, 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 Flex, meaning that 32 fewer players start in this league than in Jawnskies.

So in my other draft review I looked back at my previous review to see how I did, and it was ugly.  How about this league?

Team	Predicted	Actual
Hometown Mamas	1	5
Sabotage the League	2	6
Trophy Me Maybe	3	8
J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets	4	2
Hoosier Daddy	5	3
Salt Lake City Big Tymers	6	4
Detroit Football	7	1
DelCo's Side-Arm Stud	8	7
Correlation	-0.2619

Wow, I am just awful at this.

Let’s just get it over with.

Fantasy-Football-Eligible NFL Players Who Should Do Better/Worse Than Expected: Remastered

Last season, I waited until I was drafting my last fantasy football team of the season to release a blog post about which players I liked/disliked heading into the season.  Don't want to give away my hand, you know?  Well, since my last draft is with people from work and no one from that league reads this, I'll go a little ahead of schedule and tell everyone who I've been a fan of in this mock draft season.  Until last week I hadn't done more than a couple mock drafts, which stands in stark contrast to the 30+ hours I spent preparing for fantasy season last year.  And after all that, THIS is the list of picks I came up with:

Thumbs Up
Pierre Garcon (injured, but otherwise solid)
Donald Brown (yeah, he finished below the lesser-known Andre and Bryce)
Ryan Williams (uh, 13 total points)
Steven Jackson (finished 16th, which was decent, but not enough to claim it)
Michael Vick (still got injured, but didn't have the per-game output)
Darren McFadden (yeah, even his per-game average would have put him outside the top 20.  Blech)
Ryan Fitzpatrick (finished 20th at his position, not so much)
Percy Harvin (this beautiful man managed to hurt himself just as I traded for him -- sigh)
Eric Decker (now, we'll see why this was only a half-successful prediction, but still, 7th at WR)
Peyton Hillis (uh, 30 total points)
Mikel Leshoure (missed two games and still ended up top-20?  That's a win.)
Greg Olsen (didn't own him on any teams, but finished a very solid 6th)

Thumbs Down
Rob Gronkowski (wow.  Missed 5 games and still ended up second at the position.)
Marshawn Lynch (maybe even worse, he finished 4th at the position)
Andre Johnson (a former flame, a monster second half got him all the way up to 7th)
Trent Richardson (man, this is a rough list -- finished 11th at RB while missing a game)
Wes Welker (yeesh, are we done yet?  12th at WR.)
Demaryius Thomas (yeah, guess not.  5th.)
Jermichael Finley (FINALLY!  Thank you, JMF, for finishing 17th at tight end.)


Since apparently it's not a good idea to tell people which players I don't want to draft, let's stay a little positive.  I've done 16 mock drafts in preparation for my Frameshmania 8-team draft (2 at each draft position), and recorded all of the players that I took at least four times.  Let's take a look at the tape:

QB
Peyton Manning (5 times) -- I value the top 12 or so RB's and 5 WR's over Brees and Rodgers in most circumstances, but if Manning falls and I've been able to grab at least one top player at each of those positions, I'm good with that.

RB
David Wilson (7 times) -- I don't even think of myself as a Wilson lover, but that range in the draft lacks interesting WR options, so the top-15 upside of Wilson is intriguing.
Reggie Bush (5 times) -- Speedy pass-catching running back in an offense that throws all the time?  Injury risk on the turf 8+ games a year, but a pretty high floor if he stays healthy.
Lesean McCoy (5 times) -- I absolutely love him as a player, the fact that I didn't take him more often is about my concern that Chip Kelly rotates his backs to keep them fresh in his frenetic offense.
Jamaal Charles (4 times) -- His frame makes him an injury concern and he's too touchdown-poor to feel great drafting him in the top 3, but the Andy Reid offense is a very intriguing for his skills.
Matt Forte (4 times) -- Was a guy I really liked last year, but got hurt and didn't live up to it.  Still a very big part of the offense and has a high floor compared to a lot of the guys going after him, so I'll take him as an RB2 and let you guys fight over the riskier plays.
Chris Ivory (4 times) -- OK, this is one of those risky plays, but I've always liked his tough running style and big-play ability, and now he gets the shot to get the lion's share of the work on an offense that isn't going to pass much.  Obviously, injury / Jets-ness could ruin it.
Fred Jackson (4 times) -- Once you get around the 100th pick, the running backs are really sad-looking.  So why not take a guy with top-10 upside behind a slight and injury-prone-in-college Spiller?
Lamar Miller (4 times) -- Like Wilson, I don't actually like Miller this year, but it must just be that the pickin's are so slim at WR at that point in the draft that I just take a lottery ticket in Miller and go for receivers later.
Stevan Ridley (4 times) -- With the way the Patriots run the ball (and the way they've continued to do so in the preseason), I think Ridley is an excellent option as a second back instead of going for a back-end-of-the-top-10 receiver.

