In
what could probably best be described as “throwing good money after bad,” the
Phillies followed up the mega-contracts of Ryan Howard, Roy Halladay, Cliff
Lee, and even Jonathan Papelbon with a 6-year, $144 million deal for the
current ace of their pitching staff, Cole Hamels. Now, I’m no Wharton grad, so I’m not going to get into the
economics of the $24 million per year the Phils will be shelling out on top of
the $20+ million each for Halladay, Lee, and Howard. I’m more interested in whether or not, given the state of
the pitching market, Hamels has been or will be worth the investment the
Phillies made in him.
Let’s
go to the stats first. Here are
Hamels’ ranks among MLB starters since 2007 (his first season over 140 IP), and
since 2010 (his first year with the cutter in his pitch repertoire):
|
2007-12
|
2007-09
|
2010-12
|
Innings
|
1159.2
(10th)
|
604.1
(15th)
|
555.1
(15th)
|
ERA
|
3.29
(19th)
|
3.57
(23rd)
|
2.98
(9th)
|
Strikeouts
|
1076
(6th)
|
541
(11th)
|
535
(7th)
|
Wins
|
76
(7th)
|
39
(22nd)
|
37
(14th)
|
WAR
|
22.9
(12th)
|
11.8
(16th)
|
11.1
(14th)
|
The
first thing that should jump out of this table is the dramatic improvement in
ERA in the past three years, which by the end of this season will be
accompanied by improvements in each of the other four categories shown. At the very least, these statistics
indicate that Hamels is one of the 15 best pitchers in the game, but that’s
hardly a case for a contract that has the second-highest total value of any
starting pitcher contract ever.
However,
one key thing to look at here is the market context that was at play. According to FanGraphs, one Win Above
Replacement has been worth about $4.5 million over the past few years. By this metric, eleven starting
pitchers “earned” at least $24 million in 2011, the per-season amount of
Hamels’ contract. Can Hamels be at
least that good for the next six years, after being just outside that range for
the past six? Age notwithstanding,
it seems plausible.
How
does this deal look compared to recent big-time contracts? Here are the three-year totals
(including the year that they signed the deal) for a few other pitchers who
received big contracts in the past few years, CC Sabathia, Cliff Lee, Jered
Weaver, and Matt Cain:
|
Sabathia
’06-08
|
Lee
’08-10
|
Weaver
’09-11
|
Cain
’10-12
|
Age
|
26-28
|
29-32
|
27-29
|
25-27
|
Innings
|
686.2
(4th)
|
667.1
(5th)
|
671
(8th)
|
579.2
(6th)
|
ERA
|
3.03
(2nd)
|
2.98
(8th)
|
3.03
(10th)
|
2.95
(8th)
|
Strikeouts
|
632
(2nd)
|
536
(16th)
|
605
(11th)
|
484
(18th)
|
Wins
|
48
(4th)
|
48
(6th)
|
47
(5th)
|
35
(20th)
|
WAR
|
20.2
(1st)
|
20.9
(2nd)
|
15.3
(12th)
|
11.5
(12th)
|
Contract
|
7
yr, $23M/yr
|
5
yr, $24M/yr
|
5
yr, $17M/yr
|
5
yr, $22.5M/yr
|
It’s
clear that Sabathia was at worst the fourth best pitcher in the league prior to
signing his megadeal, and while the length of the contract is suspect for a
pitcher of his girth / age, he warranted the record investment. Lee was clearly better than Hamels
during the stretch prior to his contract, but there is no chance that he lives up to the worth of the contract considering
that it started when he was 32.
Both Weaver and Cain provide closer comparisons to Hamels, although both
players’ contracts look significantly more team-friendly considering the yearly
salary of Weaver and the youth of Cain.
Based on reports around the league, it seems like Hamels would have
received even more in the open market, despite the fact that the contract he
ended up signing appears bloated already.
A more reasonable contract would probably have been in the realm of
Cain’s $112.5 million deal over 5 years.
So
what are the chances that Hamels actually lives up to this contract? I’m not seeing it. By sabermetric standards, if Hamels
copied his past six seasons, he’d produce about 24 WAR, which fewer than 30
pitchers have accomplished in their age 29-34 seasons since 1970. At $4.5 million per WAR, that’s good
for $108 million over 6 years (which is right in the ballpark of what Weaver’s
contract would look like with an extra year on it). That’s solid, but almost $40 million short of what he’s
being paid. He would have to
garner 32 total WAR to earn the value of his contract, which would represent a
1.3 WAR increase per year over his career average. To clarify, that’s the difference between Weaver / Cain and
Justin Verlander over the past six years, or the difference between Cain’s
220-inning, 2.88 ERA 2011 season and Zack Greinke’s 172-inning, 3.83 ERA 2011
season.
While
I certainly agree that it was the right thing for the Phillies to do to lock up
Cole Hamels, I don’t think that his performance will live up to his price. Having said that, at least Ruben Amaro
Jr. didn’t make as crippling a contract decision as he did with the 5-year,
$120+ million contracts for 32-year olds Ryan Howard and Cliff Lee.