Hi everyone! I briefly thought about only sending this out in the league e-mail, but it ended up getting long enough that it would have been three parts, and I do kind of like having an archive on my blog. So here we are, diluting my personal sports writing portfolio with this frivolity.
We'll start with the first six rounds. That's where the meat of your roster comes from, where the inevitable busts make you want to die. Typically teams find maybe 4 or 5 RB/WR and a QB or TE, but you might be interested to know that the eleven previous teams who waited on both QB and TE average more points and have a higher seasonal scoring floor, and they have earned seven "trophies" (scoring title, best record, champion). Those eleven teams include myself five times, and eight of those teams came in the last three years.
Then we'll tackle the rest of the draft. After the sixth round you get people taking more wonky picks but also more memorable ones. 71% of the best fantasy performances of the last 9 seasons (100 points above the replacement level at the position) came from guys drafted in the first six rounds. Remember, that's only 6 rounds compared to 10 later rounds and any pickups, so you're just not that likely to get a super-stud late. But only 54% of the very good performances in the last 9 years (50-99 points above replacement) came from the early rounds. So that's what we're watching for with the later picks.
Let's get to this year's squads.
Salt Lake City Big Tymers (Alex)
Top 6 Rounds:
Not my typical squad this year, except for the lack of QB and TE. A couple of the Eagles' division rivals (Elliott and Beckham), some risky RBs (Ajayi, Lynch). Should be a very good WR group if Luck is healthy, though (Beckham, Adams, Hilton). Will be very dependent on how the Cowboys' offensive line injuries affect Zeke and whether Ajayi and Lynch can stay healthy and productive.
Rank: 6
Bottom 10 Rounds:
Those who were in the Frameshman house for the draft know the extent of my exasperation at people taking my QB and TE preferences. Rivers/Mariota and Rudolph are pretty satisfactory starters in most leagues, but in an eight team league that's probably not championship caliber. I just missed the record for latest starting QB taken, as Jesse took Winston 2 picks later last year. Beyond that it's dart throws in Josh Gordon and Kerryon Johnson and a late-season boost / backup plan in Julian Edelman.
Rank: 3
Hometown Mamas (Laurie)
Top 6 Rounds:
Laurie went back to the Cook well after he tantalized her last year, and she doubled her pleasure with Diggs in the fifth. Can't go wrong with Gurley at the top of the roster, but I think it might have been just a tad early for Ertz. Generally just a solid WR group with Allen, Diggs, and Fitz, assuming the QB situation in Arizona stays stable.
Rank: 1
Bottom 10 Rounds:
Russell Wilson at 79 seems like a huge steal. Add to that some interesting deep receiver choices in Goodwin and Doctson and this is an intriguing crop. I expect Miller and Sanders to be solid-if-unspectacular flex/bench guys which is exactly what you want out of those spots in the draft. The Duke Johnson and Tarik Cohen picks seem a little redundant and low on upside, but the rest looks good.
Rank: 2
Peyton Manningless (Phil)
Top 6 Rounds:
Solid picks through the first three rounds for Phil (David Johnson, Michael Thomas, AJ Green), but Henry, Drake, and Davis to follow that up give me a bit of the willies. I suppose with a solid top three to work with you can play around a bit, but this feels like a 4-6 group with a wide range of outcomes.
Rank: 3
Bottom 10 Rounds:
You know I'm not giving you a good grade if you take a defense in the 9th round. That said, only three teams have taken a defense that early, and two of them went on to go 9-4 or better. Of course, one of those was Domino's super-wonky 2012 draft, in which he took five Lions, three QBs (two in the first 6 rounds), two TEs, two defenses, and two kickers. Where was I? Oh, I like the Aaron Jones, Carlos Hyde, Isaiah Crowell, and Trey Burton dart throws, so this is probably a fine bench.
Rank: 4
I'm Just Here So I Won't Win (Jon-Michael)
Top 6 Rounds:
Generally I like what JM did here. He's got a lot of possible risk with Evans missing a QB for a month, Wentz probably starting on the shelf, and McCoy possibly being suspended. But Julio, Gordon, and Hill all have legit shots at being top 5 guys at their positions and have shown it before, and if the aforementioned concerns don't manifest as much as they could, this could be a very solid group.
Rank: 2
Bottom 10 Rounds:
Probably a little heavy on the Eagles at the end there (Foles + Wallace + K) but there's some nice choices here. JuJu might have been a little bit of a reach in the 7th and Thompson probably won't repeat his performance from early last season, but I like the Lewis and Carson options off the bench and Engram is a solid mid-round TE to go with.