WR
Steve Smith (8 times) -- Like a few of the receivers on this list, Smith is a common pick at a point in the draft where the running backs have dried up but there are still some intriguing receivers on the board.  I go with Smith because of his security in the offensive scheme.
Miles Austin (7 times) -- Massively underrated in my estimation, there will be a lot of attention going towards Dez Bryant, and as long as he stays healthy, Austin should benefit.
Torrey Smith (6 times) -- This might be a little bit of a post-hype sleeper thing, but maybe everyone else in the Ravens passing game getting hurt will help Smith be more consistent.
TY Hilton (5 times) -- I have to say, I'm not as high on Hilton as I was two weeks ago after hearing about the dramatic change of offensive scheme between Bruce Arians and Pep Hamilton (mostly in the way of running the ball 15% more), but he's still got explosive upside with an improving QB.
Greg Jennings (5 times) -- He can't be THAT useless, right?
Mike Wallace (5 times) -- I'll only take him if he lasts outside the top 20 receivers (and ideally not as a starter), but at that point I'm willing to take a chance  on his athleticism and a sophomore surge from Ryan Tannehill.
Reggie Wayne (5 times) -- The offensive scheme should affect Hilton more than Wayne, however, because the Hamilton offense will use more 2-tight-end sets and potentially keep Hilton off the field while Wayne is still out there to grab 90+ balls.
Danny Amendola (4 times) -- Whatever I thought of Wes Welker last year, Amendola is younger and faster, so his upside is pretty high for a guy going where he is.
Antonio Brown (4 times) -- A guy I liked last year, Brown now has less competition and another year in the Todd Haley system.
Larry Fitzgerald (4 times) -- Sure, he completely disappeared last season, but even below-average Carson Palmer is lightyears better than the slop he dealt with last year.  Has to be at the back end of the top 10 receivers though.
Andre Johnson (4 times) -- I guess I'm back on the wagon, just in time for him to get hurt again.  He proved that he doesn't need a lot of TDs or a pass-heavy offense to be relevant, and maybe DeAndre Hopkins cuts back on the double-teams.
Jordy Nelson (4 times) -- A guy who would have been drafted near the top 10 going outside the top 20 because of an injury that isn't likely to hold him out of the regular season?  Sign me up.

TE
Jermichael Finley (7 times) -- Yes, yes, I know.  Betting on the one guy who made me look good last year by betting against him?  Well, there's a lot of preseason hype for him, there's less competition in the offense, and he's at least got the offense and athleticism to break away from the herd of tight ends from 7-15.
Kyle Rudolph (4 times) -- I know, he had terrible games almost half the time last year, but he has to be more consistent this year without Percy Harvin getting 15 looks a game, right?  And frankly, I'm not taking him unless it's pretty late in the draft.


NOT-LISTED-ABOVE-BUT-STILL-WANT-SOME-OF-THAT-ACTION
QB -- Matthew Stafford, Tony Romo, Eli Manning
RB -- Maurice Jones-Drew, Ryan Mathews, Daryl Richardson
WR -- Dwayne Bowe (I have a problem), Pierre Garcon, Kenny Stills (obviously much later)
TE --Jordan Cameron, Brandon Pettigrew, Ed Dickson

Mad Decent Draft Review 2k13

It's that time of year again, folks.  Time to start pretending like I know more than everyone else about fantasy football!  You may recall that I had a bit of a breakdown at the end of the previous fantasy season, but as you might expect given the state of the Phillies, I'm bright-eyed, bushy-tailed, and ready to go find some acorns!  You know, if acorns were, uh, sleeper picks.  Yeah, that works.

