Not
sure if you’ve heard, but football season starts in exactly a week, albeit in a
very teasing way, with Giants/Cowboys followed by 3 days of emptiness. As anyone with a public forum for their
opinion would do, I’ll take the upcoming time as an opportunity to bombard you
with predictions about what will happen over the next 17 weeks. This time around, it’ll be team-based,
as in where will each team finish in 2012. Next time, it will be one of those cliché “guys I have
strong opinions about in fantasy” pieces, but I’ll try to figure out a way to
spice it up so you don’t go crying to Matthew Berry.
As
for the here and the now, there’s really not much else to say here, except to
give a little recap of how I did last year at such a prediction game. After all, what’s the point in making
predictions if you’re not held accountable for them afterward? I’ll give each team’s predicted record
this time last season, their actual record, and my prediction for 2012. Sound good? Of course not, this is a text medium. Moving on.
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AFC EAST
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2011 Predicted
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2011 Actual
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Difference
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2012 Predicted
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Patriots
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12-4
|
13-3
|
1
|
13-3
|
|
Jets
|
11-5
|
8-8
|
3
|
6-10
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Dolphins
|
7-9
|
6-10
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1
|
3-13
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Bills
|
3-13
|
6-10
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3
|
7-9
|
OK,
so I had a little more confidence in the Jets than was appropriate, but I think
that a lot of people had them doing better than they ended up doing, what with
their defensive reputation at the time.
The Bills started off making me look really stupid, but fell off quickly
with the regression of Ryan Fitzpatrick and the injury to Fred Jackson. Compared to a worst-case scenario of
being off by 41 games (i.e. picking the Pats to go 0-16, Jets 16-0, Dolphins
16-0, Bills 16-0), missing by 8 is pretty good, no?
As
for this season, I get what the motivation is behind the Dolphins ridding
themselves of malcontents Brandon Marshall and Vontae Davis, but to everyone
else it just looks like they’re throwing away all of their good players. No way they do better than 5-11. The Jets look like the Red Sox of
football, but without the big cuddly fan favorite to keep things light – Nick
Mangold’s beard is gone, right? – there will be some more regression from two
straight AFC Championship appearances.
And don’t even start with Tebow.
The Pats gained Brandon Lloyd but lost some guys on the offensive line,
so we’ll call it a push, and the Bills improved their defense but still have
the afraid-of-winter Fitzpatrick at the controls.
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AFC NORTH
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2011 Predicted
|
2011 Actual
|
Difference
|
2012 Predicted
|
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Steelers
|
12-4
|
12-4
|
0
|
10-6
|
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Ravens
|
11-5
|
12-4
|
1
|
12-4
|
|
Browns
|
6-10
|
4-12
|
2
|
3-13
|
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Bengals
|
3-13
|
9-7
|
6
|
8-8
|
I
haven’t looked at the rest of the divisions, but the Bengals have to be one of
my worst calls last year. I cited
the loss of Palmer, Ochocinco, Owens, and Johnathan Joseph as death knells, but
failed to see the potential in the Red Rifle, Andy Dalton, and some guy named
AJ Green. The Steelers and Ravens
were easy to predict, as they’re almost always good, and I had a little more confidence
in the growth pattern of Colt McCoy (and the health of Peyton Hillis) than
maybe I should have. Out of a
possible 45 games I could have been off by, 9 is still not bad.
This
year, I see the continued issues on the Steelers’ offensive line (with an
injury to their top pick on the line this year already) as well as the injury
to Mendenhall and Wallace’s recently-ended holdout as reason enough to
downgrade them. The Ravens have
looked great so far in the preseason, but even with a downgrade to the Steelers
I have concerns about their defense (read: T-Sizzle, Ball So Hard U alum, being
hurt), so I can’t move them up any.
I think the Bengals snuck up on some teams last year, so I don’t think
they’ll get any better absent any real upgrades offensively. And with a rookie QB who’s struggled
thus far and a rookie running back who hasn’t played yet, the Browns really
can’t be expected to do much at all.
