2013 Phillies Post-Mortem

Well, for the second year in a row, we Phillies fans have the opportunity to watch the playoffs knowing that our team had no shot of being involved.  Another year of moderate optimism (and, in the case of my step-dad, delusional optimism -- he predicted 100 wins!) resulted in another year of injury woes and disappointment.  I spent a fair amount of time before the season creating a projection for the team, and if you don't mind, my review of the season will re-assess those predictions.  You can see the whole thing here.

And he's rounding first...

OK, that's probably the wrong sport.

Wow, what a busy couple months.  I can’t believe I used to write twoposts a week during football season! ‘Twas a different time. Well, now that I have a little respite, I guess the quarter-pole of theNFL season is a good time to take stock of where we are.  And after my recent trip to Denver tointrospect and seek serenity in the mountains (read: watch the Eagles bend overand take it from the Broncos), I think I’m in the mental state to take a stepback and review the landscape of the league.  Usually I do somae kind of division-by-division thing, but Ithink I’ll go for a little power ranking thing.  My blog, my show. Good stuff, let’s do this.

32. Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4) – Nothing really to say here.  Either quarterback is terrible, MJD wasalready struggling behind a now-shallower offensive line, and they keep losingme bets when I take them as massive underdogs!  I’m losing more and more confidence in my investments inJustin Blackmon and MJD fantasy-wise.

31. Pittsburgh Steelers (0-4) – They’ve had a terrible offensiveline for a few years now, but this is awful.  The defense has fallen to average, which they can’t recoverfrom given the offensive inconsistency. Le’Veon Bell should help give a little life at RB, but I don’t thinkhe’s some kind of miracle cure.  Istill believe that they’ll finish closer to 20th than 30th, because theiroffense will be good enough.

30. New York Giants (0-4) – Similar to the Steelers, the offensiveline is offensive, and they have less than no running game (which Eli has dealtwith before, but not thrived in). They just dropped another running back, which gives David Wilson moreopportunities to fumble.  Good forthem that they get a chance to get healthy against the god-awful Eagles D.

29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-4) – I definitely invested far too muchin this passing game in fantasy, owning both Mike Williams and VincentJackson.  The quarterback situationis not very good, but the talent surrounding that position and the soliddefense should allow them to bounce back over some teams with better records.

28. Oakland Raiders (1-3)—Terrelle Pryor at least makes themrelevant because of the threat of offense, but there’s a lot of inconsistencythat comes with that.  But, as aDarren McFadden owner, I have to hope they both stay on the field.  The defense is its usual sieve, and theimproved division could make this a 3-13 team easily.

27. Arizona Cardinals (2-2)—A team I thought would be more  potent offensively because they focusedon the O-line in the offseason, they’ve already had injuries and horr-terri-badbackfield production that make the passing game lose its effectiveness.  The defense is decent, but I don’t seethe situation getting better regardless of the Andre Ellington hype.

26. Washington Redskins (1-3) – RGIII is coming back into formslowly, and the running game and Pierre Garcon are solid, but the defense ispretty bad (the Eagles offense has lost a lot of its credibility since theyplayed Week 1), and there isn’t much explosiveness in the offense to competewith top-level offenses.

25. Buffalo Bills (2-2) – EJ Manuel hasn’t been as effectivethrowing or running as I thought he’d be (as a multiple fantasy team owner),and neither has CJ Spiller, who I expected to disappoint but not thismuch.  The defense has improvedsubstantially (although the reference point was terrible), so they’ve been ableto stay in games.

24. Minnesota Vikings (1-3) – Sure, AP is a beast, but the QBsituation is still terrible and the defense is mediocre.  However, they do have one elite aspectof their team, which can win them any game if the QB doesn’t lose it.  I should probably have them lower,however.

23. St. Louis Rams (1-3) -- Sam Bradford hasn't taken advantage of the added weaponry like we thought, but the lack of a running game and some less-than-creative use of speedster Tavon Austin has put a lower ceiling on his season.  The defense is still pretty good, at least up front, but the offense hasn't improved enough to make any noise.