Moving on.

Last season I did a pretty thorough review of the Mad Decent Jawnskies fantasy draft, giving position ratings for each team and weighting them against the impact that each position tends to have on scoring.  I'll be doing a bit of a lighter version of that this year (work sucks), but I'd also like to take a look at what I did last year to see if I really do have any ability to predict anything.

Team	Predicted	Actual
Juice Springsteen	1	4
TheChampIsHere	2	10
Half in the Hand	3	9
Goddamnit Donald!	4	7
Dallas Cowboys	5	6
The Girl	6	2
West Coast Offense	7	5
lustcheese	8	8
Team Functionality	9	1
Mr. TitleTown	10	3
Correlation	-0.527

Uh... we should probably just move on.

Remember, this is a 2 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 RB/WR/TE league, so there's a pretty big premium placed on receivers and quarterbacks, and they disappeared pretty quickly.  You'll also know that I didn't put defenses or kickers in these rankings.  Serves all you defense-in-the-9th-round-drafters right.

lustcheese

1	RB	Adrian Peterson
2	QB	Tom Brady
3	WR	Dez Bryant
4	WR	Andre Johnson
5	QB	Tony Romo
6	WR	James Jones
7	TE	Jason Witten
8	RB	Ahmad Bradshaw
9	TE	Kyle Rudolph
10	WR	Golden Tate
11	WR	Brian Hartline
12	RB	Michael Turner
13	RB	BenJarvus Green-Ellis
14	QB	Philip Rivers
15	K	Blair Walsh
16	DEF	St. Louis
17	RB	Michael Bush

QB -- 3rd: In a 2 QB league, Getting Brady at the end of the second round and Romo at the start of the   5th (as the 12th QB off the board) is a steal, as they're very likely to both be top-10 options, but neither of them is likely to be in the top 3 this year given Brady's lost weapons and Romo's Romo-ness.
RB -- 7th: Starting with AP is all well and good, but having injury-prone Bradshaw as your second RB and not-on-a-team Michael Turner as your third?  smh.
WR -- 3rd: He's gotta depend on James Jones keeping up his otherworldly touchdown pace from last year and Andre Johnson staying healthy, but it's a pretty good group, with some interesting backups in Tate and Hartline.
TE -- 3rd: He took a second tight end before five teams took their first, so this is as much a depth ranking as anything, but Witten and Rudolph should both be good enough to start most weeks, and with the TE being flex-able, it's a good bye-week option.


Half in the Hand

1	QB	Aaron Rodgers
2	RB	Matt Forte
3	WR	A.J. Green
4	QB	Robert Griffin III
5	RB	Reggie Bush
6	WR	Antonio Brown
7	WR	Jordy Nelson
8	RB	Darren Sproles
9	RB	Eddie Lacy
10	WR	Anquan Boldin
11	RB	Rashard Mendenhall
12	QB	Carson Palmer
13	TE	Fred Davis
14	WR	Kenbrell Thompkins
15	RB	Fred Jackson
16	DEF	Green Bay
17	K	Matt Prater

QB -- 2nd: Well when you take Aaron Rodgers at 2 and follow it up with a high-upside pick like RGIII, you can't be too bad off.  Palmer should be pretty solid in relief, but this not being #1 is mostly about the risk in the RGIII pick.

RB -- 3rd: Sure, Forte-Bush isn't the best starting pairing out there, but having Sproles, Lacy, and Mendenhall in the wings shows a lot of depth at a position that usually requires it.  And Fred Jackson is an injury away from being top-15 himself.

WR -- 4th: We really could have seen the Packers fan picking Jordy Nelson coming, but as a third receiver he's a pretty good proposition despite the injury concerns.  Boldin should be a perfectly acceptable bye-week fill-in, and Thompkins is a good sleeper-du-jour pick.

TE -- 9th: Fred Davis is a forgotten man at the position because of his injury last year, and that makes him an intriguing value pick in the 13th round, but it's a lottery ticket as much as any other tight end that late.



