A Midseason Night's NFL Review

Boo!

OK, Halloween's out of the way.

This post was partially written Monday night before I lost power due to Hurricane Sandy, and partially during our power outage on my computer offline.  So take that into account.

Seeing as I’m likely to be out of power at any minute now, I’d like to take this opportunity to write a post that doesn’t really require any research (read: Internet access).  I’ve downloaded my preseason predictions for each division and the current standings in the NFL, and we’ll have a grand old time seeing how wackdiculous this season has been.

AFC EAST

	Prediction	Actual
Patriots	13-3	5-3
Dolphins	3-13	4-3
Bills	7-9	3-4
Jets	6-10	3-5

I guess I might have been a bit wrong about the Dolphins.  I don’t think most people expected much from them with a rookie quarterback, Reggie Bush as the starter, and Brian Hartline as the top receiver, but Tannehill has exceeded expectations and the defense has been very good.  The Patriots, on the other hand, have been out of sorts offensively at times, while splashing in dominant performances like this past Sunday’s.

AFC NORTH

	Prediction	Actual
Ravens	12-4	5-2
Steelers	10-6	4-3
Bengals	8-8	3-4
Browns	3-13	2-6

The Ravens have been somewhat inconsistent but still good enough to keep my prediction attainable, while the Browns would have to go 1-7 the rest of the way to fulfill my prediction, thanks to a more acceptable offense than expected.  The Steelers and Bengals have been right in line with my expectations, which gives me a warm fuzzy feeling inside.

AFC SOUTH

	Prediction	Actual
Texans	10-6	6-1
Colts	5-11	4-3
Titans	9-7	3-5
Jaguars	5-11	1-6

The Texans have been dominant for most of the season, exceeding my expectations, which were tempered due to my not being convinced that their defense would be just as dominant as last year.  The Colts have looked much better than I thought given how awful they were last year, so I guess a legitimate NFL quarterback cures a lot of ills.  I gave the Jags 5 wins because they always seem to win more games than they should despite being terrible, but it turns out they’re just terrible this year.

AFC WEST

	Prediction	Actual
Broncos	10-6	4-3
Chargers	9-7	3-4
Raiders	7-9	3-4
Chiefs	8-8	1-6

Peyton Manning has outperformed everyone’s expectations thus far, but the defense has been inconsistent and the Broncos’ record reflects that.  The Chiefs have been abysmal, having a lead for a total of zero minutes in regulation all season despite having some really good pieces on both sides of the ball.  The Chargers and Raiders are perfectly mediocre, as most people expected of them.

NFC EAST

	Prediction	Actual
Giants	8-8	6-2
Eagles	10-6	3-4
Cowboys	7-9	3-4
Redskins	6-10	3-5

The Giants have started strong like they usually do, but this is exactly the time of year where they go into a lull.  Speaking of lulls, somehow the Eagles are still in second place in the division after looking awful for the past three weeks.  That’s because the Cowboys are similarly bad, and the Redskins just can’t stop anyone defensively.  This is actually one of my more accurate divisions, but that makes sense given that it’s the division I have the most stake in.

NFC NORTH

	Prediction	Actual
Bears	9-7	6-1
Vikings	3-13	5-3
Packers	13-3	5-3
Lions	9-7	3-4

The Bears have ridden a ridiculously turnover-producing defense and a better-than-usual-but-still-not-great offense to a very strong start that I didn’t see coming, while the Vikings have already won two more games than I thought they’d win all season (definitely my worst prediction) thanks to a very improved defense.  The Packers have picked up the pace of late, but started too slow for me to be right about them, while the Lions have regressed a little bit more than I expected.

NFC SOUTH

	Prediction	Actual
Falcons	12-4	7-0
Buccaneers	7-9	3-4
Saints	10-6	2-5
Panthers	7-9	1-6

The Falcons have obviously started very strong, and mostly on the strength of an improved defense.  The Saints fell off a cliff early in the year and will have trouble digging themselves out, but not many people would have seen Sean Payton’s absence make that much of a difference.  The Panthers and Bucs have switched places since 2011, with Tampa Bay being the explosive offense and Carolina being the struggling mess.

NFC WEST

	Prediction	Actual
49ers	10-6	6-2
Cardinals	7-9	4-4
Seahawks	7-9	4-4
Rams	6-10	3-5

The Niners have continued their roll from last year and in all likelihood will win at least two more games than I predicted, while the rest of the division could easily end up right where I predicted them to be.  When you predict middle-of-the-road records it’s hard to be very wrong, but still I feel pretty good about my predictions for this division.

Here are my updated predictions for the playoff teams in both conferences:

AFC	NFC
Texans	Falcons
Ravens	Bears
Patriots	49ers
Broncos	Giants
Steelers	Packers
Colts	Buccaneers