22. Philadelphia Eagles (1-3) -- The offense has not been as-advertised, really only clicking in a lopsided affair against the Redskins.  The defense looks just as bad as last year (playing Peyton in Denver doesn't help), so there needs to be more consistent production out of the passing game than we've seen.  I still think that Nick Foles might be the best shot this offense has at solid production all year long.

21. New York Jets (2-2) -- I can't imagine the Jets doing any better had Mark Sanchez stayed healthy, so it's nice to see them get a look at Geno Smith.  The defense seems to be close to its form from a couple seasons ago, and if they could just keep their skill position players healthy, maybe they could challenge an above-.500 record.

20. Cleveland Browns (2-2) -- Sure, trade your best player and sit your first-round quarterback, and win two straight games!  The defense is legit, and if Brian Hoyer can keep up this pace without a running game (or at least one with an off-the-couch Willis McGahee), they could actually compete in a surprisingly-down AFC North.

19. Carolina Panthers (1-2) -- Cam is still a bit up-and-down, but DeAngelo Williams has done a decent job by himself this year, and it looks like Greg Olsen might be consistent enough to keep the offense more balanced than in the past.  They've shown some pretty good competitiveness against the Seahawks and the apparently-terrible Giants, and that's partially due to their improved defense.  I bet they outperform expectations over the rest of the year.

18. Baltimore Ravens (2-2) -- So I thought that when they fired Cam Cameron they were done with the wild swings in run-pass ratio and general offensive output?  Joe Flacco remains massively overpaid and Ray Rice criminally underutilized, and if they had some better output from that side of the ball people might notice that the defense is actually better than last year.

17. Tennessee Titans (3-1) -- It's a shame that Jake Locker got hurt, because this was a surprisingly good team on both sides of the ball, even with Chris Johnson having another underwhelming campaign.  The defense has done remarkably well considering how much of a doormat they were last year, and with two games remaining against the Jags, they could be one of the most-improved teams of '13.

16. San Diego Chargers (2-2) -- Philip Rivers has had a major renaissance this season, making Antonio Gates look surprisingly not-dead-yet. I'm not sure anyone has a good explanation for why he has tanked the past couple years, but it looks like he's at least temporarily back to the future. We'll see how it goes when he goes up against the cream of the AFC West. 

15. Cincinnati Bengals (2-2) -- Andy Dalton is really holding this offense back with his erratic play, considering the bevy of young skill players (and BenJarvus Green-Ellis) he has at his disposal. The defense is legit up front, and with the rest of the division being mediocre they should really be better. Dalton has to show some more improvement to keep from being a future pariah a la Matt Schaub. 

14. Dallas Cowboys (2-2) -- The offensive inconsistency is still there, but an average defense with an above-average quarterback can't be that much of a dud. The rest of the division is so awful that they could get in with a 2 game lead at 8-8, but they might be able to squeak in an above .500 record simply by virtue of beating on the other NFC-Leasters. 

13. Atlanta Falcons (1-3) -- I actually had no idea they were 1-3. These guys might be overrated here, but they've had some major offensive injury problems and have been half-decent on defense. If they get both Jackson and White back after the Week 6 bye, look out. 

12. Miami Dolphins (3-1) -- One of the two biggest positive surprises this year, Miami has a top-10 defense to go with an average offense with room to improve. They've played a decent schedule too, so if the Patriots falter after squeaking by a bit in the early going I could see them at least making Brady sweat. 

11. Indianapolis Colts (3-1) -- Andrew Luck was the forgotten man after the breakouts of the read-option quarterbacks, but with decent weapons, a new running back toy to take the pressure off, and an apparently substantially improved defense, it's hard to see them winning fewer than 10 games this year. 

10. Houston Texans (3-1) -- People are apparently burning Matt Schaub jerseys, and while I expected it to be the defense that regressed to bring the Texans down, the fact that there are more chinks in the offense's armor makes me hesitant. 

9. Green Bay Packers (1-2) -- This is mostly about the fact that they have Aaron Rodgers and should have won their last game against the Bengals, which would have made their record look good enough to justify me ranking them here. 