The Girl

1	QB	Drew Brees
2	RB	Stevan Ridley
3	WR	Brandon Marshall
4	RB	Lamar Miller
5	QB	Eli Manning
6	WR	Reggie Wayne
7	WR	Steve Smith
8	RB	Giovani Bernard
9	TE	Greg Olsen
10	WR	Greg Jennings
11	DEF	Houston
12	RB	Andre Brown
13	WR	Emmanuel Sanders
14	QB	Jake Locker
15	TE	Rob Housler
16	RB	Shonn Greene
17	K	Justin Tucker

QB -- 1st: Brees was somewhat quietly the best fantasy QB last year, and if the Eli See-Saw goes back up this year (and he should be able to watch a lot more film now because he's got football on his phone), this is a great combo.  I'm not a Locker fan, but a starter with running ability is a decent fantasy backup.

RB -- 9th: After Ridley, there are a lot of questionably-involved backs on this roster.  Miller is assumed to be a starter, but he's got almost no experience, and Bernard, Brown, and Greene could easily be on the short end of committees.

WR -- 2nd: I'm as much a Marshall fan as anyone, and pairing oldies-but-goodies Wayne and Smith with him likely means consistent production over the course of the season.  With their age, though, comes bust potential, and Jennings and Sanders should be consistently involved in their respective offenses, so they'll be decent fill-ins.

TE -- 7th: I like Olsen as a starting TE, but as the 7th off the board I'm not sure the value is there.  Housler has been getting some buzz, but a new QB and little experience makes this more of a lottery play.


Red-Not So PC-Skins

1	RB	Doug Martin
2	RB	Trent Richardson
3	RB	Maurice Jones-Drew
4	WR	Roddy White
5	WR	Vincent Jackson
6	WR	Hakeem Nicks
7	TE	Rob Gronkowski
8	QB	Joe Flacco
9	DEF	Seattle
10	QB	Alex Smith
11	K	Phil Dawson
12	RB	DeAngelo Williams
13	RB	Ronnie Hillman
14	TE	Jared Cook
15	WR	Rueben Randle
16	QB	Brandon Weeden
17	DEF	Arizona

QB -- 9th: Somehow I'm not making this set of quarterbacks the worst, despite the fact that he took his first quarterback after every other team had taken two.  However, I think Flacco and Smith have more upside than Bradford and Schaub (who start for the 10th-ranked team), and Weeden has shown some actual life this preseason.

RB -- 1st: Easily the best running back crop in the league, Martin, Richardson, and Jones-Drew* were drafted before 8 teams had taken their second RB.  And D-Will and R-Hill are great upside plays given the uncertainty about the role of their backfield mates.
*MJD was dropped soon after the draft for Zach Sudfeld, so this ranking is already outdated, but this is a draft review after all

WR -- 8th: If this were two years ago, this team would be in a position to be number 1 at the position, but White's declining role, V-Jax's questionable quarterback play and big-play dependence, and Nicks' injuries make this a pretty risky roster to have.  Add that to the fact that there's only one backup, and that backup's upside is mostly as a handcuff to Nicks' injury-prone-ness, means that there may be some issues as the season progresses.

TE -- 2nd: Gronk should return relatively early in the season*, and when he does, he'll probably go back to being dominant.  In the meantime, an upside play in Cook is as good a shot as any to hit it big.
*The pickup of Sudfeld after the draft makes this group even more intriguing, as Sudfeld has shown some serious upside in the Pats' offense absent Gronkowski.


TheChampIsHere

1	RB	LeSean McCoy
2	QB	Russell Wilson
3	WR	Demaryius Thomas
4	QB	Michael Vick
5	RB	DeMarco Murray
6	TE	Vernon Davis
7	WR	DeSean Jackson
8	WR	Cecil Shorts
9	WR	Tavon Austin
10	RB	Ben Tate
11	WR	Josh Gordon
12	WR	Michael Floyd
13	RB	Mark Ingram
14	TE	Antonio Gates
15	WR	Alshon Jeffery
16	DEF	Denver
17	K	Josh Brown

QB -- 6th: This is certainly the most run-heavy QB roster, and therefore there's a fair amount of risk here.  Wilson will need to keep up his running success and improve as a passer to justify his position, but this is really more about Vick staying healthy and turnover-free, as he doesn't have a third QB like many teams that probably need it less.

