Frameshmania Year 6 Draft Review

OK, I’m going to apologize in advance to the ardent fans of this blog for the lack of dedication I am about to display.  Last season I did a 12-page draft review for the league for which I am commissioner, Frameshmania.  This year, I have a much busier schedule with work, so this is only going to be like 6.  And it will probably look a lot like the Mad Decent Jawnskies review I did last week, but with better teams, considering the format here: 8 teams, 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 Flex, meaning that 32 fewer players start in this league than in Jawnskies.

So in my other draft review I looked back at my previous review to see how I did, and it was ugly.  How about this league?

Team	Predicted	Actual
Hometown Mamas	1	5
Sabotage the League	2	6
Trophy Me Maybe	3	8
J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets	4	2
Hoosier Daddy	5	3
Salt Lake City Big Tymers	6	4
Detroit Football	7	1
DelCo's Side-Arm Stud	8	7
Correlation	-0.2619

Wow, I am just awful at this.

Let’s just get it over with.

Hoosier Daddy

1	Adrian Peterson, Min RB
2	Aaron Rodgers, GB QB
3	Steven Jackson, Atl RB
4	Andre Johnson, Hou WR
5	Vincent Jackson, TB WR
6	James Jones, GB WR
7	Tony Gonzalez, Atl TE
8	Rashard Mendenhall, Ari RB
9	DeSean Jackson, Phi WR
10	BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Cin RB
11	Tavon Austin, StL WR
12	Lance Moore, NO WR
13	Seahawks D/ST D/ST
14	Brandon Myers, NYG TE
15	Alshon Jeffery, Chi WR
16	Matt Prater, Den K

QB – 2nd: Hard to put the guy who takes Aaron Rodgers any lower than 2^nd, although I thought about it because as you’ll see, in a league this shallow, you can get some pretty impressive backup QB’s to insure your stud.

RB – 6th: It’s even harder to put a team that gets AP 6th at running back, but this is mostly a matter of depth.  After Steven Jackson, who I like as a #2, Mendenhall and BJGE are pretty uninspiring bench players given their plodding style.

WR – 4th: This is a weak 4th as far as I’m concerned, because while it’s clear that the lack of depth at RB is made up for in depth at WR, it’s a group with a lower “center of gravity” than other teams that have studs at the top.

TE – 4th: Gonzalez helped him to a regular-season surge early last season, so I get going back to the well.  Backing him up with Myers is a good enough insurance policy, but not enough to move above other teams at the position.

J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets

1	Arian Foster, Hou RB
2	A.J. Green, Cin WR
3	Drew Brees, NO QB
4	Jimmy Graham, NO TE
5	Reggie Bush, Det RB
6	Reggie Wayne, Ind WR
7	Marques Colston, NO WR
8	Mike Wallace, Mia WR
9	Daryl Richardson, StL RB
10	T.Y. Hilton, Ind WR
11	Ben Tate, Hou RB
12	Bryce Brown, Phi RB
13	Emmanuel Sanders, Pit WR
14	Bengals D/ST D/ST
15	Matt Bryant, Atl K
16	Eli Manning, NYG QB

QB – 1st: Brees was the #1 QB last season and gets his coach back, while Rodgers loses some weapons.  Easy to peg him first, and Eli as a backup is a decent enough lottery ticket given his past and offensive weapons.

RB – 7th: Matt loves him some Foster, so absent a better idea, he went with his standby, even though his output is likely to decline.  After that, though, he’s got two backups (albeit, one is Foster’s handcuff) and two guys who have question marks about their roles in Bush and Richardson.

WR – 3rd: Getting AJ Green at the top and then taking 4 WRs out of 5 picks in the middle rounds gives some nice depth, and the back end guys (Hilton and Sanders) have nice upside in former-Bruce-Arians offenses.  Not that that’s really a good thing.

TE – 1st: As I said for the Mad Decent Jawnskies draft: Jimmy Graham.  ‘Nuff said.

Salt Lake City Big Tymers (this guy)

1	Jamaal Charles, KC RB
2	Alfred Morris, Wsh RB
3	Dez Bryant, Dal WR
4	Chris Johnson, Ten RB
5	Roddy White, Atl WR
6	Danny Amendola, NE WR
7	Matt Ryan, Atl QB
8	Ryan Mathews, SD RB
9	Pierre Garcon, Wsh WR
10	Matthew Stafford, Det QB
11	Miles Austin, Dal WR
12	Anquan Boldin, SF WR
13	Greg Olsen, Car TE
14	Bernard Pierce, Bal RB
15	Patriots D/ST D/ST
16	Phil Dawson, SF K

QB – 6th: I can’t say I’m terribly happy with taking Ryan when I could have waited a couple rounds and ended up with a perfectly-acceptable Stafford and Romo, but I think it’s a nice pairing with some upside and a pretty high floor.  I wouldn’t be surprised that Stafford outplays Ryan either.