8. Chicago Bears (3-1) -- The offense has been a bit more productive under the new head coach, but there's still glimmers of Jay Cutler failing per usual.  The defense isn't as dominant as it has been, but they still somehow manage to stay ahead of the game in the turnover department.  Alshon Jeffery and Martellus Bennett may have contributed to the offensive improvement, and it's not like Urlacher was at the top of his game last year.

7. Detroit Lions (3-1) -- The offense has been particularly explosive because of the pass-run balance that Reggie Bush has provided, but his injury history and the inherent volatility of a Matthew-Stafford-run offense allows for a lot of late-game comebacks and blowups.  The defensive front appears to be at least somewhat living up to its promise even with the lame drama surrounding Ndamukong Suh.

6. San Francisco 49ers (2-2) -- I don't feel great about this one, but their two losses are against two teams that are playoff-bound, and they blew up the Packers in their first game.  Kaepernick hasn't shown consistency with a lacking receiving corps and the defense isn't as good as it has been, but if they focus on the running game like they did last year, they're a shoo-in for a Wild Card spot behind the best team in the NFC.

5. Kansas City Chiefs (4-0) -- As an Eagles fan, you have to feel pretty sad watching Andy Reid turn a 2-win team into what appears to be a surefire playoff team, but at the same time, you can't be that surprised.  A very similar roster with Matt Cassel at the controls had a surprise playoff season a couple years ago, and whatever you think of him, Alex Smith is better.  That being said, the schedule has been pretty friendly so far (three NFC East teams, conveniently enough for Reid), so don't expect them to be going 12-4 or anything.

4. New England Patriots (4-0) -- I don't feel that comfortable having them this high considering how close they've come to losing a few of these games, but it looks like Brady is getting more comfortable with his targets just in time for his big guns to start coming back.  The loss of Vince Wilfork should prove to be a heavy burden (independent of his size) for a defense that finally looked to be turning itself around after a few years of mediocrity.

3. Seattle Seahawks (4-0) -- The offense has been inconsistent at times, especially on the road, but they're a mortal lock for 7-1 at home, and if they split the road games, that's an 11-5 season in the bag.  Russell Wilson hasn't regressed like RGIII and Kaepernick have, and the defense is as advertised.  It also doesn't hurt to already have a road win at San Fran in the bag.

2. New Orleans Saints (4-0) -- Drew Brees is doing his thing with Jimmy Graham having another monster year, but the defense is really the story here.  They were quite possibly the worst defense in NFL history last season, and while even a below average defense might have guaranteed 10 wins with that offense, they appear to have an above-average unit that could portend a top-seed in the NFC.

1. Denver Broncos (4-0) -- I've seen it with my own two eyes, and it's kind of silly.  Yes, they've played some bad defenses and average-at-best offenses, but the ease with which they've covered pretty hefty spreads is impressive.  It seems like the obvious favorites this early in the season never actually win, so I can't say that I'd take them to win it all against the field, but I'd be pretty surprised to see them get anything but the top seed in the AFC heading into the playoffs.  However, we all know that that's not what people are concerned about.

Happy New Year!

Well, well, well, would you look at this!  It appears that the Jewish New Year and the Football New Year (if you will) are coinciding this year, making for quite the holiday for most of the country.  OK, maybe 99% of those people are into it for the football).  Rosh Hashanah brings in a time for repentance, prayer, and charity.  There will be plenty of prayer this weekend and for many more upcoming thanks to football, but I'm not really sure that we're in a position for repentance, as there haven't been any games played.  But maybe I can give you guys a bit of charity in providing the set-'em-in-stone NFL season picks that we all know and love.  And I'm a man of forgiveness in this holiday season, so I'll even give you how well I did last year, and you can forgive me :D

AFC EAST
	2012 Predicted	2012 Actual	Difference	2013 Predicted
Patriots	13-3	12-4	-1	11-5
Dolphins	3-13	7-9	4	7-9
Jets	6-10	6-10	0	5-12
Bills	7-9	6-10	-1	5-12