RB -- 10th: I had a hard time organizing the lower-end teams at this position, so it hurts me to put a team with Shady in last.  But with only four backs and two of them being limited in upside in their current roles, this ranking is more about depth than the starters.

WR -- 9th: Demaryius seemed like a reach in the mid-3rd round given the glut of mouths to feed in Denver, but really this is about waiting to fill the other slots and ending up with a bunch of question marks in D-Jax, Shorts, Austin, and Gordon.  I think it's a good group of upside plays, and at least one of them should hit, but at the start of the season it's a pretty concerning roster.

TE -- 4th: Vernon Davis almost singlehandedly killed one of my fantasy teams late last year, but he rallied in the playoffs, so it's hard to know what to expect here.  Gates is way past his prime, but having 2 TE is better than one, I guess, so this team may be a bit over-ranked.


West Coast Offense

1	RB	C.J. Spiller
2	QB	Colin Kaepernick
3	WR	Julio Jones
4	RB	Chris Johnson
5	QB	Andy Dalton
6	WR	Wes Welker
7	WR	Mike Wallace
8	RB	Ryan Mathews
9	WR	T.Y. Hilton
10	RB	Daryl Richardson
11	WR	Chris Givens
12	QB	Ryan Tannehill
13	WR	Ryan Broyles
14	TE	Martellus Bennett
15	DEF	Cincinnati
16	TE	Brandon Myers
17	K	Kai Forbath

QB -- 8th: Kaepernick is a fine starter, but Dalton and Tannehill are not likely to set the world on fire as possible second starters.  He was one of the last teams to fill his second QB slot, so this is understandable, but it's just not an inspiring group.

RB -- 4th: With four starters on the roster in Spiller, Johnson, Mathews, and Richardson, this is a roster with similar top-end quality to Half in the Hand, but there are much more significant performance/injury concerns about this group than about some of the other teams ranked higher.  And as a Ryan Mathews owner last year, I should know.

WR -- 7th: There's some nice later picks in Hilton, Givens, and Broyles, but I'm not a huge fan of Welker and Wallace as starters given their uncertain roles in new offenses.  Now that I look at it this might be an under-ranking, but there's enough question-marks to make me feel OK about it.

TE -- 8th: As the last team to take a tight end, this ranking is a testament to the picks made.  Picking up a second upside play at the position moved him above teams who took a TE late without one.


King in the North!

1	QB	Peyton Manning
2	RB	Alfred Morris
3	TE	Jimmy Graham
4	QB	Andrew Luck
5	WR	Torrey Smith
6	RB	David Wilson
7	WR	Stevie Johnson
8	WR	Miles Austin
9	RB	Montee Ball
10	WR	Sidney Rice
11	RB	Shane Vereen
12	WR	Lance Moore
13	WR	Denarius Moore
14	WR	DeAndre Hopkins
15	RB	Jacquizz Rodgers
16	DEF	New England
17	K	Steven Hauschka

QB -- 4th: Manning should be money-in-the-bank this season, but I don't think Luck returns his top-10 draft value because of the less pass-heavy offense he will run this year.  Not drafting a third QB could cause a problem in bye weeks as well.

RB -- 8th: Morris should be just fine this year, but having Wilson, Ball, Vereen, and Rodgers behind him means that you're worrying about workload all year long.  I like the upside of those guys, but you would need another steady starter to make me feel better.

WR -- 10th: Three teams took a second WR before Torrey Smith was taken as this team's first, and a Smith/Johnson/Austin starting group is a pretty low-upside collection.  At least there's a lot of depth and presumably productive bye-week and injury fill-ins, but I'm not sure any receiver on this roster except Smith has top-10 upside.

TE -- 1st: Jimmy Graham.  'Nuff said.


Bust a Kaep

1	RB	Arian Foster
2	RB	Marshawn Lynch
3	WR	Larry Fitzgerald
4	WR	Randall Cobb
5	WR	Dwayne Bowe
6	WR	Marques Colston
7	QB	Sam Bradford
8	QB	Matt Schaub
9	TE	Jermichael Finley
10	DEF	San Francisco
11	WR	Percy Harvin
12	QB	Josh Freeman
13	TE	Owen Daniels
14	RB	Danny Woodhead
15	WR	Michael Crabtree
16	K	Sebastian Janikowski
17	RB	LaMichael James

QB -- 10th: Mentioned in passing above, a Bradford-Schaub combo is thoroughly uninspiring, and frankly, I think I'd draft his backup Freeman over either of those two, so perhaps it's not so bad.  Obviously, the strategy was to load up at skill positions, and it looks like it worked.