RB – 2nd: I got kind of screwed by having to pick between a billion guys at the third pick and taking a risk-reward guy in Charles, and then missed out on McCoy coming back around to me by one pick and ending up with Morris, who is fine, but unexciting.  Johnson and Mathews should be fine and are upside plays more than anything, and Pierce is just a guy to fill a spot.  This ranking is mostly about having three top-15 guys in my opinion.

WR – 1st: I feel WAY better about this crop, nabbing some excellent depth in Amendola, Garcon, and Austin behind top-12 guys Bryant and White.  Plus, if I’m not going to end up with my boy Romo I might as well get his receivers.

TE – 8th: I’m all about waiting on tight end, and it’s pretty sweet to be in an 8-team league and get a consensus top-6 tight end (who finished there last year) in the 13th round.  Still, it’s an 8 team league, so plenty of other good options went before him.

Sabotage the League

1	Ray Rice, Bal RB
2	LeSean McCoy, Phi RB
3	Matt Forte, Chi RB
4	Larry Fitzgerald, Ari WR
5	DeMarco Murray, Dal RB
6	Dwayne Bowe, KC WR
7	Colin Kaepernick, SF QB
8	Antonio Brown, Pit WR
9	DeAngelo Williams, Car RB
10	Antonio Gates, SD TE
11	49ers D/ST D/ST
12	Percy Harvin*, Sea WR
13	Owen Daniels, Hou TE
14	Josh Gordon, Cle WR
15	Randy Bullock, Hou K
16	Michael Vick, Phi QB

QB – 7th: Two back-end-of-the-draft running quarterbacks definitely have upside, but it’s an 8-team league, so if you are the last to draft a quarterback, you can’t be ranked that high.  That being said, I like the upside of both of these guys quite a bit, and having both of them gives a better chance one of them ends up doing well.

RB – 1st: By far the best single position in the draft in my opinion, Phil got lucky in having McCoy and Forte fall to him at 13 and 20, respectively, and having all five running backs be essentially unquestioned starters is a huge advantage.

WR – 6th: Phil stole Dwayne Bowe right out from under my nose as his second (would have been my third) receiver, and while I like his top 3 fine, drafting Percy Harvin at all is a major downgrade for his depth.

TE – 5th: Gates and Daniels are just so boring at this point in their careers, I can’t rank them too highly.  Phil claims he hears all sorts of raving about Gates this year, but haven’t we heard that before?  Like last year?

I Don’t Give an Andrew Luck

1	Marshawn Lynch, Sea RB
2	David Wilson, NYG RB
3	Julio Jones, Atl WR
4	Demaryius Thomas, Den WR
5	Andrew Luck, Ind QB
6	Darren Sproles, NO RB
7	Montee Ball, Den RB
8	Vernon Davis, SF TE
9	Torrey Smith, Bal WR
10	Greg Jennings, Min WR
11	Vick Ballard, Ind RB
12	Mark Ingram, NO RB
13	Andy Dalton, Cin QB
14	Denarius Moore, Oak WR
15	Blair Walsh, Min K
16	Steelers D/ST D/ST

QB – 8th: I could have given a higher rank just for making sure to draft the team’s namesake, but I don’t think that Luck is a viable starter in a league this shallow, and I’m not even sure Dalton is worth rostering in this format.

RB – 8th: This ranking is mostly about taking David Wilson ahead of at least 4 guys I think are definitely ahead of him (McCoy, Morris, Jackson, Forte), which allowed some other teams to build up much better RB groups.  The rest of the roster has good enough depth, but this is really about not having confidence outside of Lynch.

WR – 5th: Definitely one of the top starting duos in the league here, but waiting another 4 rounds to take another receiver limits the depth here.  I do actually like Smith and Jennings, but with the quarterback situation in Oakland, I think there are much better fliers at the back end than Moore.

TE – 6th: As a Davis owner at the end of last year, I have a special dark place in hell reserved for him, but he’s fine as one of the earlier tight ends off the board.  However, he’s not better enough to rank him alone above teams with pairs of similar guys.

Hometown Mamas

1	Doug Martin, TB RB
2	Calvin Johnson, Det WR
3	Peyton Manning, Den QB
4	Frank Gore, SF RB
5	Wes Welker, Den WR
6	Eddie Lacy, GB RB
7	Rob Gronkowski*, NE TE
8	Jordy Nelson, GB WR
9	Giovani Bernard, Cin RB
10	Cecil Shorts, Jac WR
11	Shane Vereen, NE RB
12	Tony Romo, Dal QB
13	Jordan Cameron, Cle TE
14	Chris Givens, StL WR
15	Texans D/ST D/ST
16	Sebastian Janikowski, Oak K

QB – 4th: I have Manning as my third QB, so you’d think that team would be third, but having Romo as a backup compared to, let’s say hypothetically, Cam Newton, makes this a pretty top-level #4 ranking.

RB – 5th: Martin is certainly a nice pick at 6, but even with the security of Gore and the upside of Lacy and Bernard, I feel kind of sketchy about the depth here.  This is similarly a pretty high #5 (I actually had 3rd as I was writing this, but didn’t feel great about it.

