AFC EAST
| ||||
2012 Predicted
|
2012 Actual
|
Difference
|
2013 Predicted
| |
Patriots
|
13-3
|
12-4
|
-1
|
11-5
|
Dolphins
|
3-13
|
7-9
|
4
|
7-9
|
Jets
|
6-10
|
6-10
|
0
|
5-12
|
Bills
|
7-9
|
6-10
|
-1
|
5-12
|
I was pretty accurate with this division last season with the exception of my underestimating Ryan Tannehill, Reggie Bush, and the Dolphins' D. The Patriots lost a couple offensive weapons (and that doesn't include the guns Aaron Hernandez used to have), but their defense has improved over the past couple years and there's always Brady. The Dolphins should be passable offensively and defensively, but I don't have enough confidence in Tannehill or Lamar Miller to put them higher. The Jets won't be as bad as you would think, especially if Chris Ivory does what I think he can do and New York's most eligible Butt-Fumbler gets back under center (yes, I do actually think he's their best option). The Bills have some serious quarterback and defense problems, and I'm not sure they will get out of CJ Spiller what everyone thinks they will after his breakout last year.
AFC NORTH
| ||||
2012 Predicted
|
2012 Actual
|
Difference
|
2013 Predicted
| |
Ravens
|
12-4
|
10-6
|
-2
|
9-7
|
Bengals
|
8-8
|
10-6
|
2
|
10-6
|
Steelers
|
10-6
|
8-8
|
-2
|
9-7
|
Browns
|
3-13
| 5-11 |
2
|
7-9
|
I was 2 games off on all the teams in this division last year, which meant it was much more tightly bunched than I expected. I have adjusted expectations this time around, predicting the top 3 teams to end up within 1 game of each other. I think the Ravens weren't really that good last year and should be worse offensively, while the Steelers are already experiencing backfield issues and no longer have James Harrison. There seems to be a lot of optimism around the Browns this preseason, and I'm buying it to some extent. Their second-year QB/RB/WR combo could come into their own, and their defense was underrated last season, but they are still likely to be the worst team in this division so I can't expect much from them.
AFC SOUTH
| ||||
2012 Predicted
|
2012 Actual
|
Difference
|
2012 Predicted
| |
Texans
|
10-6
|
12-4
|
2
|
11-5
|
Colts
|
5-11
|
11-5
|
6
|
9-7
|
Titans
| 9-7 |
6-10
|
-3
|
6-10
|
Jaguars
|
5-11
|
2-14
|
-3
|
6-10
|
The Colts were (retrospectively) unsurprisingly the biggest positive surprise based on my expectations, while my optimism about the Titans' and Jaguars' progress was not rewarded. I also expected the Texans to regress slightly, and while there were chinks in their defensive armor, the offense was as good as it's been in recent years. I still expect Houston to be tops in the division, partially because I expect the league to catch up to the Colts a bit after their emotional run last season. The Titans tried very hard to improve their offensive line, and that should help Jake Locker get comfortable and Chris Johnson get more room, but their defense needs to improve for them to go anywhere. There's similar optimism about the Jags' offense as with the Browns, but I have less confidence in Blaine Gabbert and the Jags' defense for whatever reason.
AFC WEST
| ||||
2012 Predicted
|
2012 Actual
|
Difference
|
2012 Predicted
| |
Broncos
|
10-6
|
13-3
|
3
|
12-4
|
Chargers
|
9-7
|
7-9
|
-2
|
7-9
|
Raiders
|
7-9
|
4-12
|
-3
|
3-13
|
Chiefs
|
8-8
|
2-14
|
-6
|
8-8
|
The Broncos did even better than I expected last year thanks to an excellent defense and a better-than-expected Peyton Manning, while the rest of the division languished in mediocrity at best. The Chiefs were especially disappointing despite Jamaal Charles' excellent season, and I expect them to get back on the horse this season with their new average quarterback and, odd as it is to say, Andy Reid at the helm. The Raiders have no quarterback, no offensive line, and no defense, and should be the doormat of the AFC in the coming year. The Chargers will be good enough to beat decent teams, but bad enough to lose to bad teams, and will just sort of be there until something happens with Philip Rivers one way or the other. I expect the Broncos' defense to regress with Bailey and Miller out for a bit and Dumervil over in Baltimore, but their offense should be even more explosive with the additions of Wes Welker and Julius Thomas.