RB -- 2nd: Foster and Lynch are probably the best 1-2 in the league, but waiting until the 14th round to take another back is risky.  And LaMichael James appears to just be a 49ers-fanboy pick.
*Ronnie Hillman was picked up after the draft, so this makes the roster look a bit deeper.

WR -- 1st: Obviously the skill-position-heavy draft strategy was in play here, as this team had four receivers before five teams even had two.  There is literally no depth after that, though, as seriously-injured-and-not-likely-to-play-for-two-months-or-more Percy Harvin and Michael Crabtree are nonsensical picks*.
*Harvin and Crabtree have since been dropped for depth at other positions.

TE -- 6th: Finley is gaining some steam as a bounceback candidate, and I sort of buy it considering the loss of some WR talent in Green Bay.  Daniels is a solid second tight end, but his upside is limited.


Juice Springsteen (this guy)

1	WR	Calvin Johnson
2	RB	Ray Rice
3	QB	Matt Ryan
4	QB	Matthew Stafford
5	RB	Frank Gore
6	WR	Pierre Garcon
7	RB	Darren McFadden
8	WR	Mike Williams
9	RB	Chris Ivory
10	WR	Vincent Brown
11	RB	Bernard Pierce
12	WR	Kenny Britt
13	QB	EJ Manuel
14	TE	Jordan Cameron
15	DEF	Pittsburgh
16	K	Stephen Gostkowski
17	WR	Kenny Stills

QB -- 5th: With nearly back-to-back picks at the end of the third and start of the fourth round, I felt I had to pull the trigger and get two solid QBs while I still could.  I think they'll be solid top-10 options, and as a flier, I like going with the running QB with some decent skill position players around him in Manuel.  However, without a top-flight starter, I can't rank myself too high.

RB -- 6th: My draft position sort of squeezed me out of more exciting options, so I'm really not happy with this group*.  I immediately regretted the McFadden pick, but think I recovered nicely with an upside starter in Ivory and handcuff in Pierce.
*However, I was the fortunate recipient of the MJD gift basket, so this would be a top-3 group if I drafted that way.

WR -- 6th: With a bunch of RB's and the top 3 QB's off the board by the time I picked and Charles, Rice, and Lynch still available to drop to me in the second round, I went with Megatron, who is really the only solid pick of this group.  I love Garcon, but he's an injury risk, and there's a lot of question marks around Williams, Brown, and Britt.

TE -- 10th: I was the second-to-last team to take a TE, and was definitely not taking two, so I'm willing to rank myself last here.  However, there's a lot of hype surrounding Cameron this season, so maybe I can get lucky and get a top-8 season out of him.



The Lady Macarthurs

1	RB	Jamaal Charles
2	QB	Cam Newton
3	WR	Victor Cruz
4	RB	Steven Jackson
5	WR	Danny Amendola
6	TE	Tony Gonzalez
7	WR	Eric Decker
8	QB	Ben Roethlisberger
9	K	Matt Bryant
10	RB	Le'Veon Bell
11	DEF	Chicago
12	QB	Jay Cutler
13	RB	Bryce Brown
14	RB	Vick Ballard
15	WR	Malcom Floyd
16	WR	Justin Blackmon
17	WR	Darrius Heyward-Bey

QB -- 7th: Cam bounced back very well in the second half last year to convince people he wasn't a fluke, but being the 8th team to take a second quarterback limits the ranking here.  Roethlisberger should be pretty good as long as he's healthy, but the O-line concerns still remain.  Cutler's a more-than-serviceable backup, but there's no upside there.

RB -- 5th: Very good starters in Charles and Jackson, but a potential-committee-member in Bell* and two backups in Brown and Ballard make this a shallow group.
*At the time of the draft, Bell was not yet injured and out for a month or two.  This obviously bumps the group down to more like a 7th-8th ranking.