I was pretty accurate with this division last season with the exception of my underestimating Ryan Tannehill, Reggie Bush, and the Dolphins' D.  The Patriots lost a couple offensive weapons (and that doesn't include the guns Aaron Hernandez used to have), but their defense has improved over the past couple years and there's always Brady.  The Dolphins should be passable offensively and defensively, but I don't have enough confidence in Tannehill or Lamar Miller to put them higher.  The Jets won't be as bad as you would think, especially if Chris Ivory does what I think he can do and New York's most eligible Butt-Fumbler gets back under center (yes, I do actually think he's their best option).  The Bills have some serious quarterback and defense problems, and I'm not sure they will get out of CJ Spiller what everyone thinks they will after his breakout last year.

            

AFC NORTH
	2012 Predicted	2012 Actual	Difference	2013 Predicted
Ravens	12-4	10-6	-2	9-7
Bengals	8-8	10-6	2	10-6
Steelers	10-6	8-8	-2	9-7
Browns	3-13	5-11	2	7-9

I was 2 games off on all the teams in this division last year, which meant it was much more tightly bunched than I expected.  I have adjusted expectations this time around, predicting the top 3 teams to end up within 1 game of each other.  I think the Ravens weren't really that good last year and should be worse offensively, while the Steelers are already experiencing backfield issues and no longer have James Harrison.  There seems to be a lot of optimism around the Browns this preseason, and I'm buying it to some extent.  Their second-year QB/RB/WR combo could come into their own, and their defense was underrated last season, but they are still likely to be the worst team in this division so I can't expect much from them.

            

AFC SOUTH
	2012 Predicted	2012 Actual	Difference	2012 Predicted
Texans	10-6	12-4	2	11-5
Colts	5-11	11-5	6	9-7
Titans	9-7	6-10	-3	6-10
Jaguars	5-11	2-14	-3	6-10

The Colts were (retrospectively) unsurprisingly the biggest positive surprise based on my expectations, while my optimism about the Titans' and Jaguars' progress was not rewarded.  I also expected the Texans to regress slightly, and while there were chinks in their defensive armor, the offense was as good as it's been in recent years.  I still expect Houston to be tops in the division, partially because I expect the league to catch up to the Colts a bit after their emotional run last season.  The Titans tried very hard to improve their offensive line, and that should help Jake Locker get comfortable and Chris Johnson get more room, but their defense needs to improve for them to go anywhere.  There's similar optimism about the Jags' offense as with the Browns, but I have less confidence in Blaine Gabbert and the Jags' defense for whatever reason. 

            

AFC WEST
	2012 Predicted	2012 Actual	Difference	2012 Predicted
Broncos	10-6	13-3	3	12-4
Chargers	9-7	7-9	-2	7-9
Raiders	7-9	4-12	-3	3-13
Chiefs	8-8	2-14	-6	8-8

             
The Broncos did even better than I expected last year thanks to an excellent defense and a better-than-expected Peyton Manning, while the rest of the division languished in mediocrity at best.  The Chiefs were especially disappointing despite Jamaal Charles' excellent season, and I expect them to get back on the horse this season with their new average quarterback and, odd as it is to say, Andy Reid at the helm.  The Raiders have no quarterback, no offensive line, and no defense, and should be the doormat of the AFC in the coming year.  The Chargers will be good enough to beat decent teams, but bad enough to lose to bad teams, and will just sort of be there until something happens with Philip Rivers one way or the other.  I expect the Broncos' defense to regress with Bailey and Miller out for a bit and Dumervil over in Baltimore, but their offense should be even more explosive with the additions of Wes Welker and Julius Thomas.