WR – 2nd: Megatron at the top is obviously a big deal, but I really like Nelson, Shorts, and Givens as backups to the consistent performers she has starting.  There’s definitely some questions about the health/role of a couple guys, but this is a strong top-to-bottom unit.

TE – 2nd: There was a discussion during the draft about whether Gronk should be paired with his backup Zach Sudfeld, but I think having Cameron is just as good of a pick there.  Regardless, reports indicate that we could see Gronk back around Week 4, at which point he’s definitely a top-2 option.

DelCo’s Side-Arm Stud

1	Trent Richardson, Cle RB
2	C.J. Spiller, Buf RB
3	Brandon Marshall, Chi WR
4	Tom Brady, NE QB
5	Darren McFadden, Oak RB
6	Cam Newton, Car QB
7	Lamar Miller, Mia RB
8	Jason Witten, Dal TE
9	Hakeem Nicks, NYG WR
10	Eric Decker, Den WR
11	Andre Brown, NYG RB
12	Le'Veon Bell, Pit RB
13	Kenny Britt, Ten WR
14	Zach Sudfeld, NE TE
15	Stephen Gostkowski, NE K
16	Broncos D/ST D/ST

QB – 3rd: A pairing that you’re only going to see in leagues this shallow, this is kind of a ridiculous situation.  Obviously there’s major trade opportunities here if the season develops the right way, but even then, a possible down year from either gives almost no risk.

RB – 4th: Arguably the second-best starting pairing in the league, Richardson and Spiller make this ranking, because I’m now totally off the Darren McFadden bandwagon and have no confidence in Lamar Miller (oh, and Le’Veon Bell is kinda injured).  There is some upside in the backups, but the starters are the kicker here (and I would expect nothing less of Mr. RB-RB himself).

WR – 8th: A classic Kyle move, he took Marshall and then waited 5 rounds to fill out the rest of his receivers.  He’s confident that he’ll have the chance to pick up a top option that appears on the waiver wire, so hopefully for his sake he doesn’t get stuck depending on walking band-aids Nicks and Britt and fighting-for-targets Decker.

TE – 3rd: Speaking of Sudfeld, he’s much better served as a Gronk handcuff because his role will likely be reduced by the time you would want to start him over Witten, but still it’s hard to argue the upside is worth it, and Witten’s as safe as they come.

Trophy Me Maybe

1	Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac RB
2	Stevan Ridley, NE RB
3	Robert Griffin III, Wsh QB
4	Victor Cruz, NYG WR
5	Chris Ivory, NYJ RB
6	Randall Cobb, GB WR
7	Russell Wilson, Sea QB
8	Ahmad Bradshaw, Ind RB
9	Steve Smith, Car WR
10	Sidney Rice, Sea WR
11	Steve Johnson, Buf WR
12	Kyle Rudolph, Min TE
13	Mike Williams, TB WR
14	Knowshon Moreno, Den RB
15	Justin Tucker, Bal K
16	Bears D/ST D/ST

QB – 5th: RGIII was definitely a reach as the 4th quarterback off the board (considering the team above got two higher-ranked QB’s later on), but pairing him with Wilson is a really intriguing combo, a higher-end version of KaeperVick.

RB – 3rd: MJD and Ridley were also slight reaches with Spiller, McCoy, and Morris (and if you like him enough, Jackson) still on the board, but I do like both guys this year.  I also think that Ivory and Bradshaw are interesting later-round starting backs, and Moreno is as good a flier as anyone at that point given his previous success in Denver.

WR – 7th: Again, I don’t mind Cruz, but I wouldn’t be taking him over all of Thomas, Fitzgerald, Johnson, Jackson, and White.  Cobb is just fine as a #2 and I love Smith as a later receiver, but Rice and Johnson just don’t have the offense/QB situation to make much of an impact.

TE – 7th: Rudolph has been somewhat overdrafted this year, but getting him in the 12th is just fine, and I think he will be more consistent this year than last.  It’s still an 8-team league, though, so I can’t be too impressed.

The Verdict

8. I Don’t Give an Andrew Luck – Reaches at RB/QB don’t make me confident.

7. Trophy Me Maybe – Some early reaches at QB/RB but made up later at those positions while not getting much better at others.

6. DelCo’s Side-Arm Stud – As always shallow at WR, but not as good at RB as usual in a year that rewards loading up more than most.

5. Hoosier Daddy – Rodgers and Peterson keep the floor high, but not much depth behind.

4. Sabotage the League – Stole a bunch of guys right out from under me (McCoy, Bowe, Fitz) but there isn’t much at QB/WR after loading up on RBs.

3. J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets – He told me to just sign him up for first place now.  So, what happens when you let the most important position be your worst?

2. Hometown Mamas – I always seem to like my mother’s teams after the draft, and this is a balanced roster with some nice guys at the top of each position.

1. Salt Lake City Big Tymers – I’m not sure how I even gave myself this ranking, but I guess it’s about my loading up at RB/WR working out in my eyes.  But we’ve seen how my predictions go, so maybe I should have fudged the numbers a bit.