NFC EAST
| ||||
2012 Predicted
|
2012 Actual
|
Difference
|
2013 Predicted
| |
Redskins
|
6-10
|
10-6
|
4
|
8-8
|
Giants
|
8-8
|
9-7
|
1
|
8-8
|
Cowboys
|
7-9
|
8-8
|
1
|
9-7
|
Eagles
|
10-6
|
4-12
|
-6
|
6-10
|
The Redskins joined the Colts as surprising teams thanks to their top-2 rookie QBs, while the Eagles massively disappointed after an equivalently disappointing 2012, and that caused the aforementioned Reid to be ousted. I think Chip Kelly's offense will help things, but it's not as revolutionary as people think it will be (the Patriots are basically already using it, but they have Tom Brady), and that defense is going to be brutal. The 'Skins are going to have to cut back on RGIII's run options, which will reduce the effectiveness of the offense even without considering that he might be limited by his injury. The Giants are already banged up and out of sync offensively, but they always manage to be competitive. I don't feel at all confident in this given their history and the division's, but I think the Cowboys' offense is going to really shine if they can get anything useful from the running game that was way below average last season.
NFC NORTH
| ||||
2012 Predicted
|
2012 Actual
|
Difference
|
2013 Predicted
| |
Packers
|
13-3
|
11-5
|
-2
|
11-5
|
Vikings
|
3-13
|
10-6
|
7
|
6-10
|
Bears
|
9-7
|
10-6
|
1
|
9-7
|
Lions
|
9-7
|
4-12
|
-5
|
7-9
|
It's hard for a team not to overachieve when they have a guy rush for 2000 yards, but with P. Harv's abbreviated breakout and Christian Ponder's not-messing-it-up-too-much, the Vikings really had a surprising year. At the same time, the Lions' offense had a lot of red zone issues and the defensive line wasn't as disruptive as Ndamukong Suh would lead you to believe, so they fell of the cliff. The Packers regressed a bit last season thanks to their defense and lack of running game, and while they should be able to run the ball with Lacy added, they've lost some passing weapons, a left tackle, and Charles Woodson. The Bears are going to be good enough offensively and defensively to be competitive, but I don't see them making the playoffs if their defense isn't as opportunistic as last season.
NFC SOUTH
| ||||
2012 Predicted
|
2012 Actual
|
Difference
|
2013 Predicted
| |
Falcons
|
12-4
|
13-3
|
1
|
11-5
|
Saints
|
10-6
|
7-9
|
-3
|
10-6
|
Buccaneers
|
7-9
|
7-9
|
0
|
7-9
|
Panthers
|
7-9
|
7-9
|
0
|
6-10
|
I was really good at picking this division last year, although I didn't expect the Saints' loss of Sean Payton for the year to have as much of an impact as it did. That said, he's back and is probably mad, so they could have an '07 Patriots kind of vindictive approach offensively that gets them right back on the horse. The Falcons probably hit their peak last year, so I expect them to decline a bit, especially if the Saints are back in business. The Bucs had a great start and then fell off towards the end of last year, and while I think Freeman isn't likely to improve any, the defensive backfield and offensive line are going to be better, so this 7-9 mark may be an underestimate. The Panthers just don't seem to have enough weapons offensively to optimize Cam Newton, and their defense still leaves something to be desired, so I can't see them getting out of the cellar in this division.
NFC WEST
| ||||
2012 Predicted
|
2012 Actual
|
Difference
|
2013 Predicted
| |
49ers
|
10-6
| 11-4-1 |
1.5
|
10-6
|
Seahawks
|
7-9
|
11-5
|
4
|
10-6
|
Rams
|
6-10
|
7-8-1
|
1.5
|
8-8
|
Cardinals
|
7-9
|
5-11
|
-2
|
7-9
|
It's hard to believe that three years ago the winner of this division was 7-9, and this year I'm picking the loser to be 7-9. The Seahawks were the third team to really overachieve with a rookie QB, while the 49ers continued their dominance despite switching quarterbacks midseason. I expect both quarterbacks to be figured out a bit (probably Wilson more than Kaepernick because I trust Kaep's arm more), but those defenses are solid. Also, the Rams' new offensive weapons and the Cardinals' actually professional quarterback should make the bottom half of the division more competitive and keep the top half less dominant.
So how would the playoffs look if my word were law?
AFC
|
NFC
|
Patriots
|
Packers
|
Bengals
|
Falcons
|
Texans
|
Cowboys
|
Broncos
|
49ers
|
Colts
|
Seahawks
|
Ravens
|
Saints
|
That's actually a significantly-below-average amount of turnover for playoff teams (only the Cowboys and Saints would represent new teams from last year), but I feel like the new super-special-awesome young quarterbacks have provided a stability in the upper-middle-class that wasn't there in previous years. I think the Bengals and Colts are the most vulnerable of the remaining teams that made it last year due to competition in the division and some potential regression at the QB position, but I really don't feel at all confident in taking any of the middle-tier teams in the AFC to make a jump. Especially not the Jets, in case you were wondering.