Rank: 5
J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets (Matt)
Top 6 Rounds:
I don't know, man. When your top three receivers (Hopkins, Cooper, Robinson) have all put up disappointing seasons within the last two years, there's a lot of downside to avoid. Add to that a rookie running back (Barkley) and another two with uncertain durability with a higher workload (McCaffrey, McKinnon), and it's a real boom-or-bust team for Matt. The only guys I'm really concerned with are McKinnon and Robinson, but I wouldn't be surprised if this goes very poorly.
Rank: 7
Bottom 10 Rounds:
Matt almost always takes a QB early, and if you just looked at the name of the guy you would have thought he did it again this year. Brees had never been drafted later than 57 and only twice later than 26 and Matt got him at 76. I really like the value on Funchess and Walker, and while I'm not personally so excited about Njoku and Mack, there are others who are, so that could be fine. To me this all hinges on how great the Saints are, and especially how balanced their run/pass ratio is close to the end zone. If Brees can get back up to 30-35 TDs Matt's a real factor.
Rank: 1
DelCo's Side-Arm Stud (Kyle)
Top 6 Rounds:
Kyle was back at his usual grind of loading up at RB early with Kamara, Fournette, and Mixon, three young guys who have a pretty good shot of finishing in the top 12 at the position (albeit with some role / offense concerns). Cooks and Baldwin feel like possibly risky starting WRs this year, but they were both top-12 guys last year. Rodgers is Rodgers.
Rank: 4
Bottom 10 Rounds:
Kyle was one of the teams exhausting the QB pool to my chagrin. But I will get my just desserts. Remember that wonky Domino draft? He was one of only seven teams ever to take 3 QBs, which Kyle did here. Only two of those seven had a winning record and only two scored above average for the season. Oddly, there were three such teams in 2009? What happened? Anyway, Kyle took some serious risks with injuries to Jeffery and Penny and job security problems for Cobb and Montgomery. Not sure there. Olsen is solid at least.
Rank: 8
Hoosier Daddy (Jesse)
Top 6 Rounds:
Jesse's season hinges on Patrick Mahomes being a serviceable quarterback in Kansas City, albeit to a lesser extent because he has the safety valves Hunt and Kelce) and not the downfield guys. Having solid guys in Brown and Howard helps balance that. I don't see a lot of upside in Tate in the fifth, but that safety counters Royce Freeman's risk, as he's a rookie back on a team who hasn't had a good offense in a couple years and just added a new quarterback.
Rank: 8
Bottom 10 Rounds:
Watson/Stafford provides a good balance of stability and upside at QB, in the same way that Landry/Fuller does at WR. Although I think the upside on both Watson and Fuller, who are obviously tied to each other, isn't as high as most think. Burkhead and Jones are likely to be fine fill-in options but maybe not league-winners, which is kind of how Agholor and Anderson are, but I like the latter two better just by virtue of being later picks. The Rams D is good, so that's cool.
Rank: 6
Purrfect Picks (Rachel)
Top 6 Rounds:
Cat puns and the first pick. Interesting way to enter the league. Bell / Gronk / Freeman is a very solid start, and it feels unlikely that Brady or Thielen bust in any major way. Collins could be a one-year-wonder at RB, especially in a sub-par offense, but that's kind of what you get in 6th-rounders. Rachel did well not to go totally off the reservation early, as other Frameshmania first-timers have done.
Rank: 5
Bottom 10 Rounds:
Well we know someone's a homer. Rachel becomes the second person to ever take five players from the same team, tying... you guessed it, Domino. I also have to harp on the Gostkowski pick at 96, because kickers. The first kicker was drafted before the 14th round every year up to 2013, after which it had only happened once since. I was surprised to see Gostkowski's been that first kicker only three times prior. Rachel solidified her WR group early in these rounds and then took some interesting guys in Michel and Williams and some likely useless players in Luck, Reed, and Decker (the first two because of Brady and Gronk and the last because he's probably cooked).
Rank: 7
So what do we end up with? Here's how I have things shaking out.
1) Laurie
2) Phil
3) Jon-Michael
4) Kyle
5) Matt
6) Alex
7) Rachel
8) Jesse
For reference, I picked Phil to win last year and he did. Of course, I picked Matt for 7th and he finished 2nd. The year before I correctly predicted Matt tanking but was way wrong on Jon-Michael and Emily. So essentially none of this matters and we're just rolling dice. Good use of two hours of my life to write this, I think.