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AFC SOUTH
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|
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2011 Predicted
|
2011 Actual
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Difference
|
2012 Predicted
|
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Texans
|
10-6
|
10-6
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0
|
10-6
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|
Colts
|
9-7
|
2-14
|
7
|
5-11
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Jaguars
|
5-11
|
5-11
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0
|
5-11
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Titans
|
5-11
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9-7
|
4
|
9-7
|
Well
it didn’t take long to find a prediction worse than the Bengals, huh. Granted, at the time there was still a
strong chance Peyton Manning would play, so you really can’t fault me here. Frankly, it should have been worse,
because the Texans lost two quarterbacks and Andre Johnson for several weeks,
and the Jaguars somehow managed to win 5 games with Blaine Gabbert starting
most games. Missed 11 out of a
possible 44 here – moving the wrong direction.
With
Andrew Luck in the fold, the Colts should be better, but an entirely revamped
offense and defense (did I hear that their 90-man roster had 40+ rookies on
it?) limit the team’s upside. The
Texans did have some major injuries last year, but the division wasn’t very
good for the most part and their defense was much better than expected, so I’m
seeing a bit of a downturn. The
Titans have a theoretically rebounding Chris Johnson and might get some Kenny
Britt this year, but who knows what their defense or Jake Locker will do over
the course of a season. The
Jaguars will be blacked out, so who really cares.
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AFC WEST
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|
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|
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2011 Predicted
|
2011 Actual
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Difference
|
2012 Predicted
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Chargers
|
11-5
|
8-8
|
3
|
9-7
|
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Chiefs
|
7-9
|
7-9
|
0
|
8-8
|
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Raiders
|
7-9
|
8-8
|
1
|
7-9
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Broncos
|
5-11
|
8-8
|
3
|
10-6
|
The
tightest division I’ve ever seen, it was hard for anyone to make really
terrible predictions about these teams.
Frankly, the Chiefs’ record should have been better had Jamaal Charles,
Tony Moeaki, Matt Cassel, and Eric Berry not gotten hurt, and who knows what
would have happened to the Broncos if God hadn’t intervened. While getting 7 wrong seems good, being
out of a possible 33 makes it my second-worst thus far.
The
Chargers (especially Philip Rivers) disappointed last year, and after losing
Vincent Jackson and having questions about whether Ryan Mathews can shoulder
the load in the backfield (get it?), I don’t see them improving much. The Broncos gained Peyton Manning, but
I have serious concerns about how consistent he can be, and the rest of the
division is still pretty good, so I’ll give them a good-not-great record. The Chiefs get all of the
aforementioned players back and add Peyton Hillis, so they should be pretty
formidable, but Matt Cassel is still Matt Cassel. As for the Raiders, it would be really exciting to see a
top-flight quarterback run their offense with their skill position
players. What’s that, Carson
Palmer? Oh, I thought you said
something.
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NFC EAST
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|
|
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2011 Predicted
|
2011 Actual
|
Difference
|
2012 Predicted
|
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Eagles
|
11-5
|
8-8
|
3
|
10-6
|
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Cowboys
|
11-5
|
8-8
|
3
|
7-9
|
|
Giants
|
9-7
|
9-7
|
0
|
8-8
|
|
Redskins
|
4-12
|
5-11
|
1
|
6-10
|
Let’s
just glaze over the Eagles’ season, hm?
How bout them Cowboys? They
once again disappointed, fading down the stretch and missing the playoffs. I had the Giants pegged perfectly,
although I would have had them missing the playoffs instead of winning the
Super Bowl. Blech. The ‘Skins were slightly more competent
than I predicted with Sexy Rexy at the controls, but still weren’t very good. Missed 7 out of a possible 36, which is
one of my better prediction jobs.
Perhaps familiarity helped?
Assuming
Michael Vick plays a decent enough amount of games and the Eagles’ defense improves
slightly, 10-6 is a very doable record.
The Cowboys have serious concerns on their offensive line and with their
pass-catchers (Austin has a hamstring, Witten has a spleen, and Bryant has a
babysitter), so even with all that talent, they’ll be hard pressed to get big
production out of them. Yes, the
G-Men won the Super Bowl, but keep in mind that this is the second time that
they’ve done that after being mediocre for most of the season. Don’t overrate them. The ‘Skins make a major upgrade at
quarterback, even with RGIII being a rookie, and add a half-decent top receiver
in Pierre Garcon, so they should be more competitive.