NFC EAST
	2012 Predicted	2012 Actual	Difference	2013 Predicted
Redskins	6-10	10-6	4	8-8
Giants	8-8	9-7	1	8-8
Cowboys	7-9	8-8	1	9-7
Eagles	10-6	4-12	-6	6-10

The Redskins joined the Colts as surprising teams thanks to their top-2 rookie QBs, while the Eagles massively disappointed after an equivalently disappointing 2012, and that caused the aforementioned Reid to be ousted.  I think Chip Kelly's offense will help things, but it's not as revolutionary as people think it will be (the Patriots are basically already using it, but they have Tom Brady), and that defense is going to be brutal.  The 'Skins are going to have to cut back on RGIII's run options, which will reduce the effectiveness of the offense even without considering that he might be limited by his injury.  The Giants are already banged up and out of sync offensively, but they always manage to be competitive.  I don't feel at all confident in this given their history and the division's, but I think the Cowboys' offense is going to really shine if they can get anything useful from the running game that was way below average last season.

            

NFC NORTH
	2012 Predicted	2012 Actual	Difference	2013 Predicted
Packers	13-3	11-5	-2	11-5
Vikings	3-13	10-6	7	6-10
Bears	9-7	10-6	1	9-7
Lions	9-7	4-12	-5	7-9

It's hard for a team not to overachieve when they have a guy rush for 2000 yards, but with P. Harv's abbreviated breakout and Christian Ponder's not-messing-it-up-too-much, the Vikings really had a surprising year.  At the same time, the Lions' offense had a lot of red zone issues and the defensive line wasn't as disruptive as Ndamukong Suh would lead you to believe, so they fell of the cliff.  The Packers regressed a bit last season thanks to their defense and lack of running game, and while they should be able to run the ball with Lacy added, they've lost some passing weapons, a left tackle, and Charles Woodson.  The Bears are going to be good enough offensively and defensively to be competitive, but I don't see them making the playoffs if their defense isn't as opportunistic as last season.

            

NFC SOUTH
	2012 Predicted	2012 Actual	Difference	2013 Predicted
Falcons	12-4	13-3	1	11-5
Saints	10-6	7-9	-3	10-6
Buccaneers	7-9	7-9	0	7-9
Panthers	7-9	7-9	0	6-10

I was really good at picking this division last year, although I didn't expect the Saints' loss of Sean Payton for the year to have as much of an impact as it did.  That said, he's back and is probably mad, so they could have an '07 Patriots kind of vindictive approach offensively that gets them right back on the horse.  The Falcons probably hit their peak last year, so I expect them to decline a bit, especially if the Saints are back in business.  The Bucs had a great start and then fell off towards the end of last year, and while I think Freeman isn't likely to improve any, the defensive backfield and offensive line are going to be better, so this 7-9 mark may be an underestimate.  The Panthers just don't seem to have enough weapons offensively to optimize Cam Newton, and their defense still leaves something to be desired, so I can't see them getting out of the cellar in this division.

            

NFC WEST
	2012 Predicted	2012 Actual	Difference	2013 Predicted
49ers	10-6	11-4-1	1.5	10-6
Seahawks	7-9	11-5	4	10-6
Rams	6-10	7-8-1	1.5	8-8
Cardinals	7-9	5-11	-2	7-9

It's hard to believe that three years ago the winner of this division was 7-9, and this year I'm picking the loser to be 7-9.  The Seahawks were the third team to really overachieve with a rookie QB, while the 49ers continued their dominance despite switching quarterbacks midseason.  I expect both quarterbacks to be figured out a bit (probably Wilson more than Kaepernick because I trust Kaep's arm more), but those defenses are solid.  Also, the Rams' new offensive weapons and the Cardinals' actually professional quarterback should make the bottom half of the division more competitive and keep the top half less dominant.  

           

So how would the playoffs look if my word were law?

AFC	NFC
Patriots	Packers
Bengals	Falcons
Texans	Cowboys
Broncos	49ers
Colts	Seahawks
Ravens	Saints

That's actually a significantly-below-average amount of turnover for playoff teams (only the Cowboys and Saints would represent new teams from last year), but I feel like the new super-special-awesome young quarterbacks have provided a stability in the upper-middle-class that wasn't there in previous years.  I think the Bengals and Colts are the most vulnerable of the remaining teams that made it last year due to competition in the division and some potential regression at the QB position, but I really don't feel at all confident in taking any of the middle-tier teams in the AFC to make a jump.  Especially not the Jets, in case you were wondering.