WR -- 5th: No top-tier options, but some nice top-20 starters in Cruz, Amendola, and Decker followed by some decent backup fliers makes this an intriguing group, if slightly limited in upside.

TE -- 5th:  Gonzalez is a no-frills consistent option, but at some point his age has to catch up with him, right?  If that happens, without a backup this could get ugly.


The Verdict

Using a rough estimate of the average scoring of each position multiplied by the number of roster spots available for that position multiplied by the rank, here's how I see the season shaking out (which, of course, will mean that my worst-rated teams will win):

10. TheChampIsHere -- Ranked highly last year but disappointed, and did poorly in fantasy baseball this year, so maybe he's just not good at this.
9. West Coast Offense -- Interesting running backs but ending up on the back end of the quarterback and receiver runs hurts.
8. King in the North! -- Sure, getting a top QB and TE is good, but going Manning and Graham in the first three rounds really hamstrung the RB/WR positions.
7. Juice Springsteen -- I just don't like the way my team ended up coming out of the draft.  Consistent performers, perhaps, but no real championship upside.  Until I picked up MJD.
6. Red-Not So PC-Skins -- Dominant running backs kept the ranking up, but really bad QB play and low-upside receiver options make this a bottom-five roster.
5. The Lady Macarthurs -- Excellent League-inspired team name, and decent roster.  No particularly impressive positions, but a solid all-around roster that should at least be competitive.
4. Bust a Kaep -- Didn't get its namesake, and therefore suffered at the highest-scoring position.  Excellent backs and receivers will carry this team, and maybe one of the QB's has a career year.
3. lustcheese -- Some nice value picks at QB and good receiver (and, yes, even tight end) depth should keep this team afloat, but I'm not sure I see the championship upside.
2. The Girl -- I taught her well. Excellent play at the two positions which will comprise the highest percentage of the team total most weeks will make my rankings calculation swoon.
1. Half in the Hand -- All-around above-average contributors everywhere but tight end make this the team to beat heading into the season.

The Ultimate No-Hitter

I know I haven't written much since baseball season got going, but something happened last night that gave me some inspiration.  As you might know, last night Reds pitcher Homer Bailey threw his second no-hitter in as many years.  I just barely caught the last out of the game on a live look-in on my phone because none of the eighteen ESPN channels was showing it.  In my haste to try to catch a bit of history, I drew the attention of my roommate, who has absolutely no interest in or knowledge of baseball.  He asked what was the big deal, and I said there was a no-hitter going on.  To which he responded something to the effect of, "Does that mean nobody hit a pitch?"

First of all, **sigh**.  I was raised in too baseball-centric a family to accept that kind of question.  Of course, I probably should have been less surprised since he famously asked when halftime was during a Phillies playoff game in '08 (man, do those days seem far off, huh).

But his question got me thinking -- what would it take for there to be an ACTUAL no-hitter?  No hits, no groundouts, no foul balls, no contact at all.  I knew it was essentially impossible, but I kind of wanted to see how impossible it really would be.  And, being the egotist I am, I'm going to share the experience with you.

My approach was to basically assume that everything about the game would be average, except that the batters would magically never hit a pitch they swung at.  This means that every plate appearance would either result in a strikeout or walk (let's leave the hit-by-pitch aside for this exercise, and it's rare enough that I feel OK doing it), additionally meaning that every plate appearance would last between 3 and 6 pitches.  To keep it classy, I'll just assume that that means that the average plate appearance takes up 4.5 pitches.

Given those assumptions, how many batters would the pitcher need to face if he had to complete a game with only walks and strikeouts?  Let's take the average rate of balls to strikes, and use a simple binomial probability distribution to estimate the probability of getting a walk (and, by extension, a strikeout) in this situation.  This season, there have been about 230,000 strikes and 130,000 balls thrown, but that's not the real ratio we would see in this situation.  We have to disregard foul balls, because players won't make contact in this game, and fouls increase the pitch count per at-bat beyond the maximum 6 if you don't make contact.  Other contact plays would just end up being swinging strikes that wouldn't mess up our expected rates.  I used the average rates of total swings, swings-and-misses, and balls in play to infer the number of foul balls to be about 66000, meaning that we would expect there to be about a 55/45 rate of strikes to balls.  Using a binomial distribution, I estimated the probability of getting 4 balls or more in an at-bat at 9.2%.