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NFC NORTH
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2011 Predicted
|
2011 Actual
|
Difference
|
2012 Predicted
|
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Packers
|
12-4
|
15-1
|
3
|
13-3
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Bears
|
8-8
|
8-8
|
0
|
9-7
|
|
Lions
|
8-8
|
10-6
|
2
|
9-7
|
|
Vikings
|
7-9
|
3-13
|
4
|
3-13
|
Raise
your hand if you had the Packers going 15-1 before the season started last
year. I talked about Rodgers
throwing for 4500 yards and 40 TD’s (he had 4600 and 45), but that’s a lot to
project. I was wary on the Lions,
but they outperformed many people’s expectations, and until Matt Forte and Jay
Cutler got hurt, the Bears were doing similarly. The Donovan McNabb experiment was terrible for the Vikes,
and it’s not like Christian Ponder did much more for them. Missed 9 out of a possible 46, though,
which is actually my best prediction thus far.
The
Pack had the worst defense in the league and a mechanistic offense last year,
and I think both sort of come back to the pack (pun INTENDED) this year. The Bears look good on paper, but I
can’t really throw my trust behind Cutler and an Ur-lacking defense (I’M ON
FIRE, BABY!). The Lions’ defense
was inconsistent last year, and someone other than Calvin Johnson really needs
to step up on that offense for their success to continue. The Vikings will probably not win a
game in their division, so they’re going to struggle to win even 5 games with
Peterson recovering from an ACL/MCL tear.
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NFC SOUTH
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|
|
|
|
|
|
2011 Predicted
|
2011 Actual
|
Difference
|
2012 Predicted
|
|
Falcons
|
12-4
|
10-6
|
2
|
12-4
|
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Saints
|
11-5
|
13-3
|
2
|
10-6
|
|
Buccaneers
|
10-6
|
4-12
|
6
|
7-9
|
|
Panthers
|
3-13
|
6-10
|
3
|
7-9
|
OK,
so sue me for underestimating His Breesness. And overreacting to an explosive preseason for the Falcons
(DO YOU SEE WHAT’S HAPPENING HERE?
THEY DID THIS LAST YEAR TOO!).
Obviously I was quite wrong about the capabilities of Josh Freeman and
Cam Newton, but a lot of pundits had Tampa as a young up-and-coming team, but
they just fell apart after a certain point in the season. By far my worst set of picks, I missed
a whopping 13 out of 45.
I
already made my all-caps pitch about the Falcons, so we’ll move along. The Saints lost a lot of players /
coaches and may lose more than that with Hurricane Isaac coming, and while they
should overcome to some extent, that along with a change in defensive
philosophy tempers my expectations.
The Bucs added Vincent Jackson and rookie Doug Martin for the offense,
so they should be a little better, but in this division it’s not their
year. Cam Newton needs to get more
consistent and to find another passing target for me to move them higher,
simple as that.
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NFC WEST
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|
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2011 Predicted
|
2011 Actual
|
Difference
|
2012 Predicted
|
|
Rams
|
8-8
|
2-14
|
6
|
6-10
|
|
Cardinals
|
8-8
|
8-8
|
0
|
7-9
|
|
49ers
|
6-10
|
13-3
|
7
|
10-6
|
|
Seahawks
|
4-12
|
7-9
|
3
|
7-9
|
This
is the division that most prognosticators bombed, as the Rams flopped after a
promising rookie year from Sam Bradford and the 49ers vaulted to the top of the
NFC race. The Cardinals ended up
with a better record than most people would guess given that their quarterback
situation was brutal (and, in fact, has not changed this season). The ‘Hawks were one of the teams I
thought were actually trying to throw the season to get Andrew Luck, so they
obviously outperformed my expectations.
Saving the worst for last, clearly, as I was 16 games off out of a
possible 44, more than 40% incorrect.
There’s
simply no way that an Alex-Smith-led team goes better than 11-5 in two straight
seasons. On a similar vein, I have
enough faith in Sam Bradford’s talent to give him a few wins back this season. The Seahawks have an exciting new
quarterback in Russell Wilson, but he is a rookie, and I don’t think Marshawn
Lynch does quite what he did last year in a contract year. If you have two quarterbacks, you have
none, so we’ll leave the Cardinals analysis at that.
So
what did we end up with? Here’s
what my playoff teams look like (arbitrarily breaking ties):
|
AFC
|
NFC
|
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Patriots
|
Packers
|
|
Ravens
|
Falcons
|
|
Texans
|
Eagles
|
|
Broncos
|
49ers
|
|
Steelers
|
Saints
|
|
Chargers
|
Bears
|