With that, we would expect about two walks over the 27 batters faced in a normal game, thus extending the game to 29 batters faced (yes, with 27 strikeouts -- your fantasy team would straight dominate).  With an average of 4.5 pitches per at-bat, that's an expected 131 pitches, which is actually not the most unreasonable amount (consider that everyone's boy Francisco Liriano threw a no-hitter with 8 walks and 149 pitches).

Of those 131 pitches, we would expect 55%, or 72 pitches, to be strikes.  The league average swing rate is 46%, and since that 46% must all be within that 55%, that means that the remaining strikes that weren't swung at would represent 9% of the total, or 12 pitches.  That leaves 60 pitches swung at and missed.  If the league average rate of contact on swings is 80%, that means that the odds of swinging and missing is 20%.  So, we could estimate the odds of swinging and missing at 60 pitches in a row at 0.2^60, or a daunting 1-in-1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.  In other words, don't expect the ultimate no-hitter any time soon.

Dom Brown and Out

O.M.G., the Phillies are finally back to .500!  Cole Hamels is back on track!  Cliff Lee is cruising!  And don't get me started on Dom Brown!

Wait, wait, wait, hold on a second.  Let's roll this back a bit.  One of those players is not like the others. One of those players is significantly younger and less proven.  One of those players has performed at a pace that is thoroughly unsustainable.  One of those players is Domonic Brown.

Now, before I sound like a downer, I do want to say that what Brown has done in the past few weeks has been absurd.  In his past 16 games (yes, beyond the 12 that everyone's been raving about), he has a special .381/.400/1.000 BA/OBP/SLG line with 11 HR, 15 R, 24 RBI, and 3 SB.  This streak has vaulted him to top ranks in MLB in home runs (2nd), RBI (9th), and slugging percentage (7th).  But I was listening to the radio the other day and people were calling in and saying that he would be batting .300 with 30 HR and 70 RBI by the All-Star Break.  That's ridiculous, and we all know it.

Here's why.

Well, first of all, he was hitting just .243/.282/.414 for the first 44 games of the year, and has 40% of his hits, 60% of his home runs, and 50% of his runs and RBI in just 27% of his games.  He had never had better than a .245 BA, .333 OBP, or .396 SLG in any of his previous seasons in the league (admittedly, less than a full season's worth).  So would you rather believe 16 games, or 140?

OK, let's get a little more sabermetric.  One strong indicator of luck is home-run-per-fly-ball-percentage (HR/FB%), or the percentage of fly balls that end up being home runs.  Given how small changes in contact angle off the bat can dramatically affect batted ball trajectory, there's a lot of potential randomness in how many of a player's fly balls become outs versus doubles versus homers.  While players generally have somewhat consistent HR/FB% over their careers (Ryan Howard has averaged about 28% while Jimmy Rollins has averaged 8%), there is also some variability that can occur around those averages (Howard has ranged between 21% and 39%, while Rollins has ranged between 4% and 11%).  Brown's previous three seasons' HR/FB% were 13.3, 9.4, and 9.8, but this year it's 31.6.  For reference, no one in the league has had a rate that high for an entire season since Howard himself in 2008.  Are you really willing to claim that Dom Brown went from almost-traded-for-Alfonso-Soriano to Ryan-Howard-in-his-prime in a third of a season?

Not that I feel like this is the biggest point, but it's also worth pointing out that while Brown never really got it going offensively in his previous years, he did at least have a decent eye at the plate, walking an above-average 10% of the time.  This year, he's walking half as much, and is striking out more, which does not portend continued success.  Just as indicative of his lack of patience is that he has increased his swing rate by 8% over his career average, which could hurt him once pitchers eventually figure out that fastballs just aren't going to cut it.  (Maybe a cutter will, eh?)

I would love to see Brown do well after all he's been through in the early stages of his career, but I'm not going to get carried away with the hyperbole.  I think he ends up with a line that looks something like .265/.330/.500 with 30 HR, 85 R, and 105 RBI, which would be almost an exact midpoint between Howard's 2010-11 seasons.  Yes, that's huge for our lineup in this day and age, but remember that those stats represent the "decline years" of Howard's career, and are in the form below average right fielder.